Upside case
Bull case
$543+267.0%
EMR would need investors to value it at roughly 84x earnings — about 61x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
21 bullish · 3 bearish · 41 covering EMR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
17
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$162
+9.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$291 – $543
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $83.2B
EMR price targets
Three scenarios for where EMR stock could go
Current
~$148
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $148
Bear
$291
Base
$249
Bull
$543
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$249+68.6%
At 38x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$291+97.0%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push EMR down roughly 97% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Emerson Electric Co.
EMR · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySeptember year-end
Emerson Electric is a diversified industrial technology company that provides automation solutions and climate technologies for industrial, commercial, and residential markets. It generates revenue primarily through its Automation Solutions segment (~60% of sales) — which sells process control systems, software, and instrumentation — and its Commercial & Residential Solutions segment (~40%) — which makes HVAC components, thermostats, and controls. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep domain expertise across critical industrial processes and its installed base of proprietary control systems that create high switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$83.2B
Revenue TTM
$18.3B
Net Income TTM
$2.4B
Net Margin
13.3%
EMR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.52/$1.51
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.62/$1.62
Revenue
$4.9B/$4.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.46/$1.42
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.54/$1.53
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.52/$1.51 | +0.7% | $4.6B/$4.6B | -1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.62/$1.62 | +0.0% | $4.9B/$4.9B | -0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.46/$1.42 | +2.8% | $4.3B/$4.3B | -0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.54/$1.53 | +0.7% | $4.6B/$4.6B | -0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.0B
+3.8% YoY
FY2
$20.0B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.07
+39.8% YoY
FY2
$6.81
+12.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.1B
FCF Margin: 17.0%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.55
Expected Revenue
$4.6B
EMR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EMR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $18.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Intelligent Devices
68.5%
+2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
50.9%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Intelligent Devices is the largest disclosed segment at 68.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.0% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 50.9%, up 4.7% YoY.
EMR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $125 — implies -9.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EMR
36.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+45% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
EMR
36.6x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+42% premium
vs EMR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.6x
vs
5Y Average
26.2x
+40% premium
Forward PE
22.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+19%
Industrials
20.8x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+45%
Industrials
25.9x
+42%
5Y Avg
26.2x
+40%
PEG Ratio
8.11x
S&P 500
1.75x
+364%
Industrials
1.59x
+411%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+24%
Industrials
13.9x
+36%
5Y Avg
17.3x
+9%
Price/FCF
31.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+46%
Industrials
20.6x
+51%
5Y Avg
21.6x
+44%
Price/Sales
4.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+47%
Industrials
1.6x
+190%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+22%
Dividend Yield
1.42%
S&P 500
1.88%
-24%
Industrials
1.24%
+15%
5Y Avg
2.12%
-33%
| Metric | EMR | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg EMR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.8x | 19.1x+19% | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.6x | 25.2x+45% | 25.9x+42% | 26.2x+40% |
| PEG Ratio | 8.11x | 1.75x+364% | 1.59x+411% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.9x | 15.3x+24% | 13.9x+36% | 17.3x |
| Price/FCF | 31.2x | 21.3x+46% | 20.6x+51% | 21.6x+44% |
| Price/Sales | 4.6x | 3.1x+47% | 1.6x+190% | 3.8x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.42% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.12% |
EMR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEMR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EMR generates $3.1B in free cash flow at a 17.0% margin — returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.9× FCF
~3.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.10
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
52.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
562M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEMR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt and Financing
Emerson Electric carries a high level of debt, which could limit future financial flexibility if market conditions tighten. The company’s leverage increases the risk of higher interest costs and potential liquidity constraints.
High Risk
Global Operations Disruption
A significant portion of Emerson’s manufacturing facilities are located outside the United States, exposing the company to geopolitical conflicts, political unrest, natural disasters, and public health concerns. Disruptions can cause shipment delays and customer loss, especially since over a third of sales originate from emerging markets.
Medium
Acquisition Integration Risk
Emerson’s recent acquisitions of AspenTech and NI carry significant execution risks, including potential delays and impacts on earnings acceleration. Integration challenges could affect operational efficiency and the expected synergies from these deals.
