Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing DOW more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Dow Inc. (DOW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
11 bullish · 5 bearish · 35 covering DOW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
19
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
-3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.4B
DOW price targets
Three scenarios for where DOW stock could go
Current
~$41
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Dow Inc.
DOW · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicalsDecember year-end
Dow Inc. is a global materials science company that produces chemicals, plastics, and agricultural products used in packaging, infrastructure, and consumer goods. It generates revenue primarily through three segments: Packaging & Specialty Plastics (~50% of sales), Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure (~30%), and Performance Materials & Coatings (~20%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, integrated production facilities, and long-standing customer relationships in cyclical commodity markets.
Market Cap
$29.4B
Revenue TTM
$39.3B
Net Income TTM
-$2.8B
Net Margin
-7.0%
DOW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.42/$-0.17
Revenue
$10.1B/$10.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.19/$-0.31
Revenue
$10.0B/$10.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.34/$-0.46
Revenue
$9.5B/$9.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.14/$-0.39
Revenue
$9.8B/$9.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.42/$-0.17 | -142.1% | $10.1B/$10.2B | -1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.19/$-0.31 | +38.4% | $10.0B/$10.2B | -2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.34/$-0.46 | +26.7% | $9.5B/$9.5B | -0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.14/$-0.39 | +64.1% | $9.8B/$9.7B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$38.9B
-1.0% YoY
FY2
$36.7B
-5.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.32
+65.5% YoY
FY2
$-1.20
+9.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.0B
FCF Margin: -5.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DOW beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
DOW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $39.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Packaging & Specialty Plastics
50.9%
-8.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U.S.& Canada
39.5%
-3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Packaging & Specialty Plastics is the largest disclosed segment at 50.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 8.3% YoY.
U.S.& Canada is the largest reported region at 39.5%, down 3.8% YoY.
DOW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $46 — implies +13.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
13.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DOW
-11.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
144% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
DOW
-11.1x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
150% discount
vs DOW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-11.1x
vs
5Y Average
26.8x
141% discount
Forward PE
13.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-28%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-11.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-144%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-150%
5Y Avg
26.8x
-141%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Basic Materials
1.17x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-4%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+33%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+79%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Basic Materials
25.6x
—
5Y Avg
10.0x
—
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-77%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-61%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+9%
Dividend Yield
5.13%
S&P 500
1.87%
+175%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+288%
5Y Avg
6.27%
-18%
| Metric | DOW | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg DOW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.8x | 19.1x-28% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | -11.1x | 25.1x-144% | 22.3x-150% | 26.8x-141% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6x | 15.2x | 11.0x+33% | 8.2x+79% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 25.6x | 10.0x |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-77% | 1.9x-61% | 0.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 5.13% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 6.27% |
DOW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDOW Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
DOW returns 5.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$39.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-7.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
6.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-2.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-7.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-3.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-5.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
0.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-4.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-15.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.1%
Dividend
5.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.09
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
720M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDOW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory
Dow faces significant litigation and legal liabilities that could result in substantial financial penalties and reputational damage. The company’s exposure to regulatory investigations and potential class-action suits is a top risk factor. These legal challenges can materially affect earnings and cash flow.
High Risk
Finance & Corporate
Accounting and financial operations risks include potential misstatements and the need for additional capital to fund ongoing projects. Dow may face increased future funding requirements to support maintenance, reliability, and decarbonization initiatives. Such financial pressures could constrain free cash flow and impact dividend policy.
High Risk
Economic Cyclicality & Demand Weakness
Dow’s performance is highly cyclical, with demand in packaging, construction, infrastructure, consumer applications, and industrial markets driving volumes. Weakness in these end markets can lead to softened volumes and reduced plant utilization, eroding profitability. The company’s earnings are therefore sensitive to macroeconomic downturns.
Medium
Oversupply & Pricing Pressure
An oversupply of polyethylene has pressured pricing, especially for products with limited differentiation. This supply glut can compress margins and negatively affect earnings. Dow’s ability to maintain pricing power is therefore a key risk.
Medium
Feedstock & Energy Volatility
Fluctuations in the cost and availability of raw materials and energy—major components of production costs—pose a significant risk. Volatility in these inputs can erode margins and increase operating expenses. Dow’s profitability is therefore exposed to commodity price swings.
