Upside case
Bull case
$1372+138.3%
DE would need investors to value it at roughly 77x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Deere & Company (DE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
19 bullish · 6 bearish · 46 covering DE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
21
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$681
+18.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$247 – $1372
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $156.1B
DE price targets
Three scenarios for where DE stock could go
Current
~$576
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $576
Bear
$247
Base
$647
Bull
$1372
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$647+12.3%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$247-57.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 18x multiple contraction could push DE down roughly 57% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Deere & Company
DE · NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachineryOctober year-end
Deere & Company is a leading manufacturer of agricultural, construction, and forestry equipment. It generates revenue primarily from equipment sales — with agriculture machinery making up about 70% of sales — supplemented by financial services and parts/repair operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its precision agriculture technology ecosystem — including its John Deere Operations Center platform — which creates high switching costs for farmers through data integration and automation.
Market Cap
$156.1B
Revenue TTM
$45.9B
Net Income TTM
$4.1B
Net Margin
8.9%
DE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$6.64/$5.56
Revenue
$12.5B/$10.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$4.75/$4.57
Revenue
$11.8B/$10.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.93/$3.84
Revenue
$12.1B/$9.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.42/$2.02
Revenue
$8.0B/$7.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $6.64/$5.56 | +19.4% | $12.5B/$10.8B | +16.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.75/$4.57 | +3.9% | $11.8B/$10.4B | +13.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.93/$3.84 | +2.3% | $12.1B/$9.8B | +23.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.42/$2.02 | +19.8% | $8.0B/$7.6B | +5.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$42.9B
-6.5% YoY
FY2
$45.0B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.57
+16.8% YoY
FY2
$20.78
+18.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.5B
FCF Margin: 12.0%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.71
Expected Revenue
$11.6B
DE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $51.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Production & Precision Ag (PPA)
39.8%
+47.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
58.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Production & Precision Ag (PPA) is the largest disclosed segment at 39.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 47.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 58.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
DE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $319 — implies -44.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
44.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DE
31.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+24% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
DE
31.1x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
+21% premium
vs DE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.1x
vs
5Y Average
17.3x
+80% premium
Forward PE
32.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+69%
Industrials
20.7x
+56%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+24%
Industrials
25.7x
+21%
5Y Avg
17.3x
+80%
PEG Ratio
1.91x
S&P 500
1.72x
+11%
Industrials
1.64x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+31%
Industrials
13.7x
+46%
5Y Avg
13.7x
+45%
Price/FCF
48.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+129%
Industrials
21.2x
+128%
5Y Avg
48.9x
-1%
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+12%
Industrials
1.6x
+120%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+50%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
S&P 500
1.87%
-41%
Industrials
1.27%
-13%
5Y Avg
1.24%
-11%
| Metric | DE | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg DE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.3x | 19.1x+69% | 20.7x+56% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.1x | 25.1x+24% | 25.7x+21% | 17.3x+80% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.91x | 1.72x+11% | 1.64x+16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.9x | 15.2x+31% | 13.7x+46% | 13.7x+45% |
| Price/FCF | 48.3x | 21.1x+129% | 21.2x+128% | 48.9x |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+12% | 1.6x+120% | 2.3x+50% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.10% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 1.24% |
DE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DE generates $5.5B in free cash flow at a 12.0% margin — returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$45.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$55.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.1× FCF
~10.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.33
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
272M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Levels & Capital Risk
Deere & Company carries a significant amount of debt, which can amplify returns but also heightens the risk of permanent capital loss if the company encounters financial distress. The debt burden increases vulnerability to market downturns and can constrain future investment and growth opportunities.
High Risk
Geopolitical Energy Price Risk
The DAX index is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, especially in the Middle East, that can disrupt oil and gas supplies. Such disruptions can drive energy prices upward, directly increasing operating costs for German industrial and automotive firms, thereby pressuring the index’s performance.
High Risk
Manufacturing & Product Performance Risk
Deere’s business can suffer if its equipment fails to perform as expected, potentially leading to costly repairs or recalls. Equipment failures not only erode customer confidence but also impose significant financial outlays that can materially affect profitability.
Medium
Financial Services Exposure Risk
The company’s financial services segment finances a substantial portion of its sales, making it vulnerable to adverse conditions in the financial industry. Economic downturns or tightening credit conditions could reduce demand for Deere’s financing products, impacting revenue streams.
