Upside case
Bull case
$28-67.0%
The bull case prices EL at 12x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
21 bullish · 4 bearish · 46 covering EL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
21
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$102
+20.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$13 – $28
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
34.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.6B
EL price targets
Three scenarios for where EL stock could go
Current
~$85
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $85
Bear
$13
Base
$21
Bull
$28
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$21-74.9%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$13-84.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 29x multiple contraction could push EL down roughly 84% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
EL · NYSEConsumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal ProductsJune year-end
Estée Lauder Companies is a global prestige beauty conglomerate that develops, manufactures, and markets luxury skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. It generates revenue primarily through product sales across its portfolio of over 25 prestige brands—with skincare representing its largest segment at roughly 60% of sales—through department stores, specialty retailers, e-commerce, and freestanding stores. The company's competitive advantage lies in its powerful portfolio of iconic prestige brands, global distribution reach in high-end retail channels, and deep expertise in luxury beauty marketing.
Market Cap
$30.6B
Revenue TTM
$14.8B
Net Income TTM
-$248M
Net Margin
-1.7%
EL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+95.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.09/$0.09
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.18
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.89/$0.83
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.91/$0.65
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.09/$0.09 | +4.3% | $3.4B/$3.4B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32/$0.18 | +82.1% | $3.5B/$3.4B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.89/$0.83 | +6.6% | $4.2B/$4.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.91/$0.65 | +40.4% | $3.7B/$3.7B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.9B
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$15.2B
+2.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.81
+219.0% YoY
FY2
$1.18
+46.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 8.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $14.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Skin Care
48.9%
-12.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
E M E A
37.5%
-12.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Skin Care is the largest disclosed segment at 48.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 12.0% YoY.
E M E A is the largest reported region at 37.5%, down 12.5% YoY.
EL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $39 — implies -54.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
54.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EL
-26.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
210% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
EL
-26.9x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
242% discount
vs EL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-26.9x
vs
5Y Average
62.2x
143% discount
Forward PE
34.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+86%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+146%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-26.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-210%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-242%
5Y Avg
62.2x
-143%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+37%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+87%
5Y Avg
28.1x
-26%
Price/FCF
45.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+121%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+199%
5Y Avg
38.9x
+17%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-31%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+143%
5Y Avg
4.3x
-50%
Dividend Yield
2.02%
S&P 500
1.91%
+6%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-34%
5Y Avg
1.49%
+36%
| Metric | EL | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg EL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 34.9x | 18.8x+86% | 14.2x+146% | — |
| Trailing PE | -26.9x | 24.4x-210% | 18.9x-242% | 62.2x-143% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.8x | 15.2x+37% | 11.1x+87% | 28.1x-26% |
| Price/FCF | 45.7x | 20.7x+121% | 15.3x+199% | 38.9x+17% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-31% | 0.9x+143% | 4.3x-50% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.02% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 1.49% |
EL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEL Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
EL generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 8.7% margin — returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-1.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.68
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.1× FCF
~5.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-6.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$35M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
361M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Chinese demand collapse
A significant decline in Chinese consumer spending has severely impacted revenue and growth prospects.
High Risk
Travel retail glut
Excess inventory in travel retail channels has led to margin pressures and operational inefficiencies.
High Risk
Earnings-driven selloff
A steep stock price decline followed Q2 FY26 earnings, reflecting investor concerns despite headline beats.
Medium
Strategic overhaul risks
The company's major structural and strategic changes introduce execution uncertainty and transition costs.
Medium
Market sentiment shift
Persistent bearish sentiment and stock underperformance indicate broader investor skepticism.
Lower
Industry competition
Increased competition in prestige beauty may pressure market share and pricing power.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong brand moat
The company has a strong competitive moat, which supports its long-term valuation and market position.
Beauty Reimagined strategy
The 'Beauty Reimagined' strategy focuses on innovation and transformation, driving growth and stock appreciation.
Digital expansion
Investments in digital channels are expected to enhance customer reach and sales efficiency.
Cost-cutting initiatives
Operational cost reductions are improving profitability and supporting margin expansion.
Bullish investor coverage
Multiple investment theses highlight EL's potential, with noted stock price appreciation post-coverage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$84.81
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$66.22
+28.1% from the low
52-Week High
$121.64
-30.3% from the high
1 Month
+6.00%
3 Month
-1.41%
YTD
-20.6%
1 Year
+13.5%
3Y CAGR
-24.6%
5Y CAGR
-22.1%
10Y CAGR
-0.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
34.9x
vs 18.4x median
+90% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.3%
vs +0.9% median
-62% below peer median
Net Margin
-1.7%
vs 3.3% median
-150% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $30.6B | 34.9x | +0.3% | -1.7% | Hold | +20.4% |
COT COTY Coty Inc. | $1.7B | 8.8x | +0.9% | -9.3% | Hold | +102.1% |
IFF IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $19.6B | 17.3x | +0.8% | 7.8% | Buy | +14.9% |
ELF ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $3.8B | 19.5x | +5.1% | 3.3% | Buy | +16.5% |
IPA IPAR Inter Parfums, Inc. | $3.2B | 20.3x | +8.2% | 13.5% | Buy | +13.0% |
SKI SKIN The Beauty Health Company | $86M | — | -8.2% | -2.0% | Hold | +130.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EL Dividend and Capital Return
EL returns 2.1% total yield, led by a 2.02% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
2.02%
Payout Ratio
—
How EL Splits Its Return
Div 2.02%
Dividend 2.02%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-17.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$35M
Estimated Shares Retired
412.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
361M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.40 | -39.9% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | $2.33 | -11.7% | 0.1% | 2.6% |
| 2023 | $2.64 | +7.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $2.46 | +12.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsEL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $102, implying +20.4% from the current price of $85. The bear case scenario is $13 and the bull case is $28.
02What is the EL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EL is $102 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $140 (+65.1% from today), and the low-end target is $75 (-11.6%). The base case model target is $21.
03Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock overvalued in 2026?
EL trades at 34.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EL in 2026 are: (1) Chinese demand collapse — A significant decline in Chinese consumer spending has severely impacted revenue and growth prospects. (2) Travel retail glut — Excess inventory in travel retail channels has led to margin pressures and operational inefficiencies. (3) Earnings-driven selloff — A steep stock price decline followed Q2 FY26 earnings, reflecting investor concerns despite headline beats. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EL will report consensus revenue of $14.9B (+0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.81 (+219.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.2B in revenue.
06When does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. generate?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.7%. EL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($35M TTM).