Upside case
Bull case
$1224+166.5%
ROK would need investors to value it at roughly 101x earnings — about 63x more generous than today's 38x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
39
analysts
12 bullish · 3 bearish · 39 covering ROK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
24
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$437
-5.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$442 – $1224
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
37.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $51.6B
ROK price targets
Three scenarios for where ROK stock could go
Current
~$459
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $459
Bear
$442
Base
$678
Bull
$1224
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$678+47.6%
At 56x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$442-3.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push ROK down roughly 4% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rockwell Automation, Inc.
ROK · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySeptember year-end
Rockwell Automation is a leading provider of industrial automation and digital transformation solutions for manufacturing and industrial operations. It generates revenue through three main segments: Intelligent Devices (~45% of sales) for hardware components, Software & Control (~30%) for control systems and digital twin software, and Lifecycle Services (~25%) for consulting and maintenance services. The company's moat lies in its deep integration of hardware and software—its FactoryTalk platform creates sticky ecosystems that lock in customers through proprietary control systems and extensive industrial domain expertise.
Market Cap
$51.6B
Revenue TTM
$8.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
12.4%
ROK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.82/$2.67
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.34/$2.94
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.75/$2.47
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.30/$2.88
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.82/$2.67 | +5.6% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.34/$2.94 | +13.6% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.75/$2.47 | +11.3% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.30/$2.88 | +14.6% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.9B
+1.5% YoY
FY2
$9.3B
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.95
+13.4% YoY
FY2
$11.32
+3.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 15.2%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.89
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
ROK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ROK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Intelligent Devices Segment
45.0%
-1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
40.0%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Intelligent Devices Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 45.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.3% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 40.0%, up 4.3% YoY.
ROK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $303 — implies -25.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
25.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ROK
59.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+137% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ROK
59.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+132% premium
vs ROK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
59.9x
vs
5Y Average
30.9x
+94% premium
Forward PE
37.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+99%
Industrials
20.8x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
59.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+137%
Industrials
25.9x
+132%
5Y Avg
30.9x
+94%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+106%
Industrials
13.9x
+126%
5Y Avg
24.9x
+26%
Price/FCF
38.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+78%
Industrials
20.6x
+84%
5Y Avg
34.3x
+11%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+98%
Industrials
1.6x
+289%
5Y Avg
4.1x
+53%
Dividend Yield
1.14%
S&P 500
1.88%
-39%
Industrials
1.24%
-8%
5Y Avg
1.70%
-33%
| Metric | ROK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ROK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 37.8x | 19.1x+99% | 20.8x+82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 59.9x | 25.2x+137% | 25.9x+132% | 30.9x+94% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.4x | 15.3x+106% | 13.9x+126% | 24.9x+26% |
| Price/FCF | 38.0x | 21.3x+78% | 20.6x+84% | 34.3x+11% |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+98% | 1.6x+289% | 4.1x+53% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.14% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.70% |
ROK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolROK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ROK generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 15.2% margin — 15.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.66
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$468M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.4× FCF
~2.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$425M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.23
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
68.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
112M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageROK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Financial & Valuation Concerns
Rockwell’s return on invested capital (ROIC) has been trending downward, indicating that current returns may not fully cover the cost of capital. The stock trades at a premium valuation relative to historical norms and peers, and discounted‑cash‑flow models suggest it may be overvalued, increasing the risk of significant price corrections.
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Political Environment
Global economic downturns, political instability, and shifting trade policies can dampen sales and profitability. Geopolitical tensions that drive oil price volatility and inflation expectations add further pressure on industrial automation firms like Rockwell.
High Risk
Competitive Landscape
The industrial automation market is intensely competitive, with rivals employing aggressive pricing and rapid technology rollouts. Continuous innovation is required to maintain market share, and any lag could erode Rockwell’s competitive position.
Medium
Innovation & Cybersecurity Risks
Dependence on cutting‑edge technology exposes Rockwell to cyber‑attack threats, especially as AI‑enabled automation expands. Failure to secure digital assets could disrupt operations and damage customer trust.
