Upside case
Bull case
$146+52.6%
CHD would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 covering CHD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$105
+9.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$70 – $146
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.7B
CHD price targets
Three scenarios for where CHD stock could go
Current
~$96
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $96
Bear
$70
Base
$111
Bull
$146
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$111+15.8%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$70-27.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push CHD down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
CHD · NYSEConsumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal ProductsDecember year-end
Church & Dwight is a consumer goods company that manufactures and markets household, personal care, and specialty products under well-known brands like ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN, and OXICLEAN. It generates revenue primarily through its Consumer Domestic segment — which accounts for roughly 70% of sales — selling products across laundry, oral care, sexual wellness, and home cleaning categories. The company's key advantage is its portfolio of leading value brands that dominate niche categories — like ARM & HAMMER in baking soda and TROJAN in condoms — giving it pricing power and shelf space.
Market Cap
$22.7B
Revenue TTM
$6.2B
Net Income TTM
$733M
Net Margin
11.8%
CHD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.86
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.74
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.84
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.95/$0.93
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.94/$0.86 | +9.7% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.81/$0.74 | +10.1% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.86/$0.84 | +2.9% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.95/$0.93 | +2.0% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.5B
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$6.6B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.31
+7.5% YoY
FY2
$3.43
+3.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 17.2%
Next Earnings
August 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.91
Expected Revenue
$1.5B
CHD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CHD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $299M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Specialty Products Division
100.0%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Consumer Domestic
80.9%
+0.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Specialty Products Division is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.4% YoY.
Consumer Domestic is the largest reported region at 80.9%, up 0.9% YoY.
CHD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $87 — implies -8.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CHD
31.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+30% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
CHD
31.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+67% premium
vs CHD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.7x
vs
5Y Average
36.4x
13% discount
Forward PE
25.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+35%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+79%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+30%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+67%
5Y Avg
36.4x
-13%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+21%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+66%
5Y Avg
22.4x
-18%
Price/FCF
20.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+0%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+36%
5Y Avg
26.3x
-21%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+18%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+315%
5Y Avg
4.0x
-9%
Dividend Yield
1.23%
S&P 500
1.91%
-36%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-60%
5Y Avg
1.17%
+5%
| Metric | CHD | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg CHD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.5x | 18.8x+35% | 14.2x+79% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.7x | 24.4x+30% | 18.9x+67% | 36.4x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5x | 15.2x+21% | 11.1x+66% | 22.4x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 20.7x | 20.7x | 15.3x+36% | 26.3x-21% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+18% | 0.9x+315% | 4.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.23% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 1.17% |
CHD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCHD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CHD generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 17.2% margin — 13.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.08
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$409M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
4.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$900M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
237M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCHD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Execution risk
TheraBreath toothpaste and other innovations face execution risks in offsetting domestic declines.
High Risk
Long-term underperformance
CHD stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 5% annually over a decade despite short-term gains.
Medium
Margin compression
The company faces risks of margin compression despite recent resilience in gross margins.
Medium
Competitive erosion
Competitive pressures could erode market share and growth prospects.
Medium
Slow growth outlook
Projected CAGR of 2% indicates limited growth potential in the near term.
Lower
Valuation concerns
Persistent premium valuation may not be justified given growth and margin risks.
Lower
Disclosed risk factors
Church & Dwight disclosed 35 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating broad operational and financial challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CHD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Q1 2026 Performance
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. reported Q1 organic sales growth of 5%, exceeding its 3% outlook, with adjusted EPS of $0.95, up 4.4% year over year.
Dividend Affirmation
The company affirmed a quarterly dividend of $0.3075 per share, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns.
Brand Growth
Management highlighted growth in key brands such as ARM & HAMMER and THERABREATH, indicating strong product performance.
Bullish Investor Sentiment
A bullish thesis on Church & Dwight Co., Inc. was discussed on a Value investing subreddit, reflecting positive investor outlook.
Earnings Beat
Adjusted EPS of $0.95 surpassed the $0.92 guidance figure, showcasing operational efficiency and profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CHD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$95.64
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$81.33
+17.6% from the low
52-Week High
$106.04
-9.8% from the high
1 Month
-1.18%
3 Month
-0.11%
YTD
+15.7%
1 Year
-0.3%
3Y CAGR
+0.4%
5Y CAGR
+2.7%
10Y CAGR
+6.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CHD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.5x
vs 22.7x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
vs +1.3% median
+232% above peer median
Net Margin
11.8%
vs 10.5% median
+13% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHD CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $22.7B | 25.5x | +4.3% | 11.8% | Buy | +9.8% |
PG PG The Procter & Gamble Company | $351.4B | 21.8x | +1.3% | 14.7% | Buy | +5.7% |
CL CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | $71.8B | 23.5x | +4.1% | 10.5% | Hold | +7.3% |
EL EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $30.6B | 34.9x | +0.3% | -1.7% | Hold | +20.4% |
KMB KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | $34.0B | 13.6x | +0.6% | 12.8% | Hold | +3.8% |
RCU RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $2.4B | — | +35.0% | -156.4% | Buy | +27.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CHD Dividend and Capital Return
CHD returns capital mainly through $900M/year in buybacks (4.0% buyback yield), with a modest 1.23% dividend — combining for 5.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 29 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.0%
Dividend Yield
1.23%
Payout Ratio
39.0%
How CHD Splits Its Return
Div 1.23%
Buyback 4.0%
Dividend 1.23%Buybacks 4.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
29Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.0%
5Y Div CAGR
4.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$900M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
237M
At 4.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.61 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.18 | +4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% |
| 2024 | $1.14 | +4.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $1.09 | +3.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $1.05 | +4.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCHD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $105, implying +9.8% from the current price of $96. The bear case scenario is $70 and the bull case is $146.
02What is the CHD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CHD is $105 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $114 (+19.2% from today), and the low-end target is $91 (-4.9%). The base case model target is $111.
03Is Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) stock overvalued in 2026?
CHD trades at 25.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CHD in 2026 are: (1) Execution risk — TheraBreath toothpaste and other innovations face execution risks in offsetting domestic declines. (2) Long-term underperformance — CHD stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 5% annually over a decade despite short-term gains. (3) Margin compression — The company faces risks of margin compression despite recent resilience in gross margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CHD will report consensus revenue of $6.5B (+4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.31 (+7.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.6B in revenue.
06When does Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) report its next earnings?
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.91 and revenue of $1.5B. Over recent quarters, CHD has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Church & Dwight Co., Inc. generate?
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.2%. CHD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($900M TTM).