Upside case
Bull case
$24+132.1%
CNH would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 34x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
14
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 14 covering CNH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$13
+25.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$12 – $24
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.0B
CNH price targets
Three scenarios for where CNH stock could go
Current
~$10
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $10
Bear
$12
Base
$18
Bull
$24
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$18+76.2%
At 45x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$12+11.0%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CNH down roughly 11% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CNH Industrial N.V.
CNH · NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachineryDecember year-end
CNH Industrial is a global manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment sold through brands like Case IH and New Holland. It generates revenue primarily from equipment sales — about 80% of total — with the remaining 20% coming from its financial services arm that provides customer and dealer financing. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive global dealer network — over 3,600 locations — which creates strong customer relationships and service capabilities.
Market Cap
$13.0B
Revenue TTM
$18.1B
Net Income TTM
$386M
Net Margin
2.1%
CNH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.17/$0.16
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.13
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.19/$0.11
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.01/$0.01
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.17/$0.16 | +6.3% | $4.7B/$4.2B | +11.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.08/$0.13 | -38.9% | $4.4B/$4.3B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.19/$0.11 | +72.7% | $5.2B/$5.0B | +4.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.01/$0.01 | +0.0% | $3.8B/$3.8B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.8B
-1.8% YoY
FY2
$17.7B
-0.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.50
+60.1% YoY
FY2
$0.71
+43.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 10.2%
Next Earnings
August 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.11
Expected Revenue
$4.8B
CNH beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CNH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Agricultural Equipment
80.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Rest Of World And Other
50.0%
-29.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Agricultural Equipment is the largest disclosed segment at 80.7% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Rest Of World And Other is the largest reported region at 50.0%, down 29.9% YoY.
CNH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $27 — implies +159.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
159.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CNH
25.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CNH
25.5x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
In line with benchmark
vs CNH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.5x
vs
5Y Average
13.4x
+90% premium
Forward PE
25.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+37%
Industrials
21.2x
+22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+4%
Industrials
25.6x
-0%
5Y Avg
13.4x
+90%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-29%
Industrials
13.9x
-23%
5Y Avg
9.6x
+12%
Price/FCF
6.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
-69%
Industrials
20.0x
-68%
5Y Avg
10.8x
-40%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-77%
Industrials
1.6x
-54%
5Y Avg
0.9x
-17%
Dividend Yield
2.54%
S&P 500
1.91%
+33%
Industrials
1.21%
+109%
5Y Avg
2.61%
-3%
| Metric | CNH | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CNH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.8x | 18.8x+37% | 21.2x+22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.5x | 24.4x | 25.6x | 13.4x+90% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 15.2x-29% | 13.9x-23% | 9.6x+12% |
| Price/FCF | 6.5x | 20.7x-69% | 20.0x-68% | 10.8x-40% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-77% | 1.6x-54% | 0.9x-17% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.61% |
CNH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCNH Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CNH generates $1.8B in free cash flow at a 10.2% margin — returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-4.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.31
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$23.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
12.9× FCF
~12.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
2.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.27
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
65.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCNH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Cyclical Risk
Investors are re-pricing cyclical risk into CNH ahead of upcoming results, reflecting concerns about the agricultural downturn and market recovery delays.
High Risk
Financial Deterioration
Fitch Ratings revised CNH's Outlook to Negative due to a deteriorating financial profile from prolonged agricultural downturn and delayed market recovery.
Medium
Earnings Decline
Net income dropped significantly in Q1 2026 despite flat sales, indicating profitability challenges.
Medium
Market Sentiment
The stock's recent selloff aligns with a softer 2026 outlook, suggesting weakened investor confidence.
Lower
Operational Challenges
CNH faces near-term operational challenges while trying to position for future growth in agriculture and construction sectors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CNH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Dividend and Board Appointments
CNH Industrial approved a cash dividend and appointed new non-executive directors, signaling confidence in governance and shareholder returns.
Institutional Investor Confidence
Value-focused asset manager Tweedy Browne significantly increased its holdings in CNH, indicating strong institutional belief in the company's long-term prospects.
Strategic Market Position
CNH is a world-class leader in agriculture and construction equipment, with strong R&D capabilities and a global footprint driving sustainable growth.
Financial Services Support
CNH Capital provides comprehensive financing and leasing services, enhancing customer accessibility to CNH's equipment and supporting revenue streams.
Growth Drivers Intact
Despite near-term challenges, CNH's core growth drivers remain robust, with analysts highlighting its entrenched market position and potential for recovery.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CNH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$10.46
52W Range Position
28%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$9.00
+16.2% from the low
52-Week High
$14.27
-26.7% from the high
1 Month
-0.38%
3 Month
+3.36%
YTD
+11.9%
1 Year
-18.4%
3Y CAGR
-9.9%
5Y CAGR
-8.4%
10Y CAGR
+3.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CNH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.8x
vs 24.7x median
+5% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.8%
vs +0.3% median
-724% below peer median
Net Margin
2.1%
vs 9.1% median
-77% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNH CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | $13.0B | 25.8x | -1.8% | 2.1% | Buy | +25.1% |
DE DE Deere & Company | $159.1B | 32.6x | -1.9% | 10.2% | Hold | +17.1% |
AGC AGCO AGCO Corporation | $8.2B | 19.0x | -0.3% | 7.4% | Buy | +9.7% |
CAT CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $458.7B | 40.0x | +6.5% | 13.3% | Buy | -10.5% |
PCA PCAR PACCAR Inc | $62.6B | 21.0x | +0.3% | 9.1% | Hold | +7.1% |
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $99.0B | 24.7x | +6.3% | 7.9% | Buy | +4.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CNH Dividend and Capital Return
CNH returns 2.5% total yield, led by a 2.54% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.54%
Payout Ratio
65.3%
How CNH Splits Its Return
Div 2.54%
Dividend 2.54%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.27
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-6.1%
5Y Div CAGR
4.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.25 | -46.8% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $0.47 | +18.7% | 4.9% | 9.2% |
| 2023 | $0.40 | +31.1% | 4.0% | 7.2% |
| 2022 | $0.30 | +128.5% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsCNH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $13, implying +25.1% from the current price of $10. The bear case scenario is $12 and the bull case is $24.
02What is the CNH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CNH is $13 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $16 (+53.0% from today), and the low-end target is $11 (+0.4%). The base case model target is $18.
03Is CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) stock overvalued in 2026?
CNH trades at 25.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CNH in 2026 are: (1) Cyclical Risk — Investors are re-pricing cyclical risk into CNH ahead of upcoming results, reflecting concerns about the agricultural downturn and market recovery delays. (2) Financial Deterioration — Fitch Ratings revised CNH's Outlook to Negative due to a deteriorating financial profile from prolonged agricultural downturn and delayed market recovery. (3) Earnings Decline — Net income dropped significantly in Q1 2026 despite flat sales, indicating profitability challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CNH Industrial N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CNH will report consensus revenue of $17.8B (-1.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.50 (+60.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.7B in revenue.
06When does CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) report its next earnings?
CNH Industrial N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.11 and revenue of $4.8B. Over recent quarters, CNH has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does CNH Industrial N.V. generate?
CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.2%. CNH returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).