Upside case
Bull case
$182-32.4%
The bull case prices ECL at 22x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
27 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering ECL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$327
+21.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$87 – $182
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $76.0B
ECL price targets
Three scenarios for where ECL stock could go
Current
~$269
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $269
Bear
$87
Base
$138
Bull
$182
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$138-48.7%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$87-67.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 22x multiple contraction could push ECL down roughly 68% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ecolab Inc.
ECL · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtyDecember year-end
Ecolab is a global provider of water treatment, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions for industrial, institutional, and healthcare customers. It generates revenue primarily through chemical sales and service contracts across three main segments—Global Industrial (~40% of sales), Global Institutional & Specialty (~35%), and Global Healthcare & Life Sciences (~25%). The company's moat lies in its mission-critical, recurring service model with high switching costs—once installed, its water treatment and cleaning systems create long-term customer lock-in.
Market Cap
$76.0B
Revenue TTM
$16.1B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
12.9%
ECL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.89/$1.90
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.07/$2.07
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.08/$2.07
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.70/$1.70
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.89/$1.90 | -0.5% | $4.0B/$4.0B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.07/$2.07 | +0.0% | $4.2B/$4.1B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.08/$2.07 | +0.5% | $4.2B/$4.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.70/$1.70 | +0.0% | $4.1B/$4.0B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.2B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$18.3B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.35
+0.6% YoY
FY2
$7.68
+4.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.9B
FCF Margin: 11.8%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.09
Expected Revenue
$4.4B
ECL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ECL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Global Water
49.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
52.7%
+2.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Global Water is the largest disclosed segment at 49.6% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 52.7%, up 2.1% YoY.
ECL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $198 — implies -26.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ECL
37.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+51% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
ECL
37.0x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+57% premium
vs ECL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.0x
vs
5Y Average
41.5x
11% discount
Forward PE
32.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+72%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+118%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+51%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+57%
5Y Avg
41.5x
-11%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+55%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+115%
5Y Avg
23.0x
+3%
Price/FCF
39.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+93%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+38%
5Y Avg
39.5x
+1%
Price/Sales
4.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+53%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+151%
5Y Avg
4.2x
+13%
Dividend Yield
0.98%
S&P 500
1.91%
-49%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-30%
5Y Avg
1.07%
-8%
| Metric | ECL | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg ECL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.4x | 18.8x+72% | 14.9x+118% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.0x | 24.4x+51% | 23.6x+57% | 41.5x-11% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6x | 15.2x+55% | 11.0x+115% | 23.0x |
| Price/FCF | 39.9x | 20.7x+93% | 29.0x+38% | 39.5x |
| Price/Sales | 4.7x | 3.1x+53% | 1.9x+151% | 4.2x+13% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.98% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.07% |
ECL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolECL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ECL generates $1.9B in free cash flow at a 11.8% margin — 12.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$646M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.6× FCF
~4.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$784M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
36.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
282M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageECL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The bear case price target of $95 suggests significant downside risk due to potential valuation compression.
Medium
Sector outlook risk
Analysts consider the Basic Materials sector outlook as a factor, which could negatively impact Ecolab's performance.
Lower
Geographic limitations
Not all products are available in all countries, which may limit revenue growth in certain regions.
Medium
Competitive positioning
Ecolab's competitive positioning in water treatment and hygiene markets could face pressure from rivals.
High Risk
Earnings volatility
Forward EPS estimates under bear scenarios indicate potential earnings volatility and downside risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ECL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Global leadership in water and hygiene
Ecolab is a global leader in water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions, with a century-long history of innovation and a strong market position.
Strong pricing power and margin expansion
The company benefits from pricing momentum and margin expansion, as highlighted in previous bullish theses, contributing to stock appreciation.
Recurring revenue model
Ecolab's recurring revenue model aligns well with steady economic growth and resilient demand, providing a stable financial foundation.
Favorable valuation and price targets
Analysts project a 12-month price target range of $270.87 to $309.56, reflecting confidence in Ecolab's growth rates and valuation metrics.
Expansion in water solutions for data centers
The company's water solutions for data centers represent a strong growth driver, as previously noted in bullish investment theses.
Global operational scale
Ecolab operates in over 170 countries with $16 billion in annual sales and 48,000 employees, showcasing its extensive global reach and scalability.
Supportive economic environment
A steady growth path and stable monetary policy in 2026 create a favorable backdrop for Ecolab's business execution and growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ECL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$269.12
52W Range Position
39%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$243.15
+10.7% from the low
52-Week High
$309.27
-13.0% from the high
1 Month
+7.99%
3 Month
+2.78%
YTD
+2.5%
1 Year
+3.4%
3Y CAGR
+14.2%
5Y CAGR
+5.6%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ECL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.4x
vs 19.7x median
+65% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +3.8% median
+81% above peer median
Net Margin
12.9%
vs 8.8% median
+47% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ECL ECL Ecolab Inc. | $76.0B | 32.4x | +6.8% | 12.9% | Buy | +21.5% |
SHW SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company | $79.1B | 27.4x | +3.8% | 10.9% | Buy | +16.8% |
IFF IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $19.6B | 17.3x | +0.8% | 7.8% | Buy | +14.9% |
RPM RPM RPM International Inc. | $13.8B | 19.7x | +4.1% | 8.8% | Buy | +15.4% |
FMC FMC FMC Corporation | $1.4B | 6.8x | +2.7% | -72.9% | Hold | +39.4% |
CHD CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $22.7B | 25.5x | +4.3% | 11.8% | Buy | +9.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ECL Dividend and Capital Return
ECL returns 2.0% annually — 0.98% through dividends and 1.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.98%
Payout Ratio
36.3%
How ECL Splits Its Return
Div 0.98%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.98%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
38Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.2%
5Y Div CAGR
7.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$784M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
282M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.68 | +13.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% |
| 2024 | $2.36 | +9.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $2.16 | +4.9% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2022 | $2.06 | +5.6% | 1.2% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsECL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ecolab Inc. (ECL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ecolab Inc. (ECL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $327, implying +21.5% from the current price of $269. The bear case scenario is $87 and the bull case is $182.
02What is the ECL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ECL is $327 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $345 (+28.2% from today), and the low-end target is $275 (+2.2%). The base case model target is $138.
03Is Ecolab Inc. (ECL) stock overvalued in 2026?
ECL trades at 32.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ecolab Inc. (ECL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ECL in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The bear case price target of $95 suggests significant downside risk due to potential valuation compression. (2) Earnings volatility — Forward EPS estimates under bear scenarios indicate potential earnings volatility and downside risk. (3) Sector outlook risk — Analysts consider the Basic Materials sector outlook as a factor, which could negatively impact Ecolab's performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ecolab Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ECL will report consensus revenue of $17.2B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.35 (+0.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.3B in revenue.
06When does Ecolab Inc. (ECL) report its next earnings?
Ecolab Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $2.09 and revenue of $4.4B. Over recent quarters, ECL has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ecolab Inc. generate?
Ecolab Inc. (ECL) generated $1.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.8%. ECL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($784M TTM).