Upside case
Bull case
$26-29.1%
The bull case prices PPL at 13x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
PPL Corporation (PPL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering PPL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$42
+12.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$9 – $26
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $27.5B
PPL price targets
Three scenarios for where PPL stock could go
Current
~$37
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $37
Bear
$9
Base
$51
Bull
$26
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$51+37.6%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$9-76.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push PPL down roughly 77% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
PPL Corporation
PPL · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
PPL Corporation is a regulated utility holding company that delivers electricity and natural gas to customers in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and the United Kingdom. It makes money primarily through regulated utility operations — collecting rates approved by state commissions — with its Pennsylvania and Kentucky segments each contributing roughly half of its revenue. The company's key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, which provides stable, predictable cash flows and returns on invested capital.
Market Cap
$27.5B
Revenue TTM
$9.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
13.1%
PPL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.60/$0.55
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.39
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.46
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.41/$0.41
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.60/$0.55 | +8.5% | $2.5B/$2.2B | +16.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.32/$0.39 | -16.9% | $2.0B/$1.8B | +11.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.48/$0.46 | +4.4% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.41/$0.41 | +0.2% | $2.3B/$2.4B | -6.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.7B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$10.3B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.92
+20.9% YoY
FY2
$2.20
+14.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.4B
FCF Margin: -15.5%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.61
Expected Revenue
$2.5B
PPL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PPL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Kentucky Regulated
41.0%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Kentucky Regulated
41.0%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Kentucky Regulated is the largest disclosed segment at 41.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.0% YoY.
Kentucky Regulated is the largest reported region at 41.0%, up 5.0% YoY.
PPL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $34 — implies -8.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PPL
23.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
9% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
PPL
23.1x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+17% premium
vs PPL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.1x
vs
5Y Average
26.2x
12% discount
Forward PE
18.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-1%
Utilities
17.2x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-9%
Utilities
19.7x
+17%
5Y Avg
26.2x
-12%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Utilities
1.73x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-17%
Utilities
11.5x
+10%
5Y Avg
12.6x
+1%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
2.2x
—
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-3%
Utilities
2.2x
+39%
5Y Avg
3.0x
+2%
Dividend Yield
2.89%
S&P 500
1.88%
+54%
Utilities
3.07%
-6%
5Y Avg
3.78%
-24%
| Metric | PPL | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg PPL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.9x | 19.1x | 17.2x+10% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.1x | 25.2x | 19.7x+17% | 26.2x-12% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.73x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7x | 15.3x-17% | 11.5x+10% | 12.6x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | 2.2x |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 2.2x+39% | 3.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.89% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 3.78% |
PPL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPPL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PPL earns 23.6% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.9% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.58
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
23.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$17.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.07
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
67.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
745M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pagePPL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Management
PPL’s interest payments are not well covered by operating cash flow, and the company carries a substantial amount of long‑term debt. Increased leverage could erode financial flexibility and limit the ability to fund future growth or weather downturns.
High Risk
Capital Project Execution
Delays or cost overruns in major capital projects, such as the $20 billion capital plan for 2025‑2028, could materially impact financial performance and erode investor confidence. Project execution risk is amplified by the complexity of regulated utility infrastructure.
Medium
Regulatory Policy Impact
Policy changes or unfavorable rulings—particularly around rate‑increase approvals and renewable energy mandates—could constrain PPL’s ability to execute growth strategies and planned investments. Regulatory shifts may also affect the company’s competitive positioning.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risk
PPL’s heavy reliance on AI and complex IT systems exposes it to significant cyber‑threats. A breach could have disastrous consequences, potentially disrupting operations and damaging the company’s reputation.
Medium
Environmental Compliance
Evolving regulations on emissions, waste management, and water quality—especially concerning historical coal‑fired generation—pose a risk. Regulators may not approve full cost‑recovery mechanisms, and new rules could substantially increase operating costs.