Medium
Supply Chain & Operations Disruptions
Natural disasters, pandemics, and geopolitical events can interrupt supply chains, affecting manufacturing, product quality, and delivery timelines. Rising commodity prices and inventory management challenges add further operational risk.
Medium
Demand & Customer Preference Shifts
If Rockwell cannot anticipate or respond to evolving customer demands for hardware, software, and services, it risks declining product demand. Rapid shifts in industry preferences could erode revenue streams.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ROK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Smart Manufacturing Adoption Surge
Rockwell Automation leads in hardware, software, and services that optimize manufacturing. The company is positioned to benefit from the growing adoption of smart manufacturing, AI‑enabled automation, and digital transformation across industries. Its robust product portfolio includes programmable logic controllers (PLCs) and human‑machine interfaces (HMIs).
Reshoring Drives Automation Demand
The trend of reshoring manufacturing to the U.S. is expected to boost demand for automation solutions as companies seek higher productivity and address labor shortages. Rockwell’s pure‑play automation model uniquely positions it to capture this upside. The company’s focus on factory productivity aligns with reshoring initiatives.
AI & Robotics Integration with Nvidia
Rockwell is collaborating with Nvidia to embed advanced AI and robotics into its solutions, enhancing manufacturing efficiency and enabling autonomous operations. This partnership expands the company’s product capabilities and positions it at the forefront of industrial AI. The integration is expected to accelerate adoption of Rockwell’s automation platforms.
Guided Earnings Growth & Margin Expansion
Despite recent revenue declines in specific segments, Rockwell has raised its non‑GAAP EPS guidance. Analysts anticipate future earnings growth and an increase in segment margins driven by cost‑reduction and margin‑expansion initiatives. Projections indicate strong earnings and sales growth in the coming fiscal years.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ROK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$459.35
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$250.32
+83.5% from the low
52-Week High
$463.49
-0.9% from the high
1 Month
+25.10%
3 Month
+10.68%
YTD
+15.3%
1 Year
+81.5%
3Y CAGR
+17.8%
5Y CAGR
+11.3%
10Y CAGR
+15.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ROK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
37.8x
vs 20.6x median
+84% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.5%
vs +6.1% median
-75% below peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 12.3% median
+0% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROK ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $51.6B | 37.8x | +1.5% | 12.4% | Hold | -5.0% |
HON HON Honeywell International Inc. | $137.4B | 20.6x | +6.1% | 11.2% | Buy | +12.5% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $83.2B | 22.8x | +3.8% | 13.3% | Buy | +9.5% |
ITR ITRI Itron, Inc. | $3.7B | 13.8x | +1.8% | 12.3% | Hold | +65.1% |
PTC PTC PTC Inc. | $16.3B | 17.8x | +7.9% | 41.6% | Buy | +42.4% |
NND NNDM Nano Dimension Ltd. | $400M | 190.0x | +27.4% | -326.4% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ROK Dividend and Capital Return
ROK returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.14% dividend, raised 20 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
1.14%
Payout Ratio
68.0%
How ROK Splits Its Return
Div 1.14%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 1.14%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.23
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$425M
Estimated Shares Retired
925.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
112M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.76 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.31 | +4.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $5.06 | +5.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $4.79 | +5.5% | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $4.54 | +4.8% | 1.2% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsROK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $437, implying -5.0% from the current price of $459. The bear case scenario is $442 and the bull case is $1224.
02What is the ROK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ROK is $437 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $470 (+2.3% from today), and the low-end target is $391 (-14.9%). The base case model target is $678.
03Is Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) stock overvalued in 2026?
ROK trades at 37.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ROK in 2026 are: (1) Financial & Valuation Concerns — Rockwell’s return on invested capital (ROIC) has been trending downward, indicating that current returns may not fully cover the cost of capital. (2) Macroeconomic & Political Environment — Global economic downturns, political instability, and shifting trade policies can dampen sales and profitability. (3) Competitive Landscape — The industrial automation market is intensely competitive, with rivals employing aggressive pricing and rapid technology rollouts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ROK will report consensus revenue of $8.9B (+1.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.95 (+13.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.3B in revenue.
06When does Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) report its next earnings?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.89 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, ROK has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rockwell Automation, Inc. generate?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.2%. ROK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($425M TTM).