Upside case
Bull case
$717+51.4%
ROK would need investors to value it at roughly 55x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 37x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
39
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 39 covering ROK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
25
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$475
+0.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$343 – $717
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
36.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $53.2B
ROK price targets
Three scenarios for where ROK stock could go
Current
~$474
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $474
Bear
$343
Base
$545
Bull
$717
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$545+14.9%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$343-27.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push ROK down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rockwell Automation, Inc.
ROK · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySeptember year-end
Rockwell Automation is a leading provider of industrial automation and digital transformation solutions for manufacturing and industrial operations. It generates revenue through three main segments: Intelligent Devices (~45% of sales) for hardware components, Software & Control (~30%) for control systems and digital twin software, and Lifecycle Services (~25%) for consulting and maintenance services. The company's moat lies in its deep integration of hardware and software—its FactoryTalk platform creates sticky ecosystems that lock in customers through proprietary control systems and extensive industrial domain expertise.
Market Cap
$53.2B
Revenue TTM
$8.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
12.4%
ROK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.82/$2.67
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.34/$2.94
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.75/$2.47
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.30/$2.88
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.82/$2.67 | +5.6% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.34/$2.94 | +13.6% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.75/$2.47 | +11.3% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.30/$2.88 | +14.6% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.9B
+1.5% YoY
FY2
$9.3B
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.21
+16.0% YoY
FY2
$12.10
+8.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 15.2%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.37
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
ROK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ROK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Intelligent Devices Segment
45.0%
-1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
40.0%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Intelligent Devices Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 45.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.3% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 40.0%, up 4.3% YoY.
ROK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $313 — implies -33.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ROK
61.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+153% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ROK
61.8x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+142% premium
vs ROK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
61.8x
vs
5Y Average
30.9x
+100% premium
Forward PE
36.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+95%
Industrials
21.2x
+73%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
61.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+153%
Industrials
25.6x
+142%
5Y Avg
30.9x
+100%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
32.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+112%
Industrials
13.9x
+132%
5Y Avg
24.9x
+29%
Price/FCF
39.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+89%
Industrials
20.0x
+96%
5Y Avg
34.3x
+14%
Price/Sales
6.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+106%
Industrials
1.6x
+308%
5Y Avg
4.1x
+57%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
S&P 500
1.91%
-42%
Industrials
1.21%
-9%
5Y Avg
1.70%
-35%
| Metric | ROK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ROK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 36.6x | 18.8x+95% | 21.2x+73% | — |
| Trailing PE | 61.8x | 24.4x+153% | 25.6x+142% | 30.9x+100% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.3x | 15.2x+112% | 13.9x+132% | 24.9x+29% |
| Price/FCF | 39.2x | 20.7x+89% | 20.0x+96% | 34.3x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 6.4x | 3.1x+106% | 1.6x+308% | 4.1x+57% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.10% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.70% |
ROK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolROK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ROK generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 15.2% margin — 15.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.66
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$468M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.4× FCF
~2.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$425M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.23
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
68.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
112M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageROK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Market Competition
Rockwell Automation faces intense competition in the automation industry, which could pressure margins and market share.
Medium
Economic Slowdown
Potential economic downturns may reduce capital expenditures in industrial automation, impacting Rockwell's growth.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Global supply chain issues could delay product deliveries and increase costs, affecting profitability.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
High valuation multiples may lead to de-rating if growth expectations are not met.
Lower
Regulatory Risks
Changes in industrial regulations could impose additional compliance costs on Rockwell Automation.
High Risk
Technology Disruption
Rapid technological advancements by competitors could render Rockwell's products obsolete.
Medium
Currency Fluctuations
Exchange rate volatility may impact international revenue and earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ROK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong financial performance
Rockwell Automation reported higher sales and net income in Q2 2026, with improved profitability due to pricing actions and cost initiatives.
AI-driven industrial automation
Rockwell Automation is benefiting from robust recurring software demand driven by AI-enabled factory projects in automotive, semiconductor, and warehousing sectors.
Positive earnings guidance
Management provided strong fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of US$11.20 to US$12.20, reinforcing confidence in future growth.
Wide moat business
Rockwell Automation is recognized as a company with a wide moat, indicating sustainable competitive advantages in its industry.
Industrial automation exposure
Rockwell serves as a key player in industrial automation and digital transformation, offering investors exposure to this growing market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ROK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$473.79
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$305.44
+55.1% from the low
52-Week High
$475.92
-0.4% from the high
1 Month
+8.58%
3 Month
+33.42%
YTD
+18.9%
1 Year
+47.2%
3Y CAGR
+14.5%
5Y CAGR
+11.8%
10Y CAGR
+14.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ROK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
36.6x
vs 21.8x median
+68% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.5%
vs +5.7% median
-73% below peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 12.3% median
+0% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROK ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $53.2B | 36.6x | +1.5% | 12.4% | Hold | +0.3% |
HON HON Honeywell International Inc. | $145.1B | 21.8x | +5.7% | 11.2% | Buy | +9.0% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $84.4B | 23.2x | +3.4% | 13.3% | Buy | +7.7% |
ITR ITRI Itron, Inc. | $3.6B | 13.5x | +4.4% | 12.3% | Hold | +69.3% |
PTC PTC PTC Inc. | $13.7B | 14.3x | +9.9% | 41.6% | Buy | +60.4% |
NND NNDM Nano Dimension Ltd. | $282M | 135.0x | +9.0% | -286.8% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ROK Dividend and Capital Return
ROK returns 1.9% total yield, led by a 1.10% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
Payout Ratio
68.0%
How ROK Splits Its Return
Div 1.10%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 1.10%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.23
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$425M
Estimated Shares Retired
897.0K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
112M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.31 | +4.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $5.06 | +5.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $4.79 | +5.5% | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $4.54 | +4.8% | 1.2% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsROK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $475, implying +0.3% from the current price of $474. The bear case scenario is $343 and the bull case is $717.
02What is the ROK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ROK is $475 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $525 (+10.8% from today), and the low-end target is $410 (-13.5%). The base case model target is $545.
03Is Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) stock overvalued in 2026?
ROK trades at 36.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ROK in 2026 are: (1) Market Competition — Rockwell Automation faces intense competition in the automation industry, which could pressure margins and market share. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Global supply chain issues could delay product deliveries and increase costs, affecting profitability. (3) Technology Disruption — Rapid technological advancements by competitors could render Rockwell's products obsolete. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ROK will report consensus revenue of $8.9B (+1.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.21 (+16.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.3B in revenue.
06When does Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) report its next earnings?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $3.37 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, ROK has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rockwell Automation, Inc. generate?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.2%. ROK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($425M TTM).