Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing EL more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
21 bullish · 4 bearish · 46 covering EL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
21
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$107
+23.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
39.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.3B
EL price targets
Three scenarios for where EL stock could go
Current
~$87
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
EL · NYSEConsumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal ProductsJune year-end
Estée Lauder Companies is a global prestige beauty conglomerate that develops, manufactures, and markets luxury skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. It generates revenue primarily through product sales across its portfolio of over 25 prestige brands—with skincare representing its largest segment at roughly 60% of sales—through department stores, specialty retailers, e-commerce, and freestanding stores. The company's competitive advantage lies in its powerful portfolio of iconic prestige brands, global distribution reach in high-end retail channels, and deep expertise in luxury beauty marketing.
Market Cap
$31.3B
Revenue TTM
$14.8B
Net Income TTM
-$248M
Net Margin
-1.7%
EL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+95.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.09/$0.09
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.18
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.89/$0.83
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.91/$0.66
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.09/$0.09 | +4.3% | $3.4B/$3.4B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32/$0.18 | +82.1% | $3.5B/$3.4B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.89/$0.83 | +6.6% | $4.2B/$4.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.91/$0.66 | +37.9% | $3.7B/$3.7B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.4B
-3.0% YoY
FY2
$14.0B
-3.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.71
+204.0% YoY
FY2
$0.77
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 8.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $14.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Skin Care
48.9%
-12.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
E M E A
37.5%
-12.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Skin Care is the largest disclosed segment at 48.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 12.0% YoY.
E M E A is the largest reported region at 37.5%, down 12.5% YoY.
EL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $60 — implies -24.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
24.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EL
-27.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
209% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
EL
-27.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
240% discount
vs EL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-27.5x
vs
5Y Average
62.2x
144% discount
Forward PE
39.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+105%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+167%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-27.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-209%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
-240%
5Y Avg
62.2x
-144%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+39%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+85%
5Y Avg
28.1x
-25%
Price/FCF
46.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+119%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+197%
5Y Avg
38.9x
+20%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-30%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+159%
5Y Avg
4.3x
-49%
Dividend Yield
1.98%
S&P 500
1.88%
+5%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
-28%
5Y Avg
1.49%
+33%
| Metric | EL | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg EL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 39.0x | 19.1x+105% | 14.6x+167% | — |
| Trailing PE | -27.5x | 25.2x-209% | 19.6x-240% | 62.2x-144% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2x | 15.3x+39% | 11.4x+85% | 28.1x-25% |
| Price/FCF | 46.7x | 21.3x+119% | 15.7x+197% | 38.9x+20% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-30% | 0.8x+159% | 4.3x-49% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.98% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 1.49% |
EL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEL Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
EL generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 8.7% margin — returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-1.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.68
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.1× FCF
~5.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-6.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$35M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
361M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Innovation & R&D Uncertainty
Pharmaceutical R&D is costly and uncertain; 31% of Eli Lilly’s risk profile is tied to tech & innovation. New products may fail to be developed, licensed, or achieve commercial success, jeopardizing revenue replacement for declining legacy drugs.
High Risk
Pricing Pressures & Market Dynamics
Eli Lilly faces significant pricing and reimbursement pressures, notably from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. A potential price war in the GLP‑1 market could erode margins on key drugs such as Mounjaro and Zepbound.
High Risk
Concentration Risk
The Tirzepatide franchise (Mounjaro & Zepbound) currently contributes a substantial portion of revenue. Dependence on these few products exposes earnings to volatility if sales decline or competition intensifies.
High Risk
Financial & Corporate Risks
The company’s debt exceeds equity by more than 2:1, and share price volatility is high, with a 52‑week low of $48.37 and high of $104.53. This financial profile increases sensitivity to market downturns.
Medium
Product Pipeline & Competition
Growth relies on timely replenishment of the product portfolio. Patent expirations, such as for Trulicity, open the door to generic or biosimilar competition, potentially eroding market share.
Medium
Production & Supply Chain Issues
Manufacturing difficulties and supply chain disruptions can limit product availability and increase costs, impacting sales and margins across its premium beauty portfolio.
Lower
Regulatory & Legal Challenges
The company faces stringent regulatory oversight; compliance issues, regulatory changes, and litigation—e.g., related to compounded GLP‑1 medications—can adversely affect operations and financial results.
Lower
Brand & Reputation
Maintaining brand image is critical; competition, marketing, and distribution channel risks can damage reputation, potentially reducing consumer demand for its premium products.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Cost-Cutting Plan
Estée Lauder’s Profit Recovery and Growth Plan targets $800 million to $1 billion in annual cost savings by 2027 through workforce reductions and supplier consolidation. Early execution has already lifted gross margins, setting the stage for margin restoration and more profitable investments.
Beauty Reimagined Initiative
The strategy focuses on reigniting sales growth by adapting to evolving consumer preferences and expanding into high‑growth channels such as TikTok Shop and Amazon. Positive performance during shopping festivals signals the potential for success in these new platforms.
Brand Strength & Pricing Power
The company’s portfolio of global brands commands strong pricing power, which can support a return to normalized profitability once earnings recover to prior levels.
Operating Margin & Skincare Growth
Recent reports show an increase in operating margin and robust performance in the skincare segment, with strong demand for makeup products. Organic sales growth has also been positive, underscoring the company’s resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$86.67
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.66
+53.0% from the low
52-Week High
$121.64
-28.7% from the high
1 Month
+22.23%
3 Month
-12.87%
YTD
-18.8%
1 Year
+48.1%
3Y CAGR
-25.1%
5Y CAGR
-22.0%
10Y CAGR
-0.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
39.0x
vs 19.2x median
+103% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-3.0%
vs +0.0% median
-14649% below peer median
Net Margin
-1.7%
vs 6.8% median
-124% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $31.3B | 39.0x | -3.0% | -1.7% | Hold | +23.1% |
COT COTY Coty Inc. | $2.3B | 9.7x | +0.0% | -9.3% | Hold | +51.3% |
IFF IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $21.2B | 18.9x | -0.6% | 7.8% | Buy | +5.8% |
ELF ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $3.4B | 19.8x | +25.2% | 6.8% | Buy | +54.9% |
IPA IPAR Inter Parfums, Inc. | $3.0B | 19.6x | +7.8% | 13.5% | Hold | +13.4% |
SKI SKIN The Beauty Health Company | $121M | — | -2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +39.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EL Dividend and Capital Return
EL returns 2.2% total yield, led by a 2.07% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
2.07%
Payout Ratio
—
How EL Splits Its Return
Div 2.07%
Dividend 2.07%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-17.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$35M
Estimated Shares Retired
403.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
361M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.40 | -39.9% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | $2.33 | -11.7% | 0.1% | 2.6% |
| 2023 | $2.64 | +7.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $2.46 | +12.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsEL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $107, implying +23.1% from the current price of $87.
02What is the EL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EL is $107 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $140 (+61.5% from today), and the low-end target is $70 (-19.2%).
03Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock overvalued in 2026?
EL trades at 39.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EL in 2026 are: (1) Innovation & R&D Uncertainty — Pharmaceutical R&D is costly and uncertain; 31% of Eli Lilly’s risk profile is tied to tech & innovation. (2) Pricing Pressures & Market Dynamics — Eli Lilly faces significant pricing and reimbursement pressures, notably from the U. (3) Concentration Risk — The Tirzepatide franchise (Mounjaro & Zepbound) currently contributes a substantial portion of revenue. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EL will report consensus revenue of $14.4B (-3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.71 (+204.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.0B in revenue.
06When does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. generate?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.7%. EL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($35M TTM).