Upside case
Bull case
$119+128.4%
EMA would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Emera Incorporated (EMA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
1
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 covering EMA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$53
+1.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$37 – $119
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
1
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.8B
EMA price targets
Three scenarios for where EMA stock could go
Current
~$52
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $52
Bear
$37
Base
$77
Bull
$119
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$77+47.7%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$37-29.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push EMA down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Emera Incorporated
EMA · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Emera is a regulated electric and gas utility company operating primarily in Florida, Canada, and the Caribbean. It generates revenue through regulated rate-based returns on its electricity generation, transmission, and distribution assets — with its Florida operations contributing roughly half of earnings — plus natural gas distribution and energy marketing activities. The company's moat stems from its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, providing stable cash flows through government-approved returns on its essential infrastructure investments.
Market Cap
$15.8B
Revenue TTM
$8.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
12.4%
EMA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
70%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+31.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.02/$0.71
Revenue
$2.7B/$1.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.57/$0.47
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.44
Revenue
$2.1B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.42
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.02/$0.71 | +184.9% | $2.7B/$1.5B | +83.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.57/$0.47 | +22.5% | $2.0B/$1.8B | +9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.44 | +45.7% | $2.1B/$1.7B | +24.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.40/$0.42 | -3.9% | $1.5B/$1.1B | +28.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.7B
-0.8% YoY
FY2
$9.5B
+9.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.51
-2.7% YoY
FY2
$3.67
+4.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.7B
FCF Margin: -19.7%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.84
Expected Revenue
$1.7B
EMA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
EMA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Florida Electric Utility
48.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
75.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Florida Electric Utility is the largest disclosed segment at 48.2% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 75.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
EMA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $60 — implies +13.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
13.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EMA
21.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
17% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
EMA
21.0x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+7% premium
vs EMA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.0x
vs
5Y Average
16.6x
+26% premium
Forward PE
19.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+3%
Utilities
17.2x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-17%
Utilities
19.7x
+7%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+26%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Utilities
1.73x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-2%
Utilities
11.5x
+30%
5Y Avg
12.7x
+18%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-18%
Utilities
2.2x
+18%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+57%
Dividend Yield
2.70%
S&P 500
1.88%
+44%
Utilities
3.07%
-12%
5Y Avg
4.33%
-38%
| Metric | EMA | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg EMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.6x | 19.1x | 17.2x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.0x | 25.2x-17% | 19.7x | 16.6x+26% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.73x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0x | 15.3x | 11.5x+30% | 12.7x+18% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | — |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-18% | 2.2x+18% | 1.6x+57% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.70% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 4.33% |
EMA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEMA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
EMA earns 21.8% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.7% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+22.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.61
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
21.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$365M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
52.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
300M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageEMA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Approval and Delays
The EMA's rigorous approval process can lead to significant delays in bringing drugs to market, impacting revenue projections and overall valuation. A delayed approval can cause stock prices to underperform as investors anticipate lower future earnings.
High Risk
Post-Market Surveillance and Safety Concerns
The EMA continuously monitors drug safety post-approval, and new safety concerns can lead to severe consequences such as market withdrawal. Negative findings can damage a company's reputation and lead to significant financial penalties, causing sharp declines in stock value.
High Risk
Risk Management Plans (RMPs) and Compliance
The EMA requires comprehensive RMPs to minimize risks associated with medicines. Non-compliance can result in fines, mandatory changes to drug labeling, or even suspension of marketing authorizations, negatively affecting stock performance.
Medium
Medicine Shortages and Supply Chain Issues
Manufacturing difficulties or increased demand can lead to medicine shortages within the EU, impacting patient access and company operations. Persistent shortages can result in loss of market share and reputational damage.
Medium
Conflicts of Interest and Regulatory Influence
Concerns about potential conflicts of interest within the EMA may lead to criticism of regulatory decisions. While difficult to quantify, such concerns can erode public trust and lead to increased scrutiny of the industry.