Medium
Currency Exchange & Translation Risk
Deere reports in U.S. dollars while holding assets denominated in foreign currencies, exposing it to currency exchange and translation risks. Fluctuations in exchange rates can affect earnings, balance sheet values, and the company’s competitive positioning in global markets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Cyclical Recovery in Ag Equipment
The agricultural equipment sector is believed to be at a cyclical trough, with recovery expected to begin around fiscal year 2026. Deere is positioned to benefit as demand for new machinery rises as the cycle turns upward.
Inventory Normalization Completed
Deere has largely finished efforts to stabilize inventory levels, aligning production with retail demand. This inventory normalization reduces excess supply risk and supports stronger sales momentum.
Fed Rate Cuts Fuel Financing
Lower interest rates are expected to make financing agricultural equipment more affordable for farmers, encouraging investment in new machinery. This environment boosts demand for Deere’s products and improves sales prospects.
Strong Financials & Market Leadership
Deere has demonstrated margin resilience, consistent earnings beats, and aggressive share buybacks. The company holds a solid market capitalization and is a leader in its industry, reinforcing its competitive advantage.
Attractive Valuation Post Downturn
Deere’s current valuation is seen as not fully reflecting its upside potential as the cyclical downturn concludes. This makes it an attractive long‑term investment opportunity for investors seeking growth in the ag‑equipment space.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$575.79
52W Range Position
59%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$433.00
+33.0% from the low
52-Week High
$674.19
-14.6% from the high
1 Month
+0.12%
3 Month
+1.78%
YTD
+23.3%
1 Year
+19.6%
3Y CAGR
+14.7%
5Y CAGR
+8.7%
10Y CAGR
+21.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.3x
vs 23.3x median
+39% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-6.5%
vs -3.6% median
-79% below peer median
Net Margin
8.9%
vs 7.4% median
+20% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE DE Deere & Company | $156.1B | 32.3x | -6.5% | 8.9% | Hold | +18.2% |
CNH CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | $12.8B | 24.9x | -4.3% | 2.1% | Buy | +28.4% |
AGC AGCO AGCO Corporation | $8.3B | 19.8x | -3.8% | 7.4% | Buy | +11.1% |
CAT CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $420.9B | 39.2x | +5.2% | 13.3% | Buy | -8.8% |
TIT TITN Titan Machinery Inc. | $499M | — | -3.6% | -2.2% | Hold | -1.7% |
LNN LNN Lindsay Corporation | $1.1B | 21.7x | +4.1% | 11.0% | Hold | +16.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DE Dividend and Capital Return
DE returns 1.8% total yield, led by a 1.10% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
Payout Ratio
34.2%
How DE Splits Its Return
Div 1.10%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 1.10%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.33
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.8%
5Y Div CAGR
16.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
272M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.48 | +7.5% | 0.9% | 2.3% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | +13.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% |
| 2023 | $5.32 | +18.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% |
| 2022 | $4.51 | +15.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsDE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Deere & Company (DE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Deere & Company (DE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $681, implying +18.2% from the current price of $576. The bear case scenario is $247 and the bull case is $1372.
02What is the DE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DE is $681 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $793 (+37.7% from today), and the low-end target is $458 (-20.5%). The base case model target is $647.
03Is Deere & Company (DE) stock overvalued in 2026?
DE trades at 32.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Deere & Company (DE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DE in 2026 are: (1) Debt Levels & Capital Risk — Deere & Company carries a significant amount of debt, which can amplify returns but also heightens the risk of permanent capital loss if the company encounters financial distress. (2) Geopolitical Energy Price Risk — The DAX index is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, especially in the Middle East, that can disrupt oil and gas supplies. (3) Manufacturing & Product Performance Risk — Deere’s business can suffer if its equipment fails to perform as expected, potentially leading to costly repairs or recalls. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Deere & Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DE will report consensus revenue of $42.9B (-6.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.57 (+16.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.0B in revenue.
06When does Deere & Company (DE) report its next earnings?
Deere & Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $5.71 and revenue of $11.6B. Over recent quarters, DE has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Deere & Company generate?
Deere & Company (DE) generated $5.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.0%. DE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).