Upside case
Bull case
$88+45.4%
EMBJ would need investors to value it at roughly 32x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
21
analysts
15 bullish · 3 bearish · 21 covering EMBJ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
3
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$73
+20.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$42 – $88
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
EMBJ price targets
Three scenarios for where EMBJ stock could go
Current
~$61
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $61
Bear
$42
Base
$67
Bull
$88
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$67+10.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing EMBJ — at roughly 24x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$42-30.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push EMBJ down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Embraer S.A.
EMBJ · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
Embraer is a Brazilian aerospace and defense company that designs, manufactures, and services commercial, executive, and military aircraft. It generates revenue primarily from aircraft sales — commercial jets (~40%), executive jets (~30%), and defense & security systems (~20%) — with the remainder from services and support. The company's key advantage is its specialized expertise in regional and executive jets — a niche where it competes effectively against larger rivals through focused engineering and established customer relationships.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$8.0B
Net Income TTM
$312M
Net Margin
3.9%
EMBJ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+76.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.21
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.30/$0.61
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.17
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.16/$0.29
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.40/$0.21 | +90.5% | $1.8B/$1.1B | +63.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.30/$0.61 | -50.8% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.83/$0.17 | +388.2% | $2.7B/$2.5B | +4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.16/$0.29 | -44.8% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.9B
+11.6% YoY
FY2
$9.8B
+10.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.88
+8.7% YoY
FY2
$2.23
+18.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$380M
FCF Margin: 4.8%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.61
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
EMBJ beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
EMBJ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Services
100.0%
+15.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
65.4%
+17.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Services is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.3% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 65.4%, up 17.7% YoY.
EMBJ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $64 — implies +5.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EMBJ
31.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+29% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
EMBJ
31.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
+133% premium
vs EMBJ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.6x
vs
5Y Average
33.5x
6% discount
Forward PE
21.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+16%
Financial Services
10.7x
+104%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+29%
Financial Services
13.6x
+133%
5Y Avg
33.5x
-6%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Financial Services
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-12%
Financial Services
11.4x
+18%
5Y Avg
14.5x
-7%
Price/FCF
28.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+37%
Financial Services
11.1x
+155%
5Y Avg
30.6x
-7%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-53%
Financial Services
2.3x
-38%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-7%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
S&P 500
1.91%
-89%
Financial Services
2.63%
-92%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | EMBJ | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg EMBJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.8x | 18.8x+16% | 10.7x+104% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.6x | 24.4x+29% | 13.6x+133% | 33.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.5x | 15.2x-12% | 11.4x+18% | 14.5x |
| Price/FCF | 28.3x | 20.7x+37% | 11.1x+155% | 30.6x |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-53% | 2.3x-38% | 1.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.21% | 1.91% | 2.63% | — |
EMBJ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEMBJ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EMBJ generates 8.3% ROE and 2.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.73
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
8.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$762M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
8.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$187M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
180M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageEMBJ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Overvaluation Risk
Embraer S.A. is currently trading approximately 35.3% above its GF Value™ of $48.63, indicating significant overvaluation. This is compounded by a P/E (TTM) ratio of 34.1x, which is 46% higher than its 5-year median, suggesting that the stock price may not be sustainable.
High Risk
Revenue Guidance Shortfall
The company's 2026 revenue guidance of $8.2–$8.5 billion is below analyst expectations of $8.79 billion, indicating potential slower aircraft delivery growth. This shortfall, combined with sector-wide weakness due to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions, has contributed to increased stock volatility.
High Risk
Bankruptcy Risk
Embraer's Altman Z-Score is 1.65, indicating an increased risk of bankruptcy. Despite a current ratio of 1.50 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7, the company has a net cash position of -$148.83 million, raising concerns about its financial health.
Medium
Execution and Margin Capture
Although Embraer has a substantial backlog of $31.6 billion, the market is concerned about its ability to execute and capture margins effectively. This is a common challenge for capital goods manufacturers, which could impact profitability.
Medium
Profitability Concerns
Despite experiencing revenue growth, Embraer's profitability remains thin, with a profit margin of only 4.31%. This raises questions about the sustainability of its growth and overall financial performance.
