Upside case
Bull case
$323+65.3%
DRI would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
59
analysts
38 bullish · 1 bearish · 59 covering DRI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
20
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$225
+15.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$32 – $323
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
59
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.2B
DRI price targets
Three scenarios for where DRI stock could go
Current
~$196
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $196
Bear
$32
Base
$251
Bull
$323
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$251+28.3%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$32-83.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push DRI down roughly 84% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Darden Restaurants, Inc.
DRI · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsMay year-end
Darden Restaurants is a leading operator of full-service casual dining restaurants across multiple brands. It generates revenue primarily from restaurant sales — with Olive Garden (~47% of revenue) and LongHorn Steakhouse (~28%) as its largest segments — supplemented by a small franchise component. The company's competitive advantage lies in its scale-driven purchasing power, multi-brand portfolio that diversifies risk, and operational expertise in managing large restaurant chains efficiently.
Market Cap
$23.2B
Revenue TTM
$12.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
8.7%
DRI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.98/$2.97
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.97/$2.00
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.08/$2.10
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.95/$2.94
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.98/$2.97 | +0.3% | $3.3B/$3.3B | +0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.97/$2.00 | -1.5% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.08/$2.10 | -1.0% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.95/$2.94 | +0.3% | $3.3B/$3.3B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.4B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$14.2B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.49
+10.7% YoY
FY2
$11.37
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 12.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DRI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
DRI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Olive Garden
54.6%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Olive Garden is the largest disclosed segment at 54.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.9% YoY.
DRI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $242 — implies +24.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DRI
22.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
12% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
DRI
22.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+13% premium
vs DRI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.1x
vs
5Y Average
21.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
18.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-3%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-12%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+13%
5Y Avg
21.5x
+3%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+2%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+37%
5Y Avg
16.2x
-4%
Price/FCF
22.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+5%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+49%
5Y Avg
20.3x
+10%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+170%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-1%
Dividend Yield
2.84%
S&P 500
1.88%
+51%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+32%
5Y Avg
2.76%
+3%
| Metric | DRI | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg DRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.4x | 19.1x | 15.2x+21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.1x | 25.2x-12% | 19.6x+13% | 21.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5x | 15.3x | 11.4x+37% | 16.2x |
| Price/FCF | 22.4x | 21.3x | 15.0x+49% | 20.3x+10% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 0.7x+170% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.84% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 2.76% |
DRI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDRI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DRI generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 12.3% margin — 13.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$240M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.8× FCF
~3.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
50.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$418M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.56
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
62.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
118M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageDRI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Labor and Staffing
Darden's ability to attract, train, and retain qualified employees is crucial for its operations and growth. A competitive labor market and high turnover rates can significantly affect service quality and expansion plans, potentially leading to reduced customer satisfaction and lower revenues.
High Risk
Leverage
Darden's notable debt-to-equity ratio indicates a significant level of leverage, which can increase borrowing costs if interest rates rise. This financial risk can adversely affect profitability and cash flow, particularly in a rising interest rate environment.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Darden uses derivatives to hedge against price fluctuations in commodities like coffee, wheat, and energy. However, volatility in these markets can still impact gross margins and net earnings, posing a risk to overall financial stability.
Medium
Supply Chain and Commodity Costs
Fluctuations in the cost of ingredients, such as beef, can impact profit margins. While Darden attempts to pass these costs on to consumers, it remains a challenge to fully offset rising food expenses, which could squeeze profitability.
Medium
Economic Sensitivity
Darden's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic factors such as consumer confidence, inflation, and interest rates. Economic downturns can negatively affect discretionary spending on dining out, leading to reduced sales.
Medium
Brand Management and Portfolio Strategy
Decisions regarding brand performance, such as the restructuring or closure of brands like Bahama Breeze, can create short-term costs and execution risks. Poor brand management may lead to loss of market share and decreased revenues.