Medium
Capital Deployment Aggressiveness
Emerson’s aggressive capital allocation—including large‑scale M&A and shareholder returns—could strain future flexibility if macro conditions worsen. Over‑deployment of capital may limit the company’s ability to invest in growth or weather downturns.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
Emerson is exposed to risks related to securing its digital assets and protecting against cyberattacks. A successful breach could disrupt operations, damage reputation, and result in regulatory penalties.
Lower
Oil and Gas Exposure
Emerson’s exposure to the oil and gas sector subjects it to price fluctuations that can impact revenue and profitability. Volatility in commodity prices may increase project‑based revenue volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EMR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Shift to Automation & Software
Emerson has divested non‑core businesses to focus on industrial automation and software solutions. The company projects a significant increase in recurring software revenue as part of this transformation.
Recurring Software Revenue Expansion
Software subscriptions are expected to grow, with the annual contract value reaching $1.6 billion and up 9% year‑over‑year. This shift provides more predictable and stable income, enhancing profitability.
Robust Order Backlog & Momentum
Emerson’s backlog stands at $7.9 billion, up 9% YoY, giving visibility into future revenue streams. Strong order growth in automation and power generation underpins this momentum.
Digital Automation & AI Demand
Global demand for digital automation and AI solutions is accelerating, positioning Emerson to capture a growing tailwind as industries modernize.
Margin Expansion via Operational Excellence
The company is improving margins through operational efficiency and integration of acquisitions such as AspenTech, aiming to boost profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EMR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$147.92
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$106.53
+38.9% from the low
52-Week High
$165.15
-10.4% from the high
1 Month
+11.50%
3 Month
-6.01%
YTD
+8.9%
1 Year
+37.9%
3Y CAGR
+20.8%
5Y CAGR
+9.6%
10Y CAGR
+10.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EMR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.8x
vs 29.9x median
-24% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.8%
vs +6.1% median
-38% below peer median
Net Margin
13.3%
vs 14.0% median
-5% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $83.2B | 22.8x | +3.8% | 13.3% | Buy | +9.5% |
HON HON Honeywell International Inc. | $137.4B | 20.6x | +6.1% | 11.2% | Buy | +12.5% |
ROK ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $51.6B | 37.8x | +1.5% | 12.4% | Hold | -5.0% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $163.5B | 31.7x | +9.1% | 14.0% | Buy | -9.9% |
AME AME AMETEK, Inc. | $55.3B | 29.9x | +6.6% | 20.1% | Buy | +1.9% |
PNR PNR Pentair plc | $12.9B | 14.9x | +2.4% | 16.0% | Hold | +42.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EMR Dividend and Capital Return
EMR returns 2.9% annually — 1.42% through dividends and 1.5% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
1.42%
Payout Ratio
52.0%
How EMR Splits Its Return
Div 1.42%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 1.42%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.10
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
53Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.2%
5Y Div CAGR
1.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
562M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.14 | +1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $2.10 | +0.8% | 1.0% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $2.08 | +1.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| 2022 | $2.06 | +1.7% | 1.2% | 4.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsEMR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $162, implying +9.5% from the current price of $148. The bear case scenario is $291 and the bull case is $543.
02What is the EMR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EMR is $162 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+25.1% from today), and the low-end target is $125 (-15.5%). The base case model target is $249.
03Is Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) stock overvalued in 2026?
EMR trades at 22.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EMR in 2026 are: (1) Debt and Financing — Emerson Electric carries a high level of debt, which could limit future financial flexibility if market conditions tighten. (2) Global Operations Disruption — A significant portion of Emerson’s manufacturing facilities are located outside the United States, exposing the company to geopolitical conflicts, political unrest, natural disasters, and public health concerns. (3) Acquisition Integration Risk — Emerson’s recent acquisitions of AspenTech and NI carry significant execution risks, including potential delays and impacts on earnings acceleration. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Emerson Electric Co.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EMR will report consensus revenue of $19.0B (+3.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.07 (+39.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.0B in revenue.
06When does Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) report its next earnings?
Emerson Electric Co. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $4.6B. Over recent quarters, EMR has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Emerson Electric Co. generate?
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) generated $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.0%. EMR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).