Upside case
Bull case
$326+56.0%
HON would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 28 covering HON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$244
+16.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$161 – $326
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $132.5B
HON price targets
Three scenarios for where HON stock could go
Current
~$209
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $209
Bear
$161
Base
$276
Bull
$326
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$276+32.1%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$161-22.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push HON down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Honeywell International Inc.
HON · NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesDecember year-end
Honeywell International is a diversified industrial technology company that develops and manufactures aerospace systems, building automation technologies, and performance materials. It generates revenue through four main segments: Aerospace (~35% of sales), Building Technologies (~25%), Performance Materials & Technologies (~25%), and Safety & Productivity Solutions (~15%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise, long-term customer relationships in regulated industries like aerospace, and its ability to integrate hardware with proprietary software across its portfolio.
Market Cap
$132.5B
Revenue TTM
$36.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.1B
Net Margin
11.2%
HON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.75/$2.66
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.82/$2.44
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.59/$2.54
Revenue
$9.8B/$10.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.45/$2.32
Revenue
$9.1B/$9.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.75/$2.66 | +3.4% | $10.4B/$10.1B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.82/$2.44 | +15.6% | $10.4B/$10.2B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.59/$2.54 | +2.0% | $9.8B/$10.0B | -2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.45/$2.32 | +5.6% | $9.1B/$9.3B | -1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$39.0B
+6.1% YoY
FY2
$41.1B
+5.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.04
+40.7% YoY
FY2
$9.73
+7.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.2B
FCF Margin: 11.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HON beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $37.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aerospace
46.8%
+13.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
58.2%
-0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aerospace is the largest disclosed segment at 46.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.3% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 58.2%, down 0.2% YoY.
HON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $281 — implies +32.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
32.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HON
28.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+13% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
HON
28.4x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
+11% premium
vs HON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.4x
vs
5Y Average
26.6x
+7% premium
Forward PE
19.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+4%
Industrials
20.7x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+13%
Industrials
25.7x
+11%
5Y Avg
26.6x
+7%
PEG Ratio
15.47x
S&P 500
1.72x
+802%
Industrials
1.64x
+842%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+28%
Industrials
13.7x
+42%
5Y Avg
20.7x
-6%
Price/FCF
24.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+16%
Industrials
21.2x
+16%
5Y Avg
29.3x
-16%
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+13%
Industrials
1.6x
+123%
5Y Avg
4.0x
-13%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
S&P 500
1.87%
+19%
Industrials
1.27%
+75%
5Y Avg
2.01%
+10%
| Metric | HON | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg HON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.9x | 19.1x | 20.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.4x | 25.1x+13% | 25.7x+11% | 26.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 15.47x | 1.72x+802% | 1.64x+842% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.4x | 15.2x+28% | 13.7x+42% | 20.7x |
| Price/FCF | 24.6x | 21.1x+16% | 21.2x+16% | 29.3x-16% |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+13% | 1.6x+123% | 4.0x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 2.01% |
HON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHON Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HON generates $4.2B in free cash flow at a 11.4% margin — 12.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$36.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.42
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$12.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$22.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.3× FCF
~5.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.1%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
2.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.63
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
62.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
634M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory
New or revised legal and regulatory requirements could impose operational restrictions, increase compliance burdens, and negatively impact Honeywell’s business, capital expenditures, financial condition, and competitive standing. Global climate‑change regulations and shifts in customer demand also pose operational and financial risks.
High Risk
Finance & Corporate
The planned separation of Automation and Aerospace businesses and the spin‑off of Advanced Materials could alter Honeywell’s risk profile, size, and diversification. Changes in pension plan returns, discount rates, and other factors may adversely affect results, cash flow, and could require future cash contributions.
Medium
Debt
Honeywell’s net debt was approximately $20 billion as of December 2024. While the net debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio indicates moderate leverage and strong interest coverage, the company’s ability to manage debt obligations remains a key financial risk.
Medium
Macro & Political
Market volatility, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical risks—including trade and tax law changes, supply‑chain disruptions, capital‑market volatility, inflation, and regional conflicts—could affect Honeywell’s international sales and operations. Foreign‑exchange fluctuations add further exposure.
