Upside case
Bull case
$26-57.2%
The bull case prices LYB at 3x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
39
analysts
17 bullish · 3 bearish · 39 covering LYB
Strong Buy
1
Buy
16
Hold
19
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$80
+33.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$12 – $26
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.4B
LYB price targets
Three scenarios for where LYB stock could go
Current
~$60
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $60
Bear
$12
Base
$20
Bull
$26
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$20-67.5%
At 2x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$12-79.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push LYB down roughly 80% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
LYB · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtyDecember year-end
LyondellBasell is one of the world's largest plastics, chemicals, and refining companies, producing essential materials like polyethylene and polypropylene used in packaging, automotive parts, and consumer goods. It generates revenue primarily through its Olefins & Polyolefins segment (~60% of sales) and Intermediates & Derivatives segment (~25%), with refining and technology licensing contributing the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and integrated production facilities — particularly its low-cost, world-scale crackers — which create significant cost advantages in commodity chemical markets.
Market Cap
$19.4B
Revenue TTM
$22.5B
Net Income TTM
-$774M
Net Margin
-3.4%
LYB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-18.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.81
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.01/$0.81
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.26/$0.11
Revenue
$7.1B/$6.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.49/$0.28
Revenue
$7.2B/$7.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.62/$0.81 | -23.0% | $7.7B/$7.5B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.01/$0.81 | +24.5% | $7.7B/$7.4B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.26/$0.11 | -333.6% | $7.1B/$6.8B | +4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49/$0.28 | +74.6% | $7.2B/$7.5B | -4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.1B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$26.0B
+12.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.65
— YoY
FY2
$1.95
+18.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.1B
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
July 31, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.18
Expected Revenue
$9.5B
LYB beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
LYB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $27.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Polyethylene
26.3%
-5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
36.7%
-43.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Polyethylene is the largest disclosed segment at 26.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 36.7%, down 43.2% YoY.
LYB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $95 — implies +58.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
58.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LYB
-25.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
205% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
LYB
-25.6x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
208% discount
vs LYB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-25.6x
vs
5Y Average
11.3x
326% discount
Forward PE
6.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-66%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-57%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-25.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-205%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-208%
5Y Avg
11.3x
-326%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
30.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+97%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+172%
5Y Avg
11.0x
+172%
Price/FCF
50.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+144%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+74%
5Y Avg
13.9x
+263%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-79%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-66%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+6%
Dividend Yield
9.12%
S&P 500
1.91%
+377%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+549%
5Y Avg
8.34%
+9%
| Metric | LYB | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg LYB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.4x | 18.8x-66% | 14.9x-57% | — |
| Trailing PE | -25.6x | 24.4x-205% | 23.6x-208% | 11.3x-326% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0x | 15.2x+97% | 11.0x+172% | 11.0x+172% |
| Price/FCF | 50.4x | 20.7x+144% | 29.0x+74% | 13.9x+263% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-79% | 1.9x-66% | 0.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 9.12% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 8.34% |
LYB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLYB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
LYB generates $3.1B in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin — returns 10.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-34.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-19.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-0.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-1.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.1× FCF
~4.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-7.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.2%
Dividend
9.1%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$201M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
322M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLYB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Weak demand
LyondellBasell Industries faces weak demand, which is pressuring revenues and margins.
High Risk
Rising costs
The company is experiencing rising costs, further squeezing profitability.
High Risk
Margin pressure
Margin pressure is intensifying due to weak demand and higher input costs.
Medium
Valuation concerns
LYB's valuation appears rich, raising concerns about potential de-rating.
Medium
Dividend risk
The sustainability of the dividend is at risk due to financial pressures.
Medium
Petrochemical volatility
Volatile feedstock costs and market conditions are creating uncertainty.
Lower
Decarbonization pressures
The company faces challenges from global decarbonization trends impacting the materials industry.
Lower
Market sentiment
Bearish market sentiment has contributed to recent stock declines.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LYB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Sustainable living solutions
LyondellBasell develops and markets solutions for sustainable living, including applications for safe food, clean water, and quality healthcare.
Global polymer leader
LYB is a global leader in the chemical industry and one of the world's largest producers of polymers, with innovative polyolefin technologies widely utilized.
Diverse market applications
The company's products enable efficient transportation, advanced infrastructure, and other critical applications, showcasing its broad market reach.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LYB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$60.07
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.58
+44.5% from the low
52-Week High
$83.94
-28.4% from the high
1 Month
-18.97%
3 Month
-20.12%
YTD
+35.3%
1 Year
+2.4%
3Y CAGR
-12.4%
5Y CAGR
-9.8%
10Y CAGR
-2.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LYB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.4x
vs 24.9x median
-74% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +2.6% median
+14% above peer median
Net Margin
-3.4%
vs -5.7% median
+39% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LYB LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $19.4B | 6.4x | +2.9% | -3.4% | Hold | +33.5% |
DOW DOW Dow Inc. | $22.8B | 10.0x | +4.6% | -7.0% | Hold | +24.0% |
LIN LIN Linde plc | $237.3B | 28.6x | +4.0% | 20.6% | Buy | +9.8% |
WLK WLK Westlake Corporation | $10.3B | 21.2x | +2.6% | -14.9% | Hold | +44.9% |
HUN HUN Huntsman Corporation | $2.1B | — | +1.7% | -5.7% | Hold | +14.3% |
OLN OLN Olin Corporation | $2.5B | 271.4x | +1.5% | -1.9% | Hold | +28.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LYB Dividend and Capital Return
LYB returns 10.2% total yield, led by a 9.12% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.0%.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
10.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
9.12%
Payout Ratio
—
How LYB Splits Its Return
Div 9.12%
Dividend 9.12%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
-18.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$201M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
322M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.45 | +3.4% | 1.4% | 14.1% |
| 2024 | $5.27 | +6.7% | 0.8% | 7.9% |
| 2023 | $4.94 | -50.1% | 0.7% | 5.9% |
| 2022 | $9.90 | +123.0% | 1.5% | 13.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsLYB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $80, implying +33.5% from the current price of $60. The bear case scenario is $12 and the bull case is $26.
02What is the LYB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LYB is $80 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+66.5% from today), and the low-end target is $53 (-11.8%). The base case model target is $20.
03Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock overvalued in 2026?
LYB trades at 6.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LYB in 2026 are: (1) Weak demand — LyondellBasell Industries faces weak demand, which is pressuring revenues and margins. (2) Rising costs — The company is experiencing rising costs, further squeezing profitability. (3) Margin pressure — Margin pressure is intensifying due to weak demand and higher input costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LYB will report consensus revenue of $23.1B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.65 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.0B in revenue.
06When does LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) report its next earnings?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-31. Consensus expects EPS of $3.18 and revenue of $9.5B. Over recent quarters, LYB has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does LyondellBasell Industries N.V. generate?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) generated $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. LYB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (9.1% yield) and share repurchases ($201M TTM).