Upside case
Bull case
$163+75.0%
TXT would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Textron Inc. (TXT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
29
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering TXT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$104
+11.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$83 – $163
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.2B
TXT price targets
Three scenarios for where TXT stock could go
Current
~$93
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $93
Bear
$83
Base
$126
Bull
$163
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$126+35.6%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$83-11.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push TXT down roughly 11% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Textron Inc.
TXT · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseJanuary year-end
Textron is a diversified industrial conglomerate that manufactures business jets, helicopters, defense systems, and specialty vehicles. It generates revenue primarily through its aviation segments — Textron Aviation (business jets) and Bell (helicopters) — which together account for roughly two-thirds of sales, with industrial products and finance operations contributing the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of established aerospace brands — particularly Cessna and Bell — with deep customer relationships in both commercial and defense markets.
Market Cap
$16.2B
Revenue TTM
$15.2B
Net Income TTM
$934M
Net Margin
6.1%
TXT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.55/$1.45
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.55/$1.46
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.73/$1.70
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.45/$1.30
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.55/$1.45 | +6.9% | $3.5B/$3.6B | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.55/$1.46 | +6.2% | $3.6B/$3.7B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73/$1.70 | +1.8% | $4.2B/$4.0B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.45/$1.30 | +11.5% | $3.7B/$3.5B | +5.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.9B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$16.9B
+6.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.18
+16.6% YoY
FY2
$6.93
+12.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$707M
FCF Margin: 4.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TXT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TXT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $14.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Textron Aviation
40.6%
+12.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International
60.2%
-30.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Textron Aviation is the largest disclosed segment at 40.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.5% YoY.
International is the largest reported region at 60.2%, down 30.9% YoY.
TXT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $170 — implies +79.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
79.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TXT
18.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
28% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
TXT
18.2x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
30% discount
vs TXT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.2x
vs
5Y Average
18.7x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
14.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-24%
Industrials
20.8x
-31%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
-28%
Industrials
25.9x
-30%
5Y Avg
18.7x
-3%
PEG Ratio
0.60x
S&P 500
1.75x
-66%
Industrials
1.59x
-62%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-27%
Industrials
13.9x
-19%
5Y Avg
13.2x
-15%
Price/FCF
18.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-14%
Industrials
20.6x
-11%
5Y Avg
20.6x
-11%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-65%
Industrials
1.6x
-31%
5Y Avg
1.2x
-6%
Dividend Yield
0.11%
S&P 500
1.88%
-94%
Industrials
1.24%
-91%
5Y Avg
0.11%
+2%
| Metric | TXT | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg TXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.4x | 19.1x-24% | 20.8x-31% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.2x | 25.2x-28% | 25.9x-30% | 18.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.60x | 1.75x-66% | 1.59x-62% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2x | 15.3x-27% | 13.9x-19% | 13.2x-15% |
| Price/FCF | 18.3x | 21.3x-14% | 20.6x-11% | 20.6x-11% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-65% | 1.6x-31% | 1.2x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.11% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.11% |
TXT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTXT Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TXT returns 6.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
14.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$707M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.2× FCF
~3.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.8%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
6.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.11
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
2.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
174M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTXT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Customer Concentration
Approximately 27% of Textron's revenue comes from the US government. A slowdown or lack of growth in defense spending could negatively impact the company.
High Risk
Market Cyclicality
The business jet market, served by Textron Aviation (Cessna and Beechcraft), is cyclical. Demand for these aircraft can decline during economic contractions.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Sensitivity
Textron's performance is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical events and industrial manufacturing activity. Economic volatility, such as fluctuations in interest rates or foreign exchange rates, can also impact demand for its products.
Medium
Supply Chain and Production
Risks include the cost of production, supplier reliability, and potential supply chain disruptions due to tariffs or other pressures. Manufacturing processes may also face challenges related to product quality and recalls.
Medium
Innovation and Technology
Textron faces risks associated with innovation and new product development, including reliance on technology and cybersecurity threats. The ability to protect trade secrets and patents is also a concern.
