Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing LYB more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
39
analysts
16 bullish · 3 bearish · 39 covering LYB
Strong Buy
1
Buy
15
Hold
20
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$74
-5.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.1B
LYB price targets
Three scenarios for where LYB stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
LYB · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtyDecember year-end
LyondellBasell is one of the world's largest plastics, chemicals, and refining companies, producing essential materials like polyethylene and polypropylene used in packaging, automotive parts, and consumer goods. It generates revenue primarily through its Olefins & Polyolefins segment (~60% of sales) and Intermediates & Derivatives segment (~25%), with refining and technology licensing contributing the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and integrated production facilities — particularly its low-cost, world-scale crackers — which create significant cost advantages in commodity chemical markets.
Market Cap
$25.1B
Revenue TTM
$22.5B
Net Income TTM
-$774M
Net Margin
-3.4%
LYB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-19.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.81
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.01/$0.81
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.26/$0.11
Revenue
$7.1B/$6.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.49/$0.31
Revenue
$7.2B/$7.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.62/$0.81 | -23.0% | $7.7B/$7.5B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.01/$0.81 | +24.5% | $7.7B/$7.4B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.26/$0.11 | -333.6% | $7.1B/$6.8B | +4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49/$0.31 | +58.1% | $7.2B/$7.5B | -4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.6B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$20.0B
-15.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.49
— YoY
FY2
$1.01
-32.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.1B
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LYB beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
LYB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $27.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Polyethylene
26.3%
-5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
36.7%
-43.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Polyethylene is the largest disclosed segment at 26.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 36.7%, down 43.2% YoY.
LYB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $126 — implies +67.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
67.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LYB
-33.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
232% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
LYB
-33.1x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
249% discount
vs LYB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-33.1x
vs
5Y Average
11.3x
393% discount
Forward PE
10.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-43%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-33.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-232%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-249%
5Y Avg
11.3x
-393%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Basic Materials
1.17x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
35.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+132%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+222%
5Y Avg
11.0x
+221%
Price/FCF
65.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+209%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+154%
5Y Avg
13.9x
+370%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-56%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+37%
Dividend Yield
7.05%
S&P 500
1.87%
+277%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+432%
5Y Avg
8.34%
-16%
| Metric | LYB | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg LYB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.8x | 19.1x-43% | 15.2x-29% | — |
| Trailing PE | -33.1x | 25.1x-232% | 22.3x-249% | 11.3x-393% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.3x | 15.2x+132% | 11.0x+222% | 11.0x+221% |
| Price/FCF | 65.2x | 21.1x+209% | 25.6x+154% | 13.9x+370% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-73% | 1.9x-56% | 0.6x+37% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.05% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 8.34% |
LYB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLYB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
LYB generates $3.1B in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin — returns 7.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-34.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-19.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-0.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-1.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.1× FCF
~4.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-7.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.8%
Dividend
7.0%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$201M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
322M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLYB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
LYB's business is heavily reliant on raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas. Fluctuations in the prices of these commodities directly impact the company's input costs and profitability.
High Risk
Cyclical Industry Pressures
The chemical industry is inherently cyclical, with demand heavily influenced by construction activity, consumer spending, and global economic conditions. Downturns in these sectors can lead to reduced demand for chemicals and plastics, affecting LYB's revenue and growth prospects.
High Risk
Debt and Financial Leverage
LYB carries a significant amount of debt, which poses risks if profitability declines or market conditions deteriorate. The company might face challenges in managing its debt obligations or may need to raise capital at unfavorable terms, potentially diluting shareholder value.
Medium
Margin Volatility and Overcapacity
The company's profitability is sensitive to the spreads between feedstock costs and product prices. New capacity additions by competitors, particularly from lower-cost regions like the Middle East and China, can lead to margin compression and reduced profitability.
Medium
Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks
As a global player, LYB is exposed to diverse economic conditions, geopolitical events, and currency fluctuations across various regions. Economic downturns or uncertainties in key markets can negatively impact demand and the company's financial performance.