Medium
Environmental Regulations & Climate Change
Dow faces regulatory risks related to environmental rules, emissions costs, permitting complexities, and the need to invest in climate commitments. Compliance costs and potential penalties could materially impact operating expenses. The company’s long-term sustainability strategy is therefore contingent on evolving environmental legislation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DOW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
US GDP Growth & Fiscal Stimulus
Continued US GDP growth is projected at 2.0‑2.6%, bolstered by fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. This expansion is expected to lift corporate earnings across the Dow’s blue‑chip companies.
AI Investments Boost Corporate Earnings
Investments in Artificial Intelligence are anticipated to lift earnings across various sectors of the Dow. AI‑driven efficiencies and new product lines are expected to contribute to higher profitability.
Fed Rate Cuts Support Valuations
The Federal Reserve is expected to stabilize the Fed funds rate between 3.00‑3.25%, providing support for capital expenditures without reigniting inflation. Gradual interest rate cuts are seen as supportive for equity valuations.
Sector Composition Resilience
The Dow’s strong presence in industrials, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples ties it to real‑world economic activity. Defense spending, infrastructure investment, and demographic tailwinds in healthcare further strengthen sector resilience.
Soft Landing & Great Rotation
The US economy’s ability to avoid a deep recession, coupled with resilient consumer spending, supports a “soft landing” narrative. A shift in capital flows toward cyclical value and industrial stability is expected to drive the Dow’s outperformance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DOW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$40.80
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.40
+100.0% from the low
52-Week High
$42.74
-4.5% from the high
1 Month
+0.59%
3 Month
+33.33%
YTD
+68.1%
1 Year
+40.9%
3Y CAGR
-9.1%
5Y CAGR
-9.7%
10Y CAGR
-2.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DOW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.8x
vs 19.4x median
-29% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.0%
vs -3.6% median
+72% above peer median
Net Margin
-7.0%
vs -5.7% median
-23% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DOW DOW Dow Inc. | $29.4B | 13.8x | -1.0% | -7.0% | Hold | -3.1% |
LYB LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $25.1B | 10.8x | +5.2% | -3.4% | Hold | -5.3% |
HUN HUN Huntsman Corporation | $2.6B | — | -4.3% | -5.7% | Hold | -19.9% |
WLK WLK Westlake Corporation | $13.4B | 28.1x | -3.6% | -14.9% | Hold | -2.8% |
OLN OLN Olin Corporation | $3.3B | — | -0.2% | -0.6% | Hold | -15.3% |
TRO TROX Tronox Holdings plc | $1.7B | — | -24.5% | -11.4% | Buy | -30.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DOW Dividend and Capital Return
DOW returns 5.1% total yield, led by a 5.13% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.13%
Payout Ratio
—
How DOW Splits Its Return
Div 5.13%
Dividend 5.13%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.09
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-9.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-5.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
720M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.10 | -25.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% |
| 2024 | $2.80 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 8.7% |
| 2023 | $2.80 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 6.7% |
| 2022 | $2.80 | 0.0% | 6.4% | 11.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsDOW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Dow Inc. (DOW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Dow Inc. (DOW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying -3.1% from the current price of $41.
02What is the DOW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DOW is $40 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $51 (+25.0% from today), and the low-end target is $27 (-33.8%).
03Is Dow Inc. (DOW) stock overvalued in 2026?
DOW trades at 13.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Dow Inc. (DOW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DOW in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory — Dow faces significant litigation and legal liabilities that could result in substantial financial penalties and reputational damage. (2) Finance & Corporate — Accounting and financial operations risks include potential misstatements and the need for additional capital to fund ongoing projects. (3) Economic Cyclicality & Demand Weakness — Dow’s performance is highly cyclical, with demand in packaging, construction, infrastructure, consumer applications, and industrial markets driving volumes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Dow Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DOW will report consensus revenue of $38.9B (-1.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.32 (+65.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $36.7B in revenue.
06When does Dow Inc. (DOW) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DOW is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Dow Inc. generate?
Dow Inc. (DOW) had a free cash outflow of $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.1%. DOW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).