Medium
International Business
Textron's international operations carry risks related to establishing and maintaining facilities, reliance on partners, and regulatory compliance. Geopolitical factors in emerging markets can further complicate operations.
Lower
Competition
Textron faces intense competition from other aerospace and defense manufacturers. Competitors may develop new technologies that threaten Textron's market share.
Lower
Regulatory and Compliance
The company's operations are subject to stringent regulatory requirements, especially in the defense sector. Compliance with these regulations is critical to avoid potential penalties.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TXT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Market Position
Textron benefits from a dominant presence in the private jet manufacturing market, particularly with its Cessna Citation jets. Increased demand for private air travel following the COVID-19 pandemic has created a supply-demand imbalance that supports pricing power and potential production increases.
Operational Stability and Margin Improvement
Textron's methodical approach to production and backlog management ensures operational stability. As production volumes rise and supply chain pressures ease, margin improvement is anticipated.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Value
The company's strong share repurchase programs and other astute capital allocation strategies are seen as enhancing shareholder value. This disciplined approach is expected to provide a solid return on investment for shareholders.
Growth Catalysts
Potential catalysts include pent-up demand and industry factors supporting normalized production levels. The FAA certification of the GE Aerospace Catalyst engine for the Beechcraft Denali program is expected to boost revenue significantly.
Financial Performance
In fiscal year 2025, Textron reported revenue of $14.80 billion, an increase of 8.01% from the previous year, with earnings rising by 11.77%. This strong financial performance underscores the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TXT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$93.09
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$69.46
+34.0% from the low
52-Week High
$101.57
-8.3% from the high
1 Month
+5.14%
3 Month
-2.46%
YTD
+6.9%
1 Year
+34.0%
3Y CAGR
+12.3%
5Y CAGR
+6.7%
10Y CAGR
+9.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TXT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.4x
vs 20.0x median
-28% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +4.9% median
+2% above peer median
Net Margin
6.1%
vs 7.7% median
-20% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TXT TXT Textron Inc. | $16.2B | 14.4x | +5.0% | 6.1% | Hold | +11.5% |
GD GD General Dynamics Corporation | $93.9B | 21.1x | +6.1% | 8.1% | Buy | +17.7% |
LHX LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $56.4B | 26.1x | +4.6% | 7.7% | Buy | +16.6% |
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $12.6B | 18.4x | +4.9% | 4.7% | Hold | +31.4% |
NOC NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | $79.4B | 20.0x | +3.4% | 10.8% | Buy | +30.9% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $118.5B | 17.2x | +5.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +23.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TXT Dividend and Capital Return
TXT returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (6.6% buyback yield), with a modest 0.11% dividend — combining for 6.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.6%
Dividend Yield
0.11%
Payout Ratio
2.1%
How TXT Splits Its Return
Buyback 6.6%
Dividend 0.11%Buybacks 6.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.11
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
174M
At 6.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% |
| 2023 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| 2022 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsTXT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Textron Inc. (TXT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Textron Inc. (TXT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $104, implying +11.5% from the current price of $93. The bear case scenario is $83 and the bull case is $163.
02What is the TXT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TXT is $104 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $110 (+18.2% from today), and the low-end target is $92 (-1.2%). The base case model target is $126.
03Is Textron Inc. (TXT) stock overvalued in 2026?
TXT trades at 14.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Textron Inc. (TXT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TXT in 2026 are: (1) Customer Concentration — Approximately 27% of Textron's revenue comes from the US government. (2) Market Cyclicality — The business jet market, served by Textron Aviation (Cessna and Beechcraft), is cyclical. (3) Macroeconomic Sensitivity — Textron's performance is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical events and industrial manufacturing activity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Textron Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TXT will report consensus revenue of $15.9B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.18 (+16.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.9B in revenue.
06When does Textron Inc. (TXT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TXT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Textron Inc. generate?
Textron Inc. (TXT) generated $707M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.7%. TXT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).