Lower
Financial Dependence on Industry Fees
The EMA's funding model relies heavily on fees from pharmaceutical companies, raising questions about the impartiality of regulatory assessments. This financial dependence could be perceived as a risk factor by investors.
Lower
Technical Analysis Indicators (EMA)
The EMA indicator can generate false signals in volatile markets, leading to potentially unprofitable trades. Traders relying solely on this indicator may incur losses if the signals are misleading.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EMA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
C$20 Billion Capital Plan
Emera has filed materials detailing a C$20 billion capital plan for 2026, which is expected to drive growth and enhance operational capabilities. This significant investment could position the company favorably in the energy sector.
Strong Analyst Sentiment
The consensus rating for Emera among Wall Street analysts is 'Moderate Buy,' with a notable number of analysts recommending a buy. This positive sentiment reflects confidence in the company's future performance.
Positive Technical Indicators
Overall, technical signals for Emera indicate a 'Strong Buy' candidate evaluation, with the stock trading above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This trend suggests bullish momentum and potential for continued price appreciation.
April Seasonality Advantage
Historical data shows that April has a 100% probability of positive returns for Emera, indicating it could be an ideal month for investment. This seasonal trend may attract investors looking for short-term gains.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EMA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$52.27
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.90
+24.7% from the low
52-Week High
$54.06
-3.3% from the high
1 Month
-0.42%
3 Month
+5.87%
YTD
+6.2%
1 Year
+19.2%
3Y CAGR
+5.9%
5Y CAGR
+2.6%
10Y CAGR
+3.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EMA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.6x
vs 19.1x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.8%
vs +4.3% median
-118% below peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 13.1% median
-5% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EMA EMA Emera Incorporated | $15.8B | 19.6x | -0.8% | 12.4% | Hold | +1.4% |
AES AES The AES Corporation | $10.2B | 6.2x | +0.4% | 8.4% | Hold | +27.3% |
ETR ETR Entergy Corporation | $51.7B | 25.7x | +4.9% | 13.6% | Buy | +3.5% |
PPL PPL PPL Corporation | $27.5B | 18.9x | +6.8% | 13.1% | Buy | +12.7% |
EVR EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $18.6B | 19.1x | +3.4% | 14.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
PNW PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | $12.1B | 21.2x | +4.3% | 12.0% | Hold | +2.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EMA Dividend and Capital Return
EMA returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.70% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.70%
Payout Ratio
52.9%
How EMA Splits Its Return
Div 2.70%
Dividend 2.70%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.2%
5Y Div CAGR
2.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
300M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.07 | -21.1% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2024 | $2.63 | +27.1% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| 2023 | $2.07 | +0.4% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| 2022 | $2.06 | -0.0% | 0.0% | 4.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsEMA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Emera Incorporated (EMA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Emera Incorporated (EMA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 1 analysts covering the stock, 0 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $53, implying +1.4% from the current price of $52. The bear case scenario is $37 and the bull case is $119.
02What is the EMA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EMA is $53 based on 1 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $53 (+1.4% from today), and the low-end target is $53 (+1.4%). The base case model target is $77.
03Is Emera Incorporated (EMA) stock overvalued in 2026?
EMA trades at 19.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Emera Incorporated (EMA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EMA in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Approval and Delays — The EMA's rigorous approval process can lead to significant delays in bringing drugs to market, impacting revenue projections and overall valuation. (2) Post-Market Surveillance and Safety Concerns — The EMA continuously monitors drug safety post-approval, and new safety concerns can lead to severe consequences such as market withdrawal. (3) Risk Management Plans (RMPs) and Compliance — The EMA requires comprehensive RMPs to minimize risks associated with medicines. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Emera Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EMA will report consensus revenue of $8.7B (-0.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.51 (-2.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.5B in revenue.
06When does Emera Incorporated (EMA) report its next earnings?
Emera Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $0.84 and revenue of $1.7B. Over recent quarters, EMA has beaten EPS estimates 70% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Emera Incorporated generate?
Emera Incorporated (EMA) had a free cash outflow of $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.7%. EMA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).