Medium
Dividend Sustainability
While LYB offers an attractive dividend yield, it is not always fully covered by free cash flow. This introduces a risk of a potential dividend cut if market conditions worsen or if the company faces financial pressures.
Lower
Regulatory and Environmental Factors
The company faces risks related to plastics regulations, such as single-use plastic bans in certain regions, which could reduce long-term demand growth for its products.
Lower
Asbestos Exposure
Workers in LyondellBasell's chemical plants may be at risk of exposure to asbestos, which can lead to serious occupational diseases like asbestosis, lung cancer, and mesothelioma.
Lower
Execution Risk
The company's ability to successfully execute its restructuring plans, cost-reduction initiatives, and growth strategies is crucial for its future performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LYB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Growth Potential and EBITDA
Bulls anticipate strong growth, with forward EBITDA estimates reaching approximately $4.5 billion, contingent on a better global economic landscape.
Olefins and Polyolefins Segment Strength
The company has shown quarter-over-quarter improvements in pricing and margins within its North American O&P segment, along with increased export demand.
Favorable Market Dynamics
A tight supply and demand balance, coupled with moderate feedstock costs, positions LyondellBasell favorably for sustained performance.
Cyclical Inflection
Signs of a cyclical upturn are emerging, with polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices showing consecutive monthly gains, operating rates increasing, and inventories normalizing.
Cost Advantages
LyondellBasell's U.S. operations benefit from advantaged ethane-based feedstocks, making it a low-cost global producer.
Financial Strength and Shareholder Returns
The company has a history of strong cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LYB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.76
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.58
+87.0% from the low
52-Week High
$83.94
-7.4% from the high
1 Month
-1.09%
3 Month
+44.32%
YTD
+75.2%
1 Year
+38.3%
3Y CAGR
-5.6%
5Y CAGR
-7.0%
10Y CAGR
-0.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LYB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.8x
vs 28.0x median
-62% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs -1.0% median
+612% above peer median
Net Margin
-3.4%
vs -5.7% median
+39% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LYB LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $25.1B | 10.8x | +5.2% | -3.4% | Hold | -5.3% |
DOW DOW Dow Inc. | $29.4B | 13.8x | -1.0% | -7.0% | Hold | -3.1% |
LIN LIN Linde plc | $231.9B | 28.0x | +2.7% | 20.6% | Buy | +7.9% |
WLK WLK Westlake Corporation | $13.4B | 28.1x | -3.6% | -14.9% | Hold | -2.8% |
HUN HUN Huntsman Corporation | $2.6B | — | -4.3% | -5.7% | Hold | -19.9% |
OLN OLN Olin Corporation | $3.3B | — | -0.2% | -0.6% | Hold | -15.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LYB Dividend and Capital Return
LYB returns 7.8% total yield, led by a 7.05% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
7.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
7.05%
Payout Ratio
—
How LYB Splits Its Return
Div 7.05%
Dividend 7.05%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-18.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$201M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
322M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.45 | +3.4% | 1.4% | 14.1% |
| 2024 | $5.27 | +6.7% | 0.8% | 7.9% |
| 2023 | $4.94 | -50.1% | 0.7% | 5.9% |
| 2022 | $9.90 | +123.0% | 1.5% | 13.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsLYB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $74, implying -5.3% from the current price of $78.
02What is the LYB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LYB is $74 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+28.6% from today), and the low-end target is $38 (-51.1%).
03Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock overvalued in 2026?
LYB trades at 10.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LYB in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — LYB's business is heavily reliant on raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas. (2) Cyclical Industry Pressures — The chemical industry is inherently cyclical, with demand heavily influenced by construction activity, consumer spending, and global economic conditions. (3) Debt and Financial Leverage — LYB carries a significant amount of debt, which poses risks if profitability declines or market conditions deteriorate. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LYB will report consensus revenue of $23.6B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.49 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.0B in revenue.
06When does LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LYB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does LyondellBasell Industries N.V. generate?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) generated $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. LYB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.0% yield) and share repurchases ($201M TTM).