Lower
Valuation Risk
PPL’s current P/E ratio is higher than industry averages, indicating investors may be paying a premium per dollar of earnings. This leaves less room for error if growth or regulatory outcomes falter, potentially impacting share price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PPL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Visible Rate‑Base Growth
PPL plans a $23 billion capital investment for 2026‑2029 to expand its rate base, targeting smart‑grid upgrades, resiliency projects, and connections for large loads such as data centers. If regulators approve the recovery of these investments, the company expects earnings and EPS to compound at a mid‑to‑high single‑digit target range.
Defensive Profile & Low Volatility
With a beta of 0.24 and below‑market volatility, PPL offers a stable income stream and lower drawdowns. Its regulated utility operations in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Rhode Island provide reliable cash‑flow generation.
Dividend Growth Commitment
PPL has a track record of raising its dividend and has pledged 4‑6% annual dividend growth. Recent increases reinforce the income cushion for investors.
Strong Financial Performance
Quarterly revenue rose 2.8% YoY, and 2025 revenue is projected to grow 6.85% YoY with earnings up 33.07%. The company benefits from rising data‑center demand in Pennsylvania and Kentucky.
High Institutional Confidence
Institutional ownership stands at approximately 76.99%, indicating strong confidence in PPL’s stability and prospects. Modest short interest further signals limited bearish sentiment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PPL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$36.88
52W Range Position
54%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$33.12
+11.4% from the low
52-Week High
$40.10
-8.0% from the high
1 Month
-4.75%
3 Month
+2.67%
YTD
+5.0%
1 Year
+2.1%
3Y CAGR
+8.9%
5Y CAGR
+5.0%
10Y CAGR
-0.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PPL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.9x
vs 19.6x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +5.1% median
+32% above peer median
Net Margin
13.1%
vs 14.6% median
-11% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PPL PPL PPL Corporation | $27.5B | 18.9x | +6.8% | 13.1% | Buy | +12.7% |
AEE AEE Ameren Corporation | $30.3B | 20.4x | +7.1% | 17.2% | Hold | +10.5% |
WEC WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. | $37.1B | 20.4x | +5.5% | 16.2% | Hold | +7.8% |
EVR EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $18.6B | 19.1x | +3.4% | 14.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
OGE OGE OGE Energy Corp. | $9.9B | 19.6x | +5.1% | 14.0% | Hold | -1.9% |
AVA AVA Avista Corporation | $3.3B | 15.8x | +3.4% | 9.8% | Hold | +0.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PPL Dividend and Capital Return
PPL returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 2.89% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.89%
Payout Ratio
67.2%
How PPL Splits Its Return
Div 2.89%
Dividend 2.89%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.07
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.6%
5Y Div CAGR
-8.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
745M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.09 | +5.8% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2024 | $1.03 | +7.3% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $0.96 | +9.7% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $0.88 | -47.3% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsPPL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is PPL Corporation (PPL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
PPL Corporation (PPL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $42, implying +12.7% from the current price of $37. The bear case scenario is $9 and the bull case is $26.
02What is the PPL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PPL is $42 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $48 (+30.2% from today), and the low-end target is $37 (+0.3%). The base case model target is $51.
03Is PPL Corporation (PPL) stock overvalued in 2026?
PPL trades at 18.9x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for PPL Corporation (PPL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PPL in 2026 are: (1) Debt Management — PPL’s interest payments are not well covered by operating cash flow, and the company carries a substantial amount of long‑term debt. (2) Capital Project Execution — Delays or cost overruns in major capital projects, such as the $20 billion capital plan for 2025‑2028, could materially impact financial performance and erode investor confidence. (3) Regulatory Policy Impact — Policy changes or unfavorable rulings—particularly around rate‑increase approvals and renewable energy mandates—could constrain PPL’s ability to execute growth strategies and planned investments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is PPL Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PPL will report consensus revenue of $9.7B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.92 (+20.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.3B in revenue.
06When does PPL Corporation (PPL) report its next earnings?
PPL Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $0.61 and revenue of $2.5B. Over recent quarters, PPL has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does PPL Corporation generate?
PPL Corporation (PPL) had a free cash outflow of $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.5%. PPL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).