Greif, Inc. (GEF) Cash Flow Statement

The wide dispersion in the OCF to net income ratio suggests that quarterly net income is heavily influenced by non-cash or timing items rather than steady operating earnings. The negative operating cash flow alongside positive net income in 2025Q1 and 2026Q4 may indicate that working capital absorption or one-time gains are inflating or distorting headline profit. Investors should monitor whether operating cash flow stabilizes relative to net income, as persistent divergence would warrant a normalized earnings model before relying on reported EPS.

The extreme negative free cash flow in 2025Q4 appears driven by a large working capital outflow combined with negative operating cash flow, which may signal a one-time timing effect rather than a structural break. Recent positive quarters at 4.0% to 6.0% margins suggest underlying cash generation is modest but recovering. Investors should watch whether free cash flow margins settle into a consistent positive band as working capital normalizes.

Maintenance-level spending appears to absorb most of the D&A base of roughly $57M to $67M per quarter, though the data does not separate maintenance from growth capital. The spike in CapEx intensity to 23.8% of revenue in 2025Q4 is an outlier that warrants investigation rather than assumed interpretation. Investors should monitor whether CapEx remains below depreciation over time, which would suggest the asset base is being run down.

The magnitude of these swings relative to net income suggests that working capital management, rather than core profitability, is controlling reported cash flow in many periods. Large inflows following large outflows may reflect timing reversals rather than sustained efficiency gains. Investors should track the cash conversion cycle over several quarters to distinguish genuine improvement from temporary reversals.

The steady dividend outflow appears to be funded in part from balance sheet resources during quarters where free cash flow turned negative, such as 2025Q1 and 2026Q3. Buybacks and acquisition spending are episodic, with the $672.7M outflow in 2025Q4 and the $460.9M acquisition inflow in 2026Q1 suggesting large portfolio transactions that complicate return-on-investment assessment. Investors should monitor whether dividend coverage by free cash flow improves over the next several quarters.