Lower
Production
Production risk, representing 24% of Honeywell’s overall risks, encompasses potential disruptions in manufacturing, supply‑chain constraints, and capacity limitations that could impact product availability and delivery schedules.
Lower
Profitability Challenges
Honeywell has experienced declining segment margins, particularly in aerospace due to seasonally lower volumes. These margin pressures could erode overall profitability if not addressed.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Asset Separations Unlock Value
Honeywell is realigning its portfolio with a spin‑off of its Advanced Materials business and an anticipated 2026 separation of its Aerospace unit. These moves are expected to unlock trapped value by allowing each standalone business to trade at higher multiples and enabling more focused leadership and capital allocation.
Aerospace & Defense Growth Momentum
The company holds leading positions in aerospace, industrial automation, building systems, and energy solutions. Recent developments include a multi‑year agreement with the U.S. Department of War to expand defense technology production and a new AI‑powered video and access‑control collaboration, reinforcing the aerospace segment’s strong aftermarket revenue and deep moats.
Quantum Computing Upside via Quantinuum
Honeywell has a significant stake in Quantinuum, a quantum computing firm. The anticipated 2027 IPO of Quantinuum could provide substantial upside for Honeywell shareholders as quantum computing is viewed as a next‑generation technology.
Robust Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Honeywell demonstrates strong cash flow generation and a robust balance sheet, with a 6.4% year‑over‑year increase in quarterly revenue and strong organic order growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$209.06
52W Range Position
36%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$186.76
+11.9% from the low
52-Week High
$248.18
-15.8% from the high
1 Month
-8.39%
3 Month
-10.60%
YTD
+6.7%
1 Year
-2.4%
3Y CAGR
+1.8%
5Y CAGR
-1.6%
10Y CAGR
+6.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.9x
vs 22.6x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.1%
vs +4.2% median
+44% above peer median
Net Margin
11.2%
vs 14.0% median
-20% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HON HON Honeywell International Inc. | $132.5B | 19.9x | +6.1% | 11.2% | Buy | +16.6% |
MMM MMM 3M Company | $74.5B | 16.4x | -2.1% | 11.1% | Hold | +16.8% |
GE GE GE Aerospace | $299.5B | 37.9x | +7.4% | 17.9% | Buy | +34.7% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $159.4B | 30.9x | +10.3% | 14.0% | Buy | -7.6% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $77.8B | 21.3x | +4.2% | 13.3% | Buy | +17.0% |
ITW ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $73.4B | 22.6x | +1.8% | 19.3% | Hold | +7.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HON Dividend and Capital Return
HON returns 5.1% annually — 2.21% through dividends and 2.9% through buybacks.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
5.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.9%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
Payout Ratio
62.9%
How HON Splits Its Return
Div 2.21%
Buyback 2.9%
Dividend 2.21%Buybacks 2.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.63
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
5.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
18M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
634M
At 2.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.52 | +9.6% | 3.0% | 5.4% |
| 2024 | $4.12 | +4.8% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $3.93 | +5.0% | 2.7% | 4.7% |
| 2022 | $3.74 | +5.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsHON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Honeywell International Inc. (HON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $244, implying +16.6% from the current price of $209. The bear case scenario is $161 and the bull case is $326.
02What is the HON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HON is $244 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $273 (+30.6% from today), and the low-end target is $195 (-6.7%). The base case model target is $276.
03Is Honeywell International Inc. (HON) stock overvalued in 2026?
HON trades at 19.9x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Honeywell International Inc. (HON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HON in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory — New or revised legal and regulatory requirements could impose operational restrictions, increase compliance burdens, and negatively impact Honeywell’s business, capital expenditures, financial condition, and competitive standing. (2) Finance & Corporate — The planned separation of Automation and Aerospace businesses and the spin‑off of Advanced Materials could alter Honeywell’s risk profile, size, and diversification. (3) Debt — Honeywell’s net debt was approximately $20 billion as of December 2024. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Honeywell International Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HON will report consensus revenue of $39.0B (+6.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.04 (+40.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $41.1B in revenue.
06When does Honeywell International Inc. (HON) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HON is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Honeywell International Inc. generate?
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) generated $4.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.4%. HON returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($3.8B TTM).