Lower
Government Regulations
Changes in laws and regulations, including immigration laws, can affect Darden's operations. Compliance with new regulations may incur additional costs and operational adjustments.
Lower
Geopolitical Factors
Global events and geopolitical conflicts can create uncertainty and impact business operations. Such external risks may disrupt supply chains or affect consumer behavior, leading to potential revenue declines.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DRI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diverse Brand Portfolio
Darden owns and operates a variety of popular casual dining chains, including Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Ruth's Chris Steak House, catering to a wide range of consumer preferences.
Strong Financial Performance
The company has a strong earnings forecast, with analysts expecting robust financial performance. Darden has demonstrated solid performance in the face of industry headwinds and provides positive future guidance.
Aggressive Growth Strategy
Darden is actively testing smaller restaurant prototypes to lower construction costs and speed up new openings, which could accelerate unit growth and enhance revenue and earnings. The company plans for approximately 70 new openings in fiscal year 2026 and expects 75-80 openings in fiscal year 2027.
Impressive Cost Management
Darden is recognized for its impressive cost management and a meticulously designed operating model that captures value across the dining experience. They focus on operational efficiency and disciplined cost management.
Strong Shareholder Returns
The company has a history of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Institutional Investor Confidence
A significant portion of Darden's shares are held by institutional investors, indicating strong confidence in the company's future prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DRI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$195.70
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$169.00
+15.8% from the low
52-Week High
$228.27
-14.3% from the high
1 Month
-0.44%
3 Month
-9.51%
YTD
+4.5%
1 Year
-1.4%
3Y CAGR
+9.2%
5Y CAGR
+6.7%
10Y CAGR
+12.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DRI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.4x
vs 15.0x median
+23% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs +5.9% median
-14% below peer median
Net Margin
8.7%
vs 4.0% median
+119% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DRI DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $23.2B | 18.4x | +5.1% | 8.7% | Buy | +15.2% |
EAT EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $6.3B | 13.7x | +10.2% | 8.1% | Buy | +25.4% |
TXR TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $10.6B | 25.3x | +13.3% | 7.5% | Hold | +20.0% |
BLM BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | $692M | 9.7x | +0.6% | 0.2% | Hold | +4.7% |
DEN DENN Denny's Corporation | $322M | 15.0x | +0.2% | 2.2% | Buy | -4.0% |
CAK CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $3.0B | 15.0x | +5.9% | 4.0% | Hold | +8.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DRI Dividend and Capital Return
DRI returns 4.6% total yield, led by a 2.84% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.8%.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
2.84%
Payout Ratio
62.7%
How DRI Splits Its Return
Div 2.84%
Buyback 1.8%
Dividend 2.84%Buybacks 1.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.56
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.9%
5Y Div CAGR
37.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$418M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
118M
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.80 | +7.0% | 1.7% | 4.5% |
| 2024 | $5.42 | +7.5% | 2.5% | 6.1% |
| 2023 | $5.04 | +9.1% | 2.4% | 5.4% |
| 2022 | $4.62 | +33.9% | 6.6% | 10.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsDRI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 59 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $225, implying +15.2% from the current price of $196. The bear case scenario is $32 and the bull case is $323.
02What is the DRI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DRI is $225 based on 59 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $265 (+35.4% from today), and the low-end target is $200 (+2.2%). The base case model target is $251.
03Is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) stock overvalued in 2026?
DRI trades at 18.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DRI in 2026 are: (1) Labor and Staffing — Darden's ability to attract, train, and retain qualified employees is crucial for its operations and growth. (2) Leverage — Darden's notable debt-to-equity ratio indicates a significant level of leverage, which can increase borrowing costs if interest rates rise. (3) Commodity Price Volatility — Darden uses derivatives to hedge against price fluctuations in commodities like coffee, wheat, and energy. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DRI will report consensus revenue of $13.4B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.49 (+10.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.2B in revenue.
06When does Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DRI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Darden Restaurants, Inc. generate?
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.3%. DRI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($418M TTM).