Medium
Market Volatility
The stock is vulnerable to short-term volatility and profit-taking, particularly when broader market sentiment turns negative. This susceptibility could lead to significant price fluctuations.
Lower
Industry Competition
Embraer operates in a highly competitive aerospace industry characterized by long product cycles and stringent customer qualifications. The constant need for investment to remain competitive against larger rivals poses an ongoing challenge.
Lower
Country Risk Premium
There is a country risk premium on Brazilian equities, currently noted at 3.24% as of January 2026. This premium reflects the additional risk associated with investing in Brazilian markets, which could affect investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EMBJ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Record Backlog
Embraer has achieved a record order backlog, reaching $32.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with options bringing the total to $50 billion. This backlog has seen a 22% year-over-year increase across segments.
Strong Demand and Deliveries
The company is experiencing strong demand across its commercial, executive, and defense markets, supported by significant orders, including major E195-E2 deals. Aircraft deliveries have surged, with a 47% year-over-year increase in Q1 2026.
Conservative Guidance and Margin Expansion
Management's financial guidance for fiscal year 2026 is considered conservative, suggesting potential for revenue beats and margin expansion. The company expects a 60 basis point growth rate expansion for FY 2026.
Operational Efficiency and Growth
Embraer has improved lead times for its E2 jets and is expected to continue seeing incremental operating efficiency. Earnings are forecast to grow by 18.1% per year, with EPS expected to grow by 29.3% per annum.
Attractive Valuation
EMBJ trades at a discount to key sector multiples. It also boasts a strong Value Style Score.
Market Position
Embraer is a leading aerospace company with a diverse product portfolio serving commercial, military, and executive aviation markets. Its executive jet segment, in particular, is expected to drive future growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EMBJ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$60.70
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$53.56
+13.3% from the low
52-Week High
$80.75
-24.8% from the high
1 Month
+7.64%
3 Month
+3.04%
YTD
-7.2%
1 Year
-9.3%
3Y CAGR
-3.2%
5Y CAGR
-1.9%
10Y CAGR
-1.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EMBJ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.8x
vs 24.8x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.6%
vs +7.8% median
+48% above peer median
Net Margin
3.9%
vs 4.7% median
-17% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EMB EMBJ Embraer S.A. | $10.9B | 21.8x | +11.6% | 3.9% | Buy | +20.3% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $175.6B | — | +7.8% | 2.5% | Buy | +26.4% |
TDG TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $75.0B | 33.2x | +11.7% | 21.6% | Buy | +18.1% |
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11.2B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 4.7% | Hold | +47.1% |
TXT TXT Textron Inc. | $15.6B | 13.7x | +4.2% | 6.1% | Hold | +20.0% |
KTO KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $10.2B | 70.9x | +14.5% | 2.1% | Buy | +102.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EMBJ Dividend and Capital Return
EMBJ returns capital mainly through $187M/year in buybacks (1.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.21% dividend — combining for 1.9% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
Payout Ratio
6.7%
How EMBJ Splits Its Return
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 0.21%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
27.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-10.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$187M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
180M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.38 | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | — |
| 2018 | $0.15 | -61.4% |
| 2017 | $0.39 | +242.9% |
| 2016 | $0.11 | -49.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsEMBJ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $73, implying +20.3% from the current price of $61. The bear case scenario is $42 and the bull case is $88.
02What is the EMBJ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EMBJ is $73 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $81 (+33.4% from today), and the low-end target is $65 (+7.1%). The base case model target is $67.
03Is Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) stock overvalued in 2026?
EMBJ trades at 21.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EMBJ in 2026 are: (1) Overvaluation Risk — Embraer S. (2) Revenue Guidance Shortfall — The company's 2026 revenue guidance of $8. (3) Bankruptcy Risk — Embraer's Altman Z-Score is 1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Embraer S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EMBJ will report consensus revenue of $8.9B (+11.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.88 (+8.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.8B in revenue.
06When does Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) report its next earnings?
Embraer S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $0.61 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, EMBJ has beaten EPS estimates 80% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Embraer S.A. generate?
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) generated $380M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.8%. EMBJ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($187M TTM).