Upside case
Bull case
$16-79.8%
The bull case prices CRCL at 18x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 12 covering CRCL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
4
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$125
+55.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$8 – $16
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
89.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.4B
CRCL price targets
Three scenarios for where CRCL stock could go
Current
~$80
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $80
Bear
$8
Base
$12
Bull
$16
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$12-84.7%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$8-90.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 81x multiple contraction could push CRCL down roughly 90% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Circle Internet Group
CRCL · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Circle Internet Group operates a blockchain-based financial infrastructure platform focused on stablecoins — digital currencies pegged to traditional assets like the U.S. dollar. It generates revenue primarily through interest earned on reserves backing its USDC stablecoin and transaction fees from its payments and treasury services platform. The company's key advantage is its regulatory-first approach and deep integration with traditional financial systems, making USDC one of the most trusted and widely adopted stablecoins in regulated markets.
Market Cap
$21.4B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
-$79M
Net Margin
-2.8%
CRCL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
6 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+149.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.02/$-1.10
Revenue
$658M/$646M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.19
Revenue
$740M/$708M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.43/$0.16
Revenue
$770M/$749M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.21/$0.19
Revenue
$694M/$715M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.02/$-1.10 | +192.7% | $658M/$646M | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.19 | +234.7% | $740M/$708M | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.43/$0.16 | +161.6% | $770M/$749M | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.21/$0.19 | +8.1% | $694M/$715M | -2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.2B
+12.1% YoY
FY2
$3.8B
+19.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.11
+133.9% YoY
FY2
$0.61
+454.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$509M
FCF Margin: 17.8%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.26
Expected Revenue
$731M
CRCL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CRCL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $110M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription and Services
77.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Subscription and Services is the largest disclosed segment at 77.2% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CRCL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $34 — implies -57.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
57.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CRCL
-276.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
1232% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CRCL
-276.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
2137% discount
vs CRCL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-276.7x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
89.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+375%
Financial Services
10.7x
+736%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-276.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-1232%
Financial Services
13.6x
-2137%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Financial Services
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Financial Services
11.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
40.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+96%
Financial Services
11.1x
+264%
5Y Avg
36.3x
+12%
Price/Sales
7.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+153%
Financial Services
2.3x
+235%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+12%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Financial Services
2.63%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CRCL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CRCL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 89.4x | 18.8x+375% | 10.7x+736% | — |
| Trailing PE | -276.7x | 24.4x-1232% | 13.6x-2137% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 11.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | 40.5x | 20.7x+96% | 11.1x+264% | 36.3x+12% |
| Price/Sales | 7.8x | 3.1x+153% | 2.3x+235% | 7.0x+12% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.63% | — |
CRCL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCRCL Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
CRCL generates -2.6% ROE and -0.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-4.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.33
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
-2.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-3.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$77.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$77.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
-2.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
267M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCRCL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Subscription and Services dependence
Subscription and Services contributes 77.2% of the disclosed revenue mix. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
CRCL trades at -276.7x trailing earnings versus 24.4x for the S&P 500 and 13.6x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of $8.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $3.2B in revenue (12.1% growth) and $0.11 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $509M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CRCL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Circle Internet Group already operates from a position of scale, with 7.2% gross margin, -4.6% operating margin, and $509M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Subscription and Services still matters
Subscription and Services accounts for 77.2% of disclosed revenue. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $125, or 55.3% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches $16. If $3.2B in forward revenue and $0.11 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CRCL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$80.23
52W Range Position
12%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$49.90
+60.8% from the low
52-Week High
$298.99
-73.2% from the high
1 Month
-27.97%
3 Month
-39.60%
YTD
-3.9%
1 Year
-59.8%
3Y CAGR
+37.3%
5Y CAGR
+20.9%
10Y CAGR
+10.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CRCL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
89.4x
vs 30.0x median
+198% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.1%
vs +5.7% median
+113% above peer median
Net Margin
-2.8%
vs 13.8% median
-120% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CRC CRCL Circle Internet Group | $21.4B | 89.4x | +12.1% | -2.8% | Buy | +55.3% |
COI COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | $43.0B | 263.7x | +9.5% | 13.8% | Buy | +44.5% |
MST MSTR Strategy Inc | $37.6B | 2.4x | +3.1% | -2519.4% | Buy | +123.6% |
HOO HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | $97.4B | 58.5x | +12.2% | 41.1% | Buy | -0.0% |
SOF SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $22.8B | 30.0x | +5.7% | 10.1% | Hold | +19.5% |
PYP PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $37.5B | 8.0x | +4.5% | 15.0% | Hold | +18.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCRCL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $125, implying +55.3% from the current price of $80. The bear case scenario is $8 and the bull case is $16.
02What is the CRCL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CRCL is $125 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (+136.8% from today), and the low-end target is $77 (-4.0%). The base case model target is $12.
03Is Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock overvalued in 2026?
CRCL trades at 89.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CRCL in 2026 are: (1) Subscription and Services dependence — Subscription and Services contributes 77. (2) Valuation de-rating — CRCL trades at -276. (3) Estimate execution — The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $3. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Circle Internet Group's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CRCL will report consensus revenue of $3.2B (+12.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.11 (+133.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.8B in revenue.
06When does Circle Internet Group (CRCL) report its next earnings?
Circle Internet Group is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $0.26 and revenue of $731M. Over recent quarters, CRCL has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Circle Internet Group generate?
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) generated $509M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.8%. CRCL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).