Upside case
Bull case
$173+72.6%
PNW would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
24
analysts
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 24 covering PNW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$103
+2.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$85 – $173
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.1B
PNW price targets
Three scenarios for where PNW stock could go
Current
~$100
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $100
Bear
$85
Base
$110
Bull
$173
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$110+9.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PNW — at roughly 23x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$85-15.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push PNW down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
PNW · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation is a regulated electric utility holding company that provides electricity generation, transmission, and distribution services primarily in Arizona through its subsidiary Arizona Public Service Company. It makes money through regulated electricity rates charged to approximately 1.3 million retail customers—with residential, commercial, and industrial segments—plus wholesale power sales to other utilities. Its key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territory, which provides stable, predictable returns through cost recovery mechanisms approved by state regulators.
Market Cap
$12.1B
Revenue TTM
$5.5B
Net Income TTM
$654M
Net Margin
12.0%
PNW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+258.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.58/$1.58
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.39/$3.04
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.05
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.27/$-0.03
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.58/$1.58 | +0.0% | $1.4B/$1.8B | -23.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.39/$3.04 | +11.5% | $1.8B/$1.2B | +55.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.05 | +160.0% | $1.1B/$1.2B | -3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.27/$-0.03 | +1000.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +6.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.7B
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$6.1B
+6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.18
-1.9% YoY
FY2
$5.53
+6.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$992M
FCF Margin: -18.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PNW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PNW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electric Service
91.4%
-0.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Electric Service is the largest disclosed segment at 91.4% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.8% YoY.
PNW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $86 — implies -17.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
17.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PNW
19.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
21% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
PNW
19.8x
vs
Utilities
19.8x
In line with benchmark
vs PNW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.8x
vs
5Y Average
16.2x
+23% premium
Forward PE
21.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+11%
Utilities
17.2x
+24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-21%
Utilities
19.8x
-0%
5Y Avg
16.2x
+23%
PEG Ratio
29.16x
S&P 500
1.74x
+1574%
Utilities
1.67x
+1642%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Utilities
11.3x
+27%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+25%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Utilities
2.1x
+7%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+16%
Dividend Yield
3.46%
S&P 500
1.87%
+85%
Utilities
3.09%
+12%
5Y Avg
4.33%
-20%
| Metric | PNW | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg PNW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.2x | 19.1x+11% | 17.2x+24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.8x | 25.2x-21% | 19.8x | 16.2x+23% |
| PEG Ratio | 29.16x | 1.74x+1574% | 1.67x+1642% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4x | 15.2x | 11.3x+27% | 11.4x+25% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-28% | 2.1x | 2.0x+16% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.46% | 1.87% | 3.09% | 4.33% |
PNW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPNW Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PNW earns 27.5% operating margin on regulated earnings, 3.5% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.28
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
27.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$17.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.5%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.47
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
68.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
121M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pagePNW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Environment
Regulatory actions and pushback on rate hikes are significantly pressuring margins and impacting earnings for PNW. The Arizona Public Service rate case has led to negative earnings per share expectations for 2026 and 2027.
High Risk
Economic Slowdown Risks
The Pacific Northwest is facing stagnant job growth and rising unemployment, with some economists estimating a significant risk of recession in the coming year for California, Washington, and Oregon.
Medium
Financial Performance
PNW has experienced a year-over-year decline in financial results, with increased operating and maintenance costs contributing to lower earnings. This trend raises concerns about the company's profitability moving forward.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analysts consider PNW to be significantly overvalued, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio viewed as unattractive. Projected annualized returns are expected to be below 3.5%, limiting near-term upside.
Medium
Technical Indicators
The stock presents mixed technical signals, with a buy signal from the long-term moving average contrasted by a sell signal from the short-term moving average. This suggests uncertainty in the stock's short-term performance.
Lower
Labor Shortages
Attracting and retaining a skilled workforce remains a top challenge for manufacturers in the Pacific Northwest. This could impact productivity and growth in the region's key industries.
Lower
Supply Chain Disruptions
Manufacturers in the PNW continue to face challenges from complex global supply chains, exacerbated by events like the pandemic. These disruptions can lead to increased costs and delays in production.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PNW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Customer and Sales Growth
Pinnacle West has demonstrated robust retail sales growth of 5.2% and a 2.4% increase in its customer base in a recent quarter. Management has reaffirmed a long-term outlook of 4-6% sales growth and 1.5-2.5% customer growth.
Transmission Projects
Upcoming transmission projects are expected to provide additional positive impacts, supported by favorable economic conditions.
Financial Performance
In 2025, Pinnacle West Capital's revenue increased by 4.20% to $5.34 billion, and earnings rose by 1.27%. The company reported solid 2025 results, with full-year net income of $616.5 million, up from $608.8 million in 2024, driven by customer growth, higher electricity usage, and increased transmission revenues.
Analyst Target Increases
Several analysts have increased their price targets for PNW, with some moving into the $100 to $109 range, reflecting refreshed models and updated assumptions. The average 12-month price target from 16 analysts is $103.00.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PNW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$100.17
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$85.32
+17.4% from the low
52-Week High
$104.92
-4.5% from the high
1 Month
-2.24%
3 Month
+7.11%
YTD
+13.6%
1 Year
+7.2%
3Y CAGR
+7.9%
5Y CAGR
+3.2%
10Y CAGR
+3.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PNW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.2x
vs 20.4x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
vs +5.4% median
-19% below peer median
Net Margin
12.0%
vs 16.2% median
-26% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PNW PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | $12.1B | 21.2x | +4.3% | 12.0% | Hold | +2.9% |
AEE AEE Ameren Corporation | $30.3B | 20.4x | +7.1% | 17.2% | Hold | +10.5% |
WEC WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. | $37.1B | 20.4x | +5.5% | 16.2% | Hold | +7.8% |
EVR EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $18.6B | 19.1x | +3.4% | 14.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
NWE NWE Northwestern Energy Group Inc | $4.4B | 18.9x | +5.4% | 10.2% | Hold | -6.7% |
IDA IDA IDACORP, Inc. | $8.0B | 22.6x | +3.8% | 18.6% | Buy | +2.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PNW Dividend and Capital Return
PNW returns 3.5% total yield, led by a 3.46% dividend, raised 14 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.46%
Payout Ratio
68.6%
How PNW Splits Its Return
Div 3.46%
Dividend 3.46%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.47
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.7%
5Y Div CAGR
2.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
121M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.82 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.60 | +1.7% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2024 | $3.54 | +1.7% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $3.47 | +1.8% | 0.1% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $3.42 | +2.2% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsPNW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $103, implying +2.9% from the current price of $100. The bear case scenario is $85 and the bull case is $173.
02What is the PNW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PNW is $103 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $115 (+14.8% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-10.2%). The base case model target is $110.
03Is Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) stock overvalued in 2026?
PNW trades at 21.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PNW in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Environment — Regulatory actions and pushback on rate hikes are significantly pressuring margins and impacting earnings for PNW. (2) Economic Slowdown Risks — The Pacific Northwest is facing stagnant job growth and rising unemployment, with some economists estimating a significant risk of recession in the coming year for California, Washington, and Oregon. (3) Financial Performance — PNW has experienced a year-over-year decline in financial results, with increased operating and maintenance costs contributing to lower earnings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Pinnacle West Capital Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PNW will report consensus revenue of $5.7B (+4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.18 (-1.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.1B in revenue.
06When does Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PNW is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Pinnacle West Capital Corporation generate?
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) had a free cash outflow of $992M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.2%. PNW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).