Upside case
Bull case
$476+66.7%
HII would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
27
analysts
12 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 covering HII
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$420
+47.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$228 – $476
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.2B
HII price targets
Three scenarios for where HII stock could go
Current
~$285
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $285
Bear
$228
Base
$361
Bull
$476
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$361+26.5%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$228-20.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push HII down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
HII · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Huntington Ingalls Industries is America's largest military shipbuilder, designing, constructing, and maintaining naval vessels for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. It generates revenue primarily from long-term government contracts for ship construction (about 70% of sales) and fleet sustainment services (about 30%), with its Newport News segment building nuclear-powered carriers and submarines while Ingalls focuses on surface combatants. The company's moat lies in its specialized shipyards, decades of nuclear naval expertise, and high barriers to entry in defense contracting—making it essentially the sole provider of critical naval capabilities.
Market Cap
$11.2B
Revenue TTM
$12.8B
Net Income TTM
$605M
Net Margin
4.7%
HII Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.86/$3.23
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.68/$3.30
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.04/$3.72
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.79/$3.70
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.86/$3.23 | +19.5% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.68/$3.30 | +11.5% | $3.2B/$3.0B | +8.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.04/$3.72 | +8.6% | $3.5B/$3.1B | +12.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.79/$3.70 | +2.4% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.4B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$14.1B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$16.88
+9.6% YoY
FY2
$18.67
+10.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 8.2%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.84
Expected Revenue
$3.2B
HII beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HII Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Newport News Shipbuilding
51.5%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Newport News Shipbuilding is the largest disclosed segment at 51.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.0% YoY.
HII Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $337 — implies +18.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HII
18.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
24% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
HII
18.5x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
27% discount
vs HII 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.5x
vs
5Y Average
16.1x
+15% premium
Forward PE
16.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-12%
Industrials
21.2x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-24%
Industrials
25.6x
-27%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-4%
Industrials
13.9x
+5%
5Y Avg
13.1x
+11%
Price/FCF
14.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-32%
Industrials
20.0x
-29%
5Y Avg
17.2x
-18%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-71%
Industrials
1.6x
-42%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+5%
Dividend Yield
1.90%
S&P 500
1.91%
-1%
Industrials
1.21%
+56%
5Y Avg
2.17%
-12%
| Metric | HII | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg HII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.5x | 18.8x-12% | 21.2x-22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.5x | 24.4x-24% | 25.6x-27% | 16.1x+15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.5x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 13.1x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 14.2x | 20.7x-32% | 20.0x-29% | 17.2x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-71% | 1.6x-42% | 0.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.90% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.17% |
HII trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHII Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HII generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 8.2% margin — returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.39
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$774M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.2× FCF
~2.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.42
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
35.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
39M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHII Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
HII stock has shown significant volatility with an average drawdown of -13% during major systemic shocks, underperforming the broader market.
High Risk
Earnings Pressure
Flat net earnings and operating margin compression in Q1 2026 have contributed to a 30% stock decline since February 2026.
Medium
Defense Sector Risks
As a defense contractor, HII faces risks tied to government spending fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties impacting naval defense budgets.
Medium
Operational Challenges
The company's specialized shipbuilding operations are susceptible to cost overruns, delays, and supply chain disruptions.
Lower
Competitive Positioning
Despite risks, HII maintains a strong position in naval defense due to its expertise in nuclear-powered ships and advanced vessel construction.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HII Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AUKUS partnership
The AUKUS partnership highlights HII's strategic role in national security, driving growth and investor confidence.
Margin expansion
Legacy contracts rolling off are expected to improve margins, enhancing profitability and cash flows.
Strong cash flows
Robust cash flow generation supports upside potential and financial stability for HII.
Critical national security asset
HII's position as a vital defense contractor underpins its long-term growth and moat.
Stock price appreciation
HII's stock has seen significant growth, reflecting strong market confidence in its prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HII Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$285.43
52W Range Position
25%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$228.69
+24.8% from the low
52-Week High
$460.00
-38.0% from the high
1 Month
-13.34%
3 Month
-33.31%
YTD
-18.4%
1 Year
+21.9%
3Y CAGR
+9.3%
5Y CAGR
+6.6%
10Y CAGR
+5.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HII vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.5x
vs 19.8x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +5.4% median
-18% below peer median
Net Margin
4.7%
vs 8.0% median
-41% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11.2B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 4.7% | Hold | +47.1% |
GD GD General Dynamics Corporation | $94.7B | 21.0x | +5.4% | 8.1% | Buy | +17.5% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $117.8B | 17.1x | +4.8% | 6.4% | Buy | +24.3% |
NOC NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | $74.1B | 18.7x | +4.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +40.7% |
RTX RTX RTX Corporation | $249.9B | 26.7x | +6.0% | 8.0% | Buy | +20.9% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $175.6B | — | +7.8% | 2.5% | Buy | +26.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HII Dividend and Capital Return
HII returns 1.9% total yield, led by a 1.90% dividend, raised 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.90%
Payout Ratio
35.2%
How HII Splits Its Return
Div 1.90%
Dividend 1.90%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.42
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.3%
5Y Div CAGR
5.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
39M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.76 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.43 | +3.4% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| 2024 | $5.25 | +4.6% | 2.2% | 4.9% |
| 2023 | $5.02 | +5.0% | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $4.78 | +3.9% | 0.6% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsHII Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $420, implying +47.1% from the current price of $285. The bear case scenario is $228 and the bull case is $476.
02What is the HII stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HII is $420 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $421 (+47.5% from today), and the low-end target is $419 (+46.8%). The base case model target is $361.
03Is Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) stock overvalued in 2026?
HII trades at 16.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HII in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — HII stock has shown significant volatility with an average drawdown of -13% during major systemic shocks, underperforming the broader market. (2) Earnings Pressure — Flat net earnings and operating margin compression in Q1 2026 have contributed to a 30% stock decline since February 2026. (3) Defense Sector Risks — As a defense contractor, HII faces risks tied to government spending fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties impacting naval defense budgets. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HII will report consensus revenue of $13.4B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $16.88 (+9.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.1B in revenue.
06When does Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) report its next earnings?
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $3.84 and revenue of $3.2B. Over recent quarters, HII has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. generate?
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. HII returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).