Upside case
Bull case
$88+26.9%
GPN would need investors to value it at roughly 6x earnings — about 1x more generous than today's 5x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
62
analysts
36 bullish · 4 bearish · 62 covering GPN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
22
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$88
+27.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $88
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
5.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.5B
GPN price targets
Three scenarios for where GPN stock could go
Current
~$70
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $70
Bear
$27
Base
$127
Bull
$88
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$127+82.1%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-61.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push GPN down roughly 61% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Global Payments Inc.
GPN · NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesDecember year-end
Global Payments is a payment technology company that processes card, electronic, and digital payments for merchants and financial institutions worldwide. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees through its Merchant Solutions segment — which handles payment processing for businesses — and its Issuer Solutions segment that serves banks and card issuers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated software and payments platform that serves both merchants and financial institutions, creating a comprehensive ecosystem.
Market Cap
$16.5B
Revenue TTM
$8.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
16.9%
GPN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.10/$3.05
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.26/$3.23
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.18/$3.16
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.96/$2.82
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.10/$3.05 | +1.6% | $2.0B/$2.4B | -17.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.26/$3.23 | +0.9% | $2.0B/$2.4B | -16.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.18/$3.16 | +0.6% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.96/$2.82 | +5.0% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.5B
+26.9% YoY
FY2
$9.7B
-7.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.71
+83.6% YoY
FY2
$10.62
-0.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
FCF Margin: 24.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GPN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GPN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $10.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Merchant Solutions Segment
75.6%
+7.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America Segment
80.3%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Merchant Solutions Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 75.6% of FY 2024 revenue, up 7.5% YoY.
North America Segment is the largest reported region at 80.3%, up 3.2% YoY.
GPN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $107 — implies +48.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
48.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GPN
11.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
53% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
GPN
11.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
54% discount
vs GPN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.9x
vs
5Y Average
26.6x
55% discount
Forward PE
5.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-73%
Industrials
20.8x
-76%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-53%
Industrials
25.9x
-54%
5Y Avg
26.6x
-55%
PEG Ratio
0.49x
S&P 500
1.74x
-72%
Industrials
1.64x
-70%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-32%
Industrials
13.7x
-24%
5Y Avg
11.4x
-9%
Price/FCF
8.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-62%
Industrials
21.0x
-61%
5Y Avg
14.8x
-46%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-32%
Industrials
1.6x
+33%
5Y Avg
3.3x
-35%
Dividend Yield
1.43%
S&P 500
1.87%
-24%
Industrials
1.25%
+15%
5Y Avg
0.92%
+55%
| Metric | GPN | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg GPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 5.1x | 19.1x-73% | 20.8x-76% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.9x | 25.2x-53% | 25.9x-54% | 26.6x-55% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.49x | 1.74x-72% | 1.64x-70% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.4x | 15.2x-32% | 13.7x-24% | 11.4x |
| Price/FCF | 8.1x | 21.3x-62% | 21.0x-61% | 14.8x-46% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-32% | 1.6x+33% | 3.3x-35% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.43% | 1.87% | 1.25% | 0.92% |
GPN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGPN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
GPN generates $2.0B in free cash flow at a 24.6% margin — returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-7.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
69.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.6× FCF
~6.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.99
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
240M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGPN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
A recessionary economic environment can lead to increased merchant bankruptcies, reduced consumer spending, and lower transaction volumes, directly impacting GPN's revenues and profitability.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
As a processor of sensitive data, GPN is a target for cyber threats. Data breaches or system disruptions could lead to reputational damage, financial losses, and regulatory penalties.
High Risk
Increased Debt Levels
Significant acquisitions, like Worldpay, have increased GPN's debt levels, leading to higher interest expenses and potential pressure on earnings and free cash flow.
Medium
Intense Competition
The payments and software market is highly competitive, with GPN facing pressure from large players, non-traditional competitors, and niche fintech companies. This can lead to pressure on fees and increased customer acquisition costs.
Medium
Technological Disruption
Emerging payment technologies, such as mobile ecosystems and blockchain, could reduce GPN's transaction volumes if the company doesn't adapt quickly enough.
Medium
Changes in Laws and Regulations
New or revised legislation and regulations affecting the electronic money transfer industry or card network rules could make it more difficult for customers to initiate transactions or could adversely affect GPN's revenues.
Lower
Merchant Attrition
Increased attrition of merchants, referral partners, or independent sales organizations can negatively impact revenue.
Lower
Loss of Key Personnel
The departure of key personnel could negatively impact the company.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GPN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Transformation
The acquisition of Worldpay and divestiture of Issuer Solutions positions GPN as a focused merchant solutions provider with significant exposure to attractive segments like integrated payments, software, and e-commerce, which are expected to constitute roughly two-thirds of its revenue.
Attractive Valuation
The stock's current trading multiple is considered cheap, offering a potential margin of safety for investors. This deep discount is seen as an attractive entry point, especially if the company can successfully integrate Worldpay and realize expected synergies.
Synergy Potential
GPN anticipates realizing significant cost synergies from the Worldpay integration, with a target of $600 million. Successful synergy realization is crucial for future upside.
Financial Performance
The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with recent earnings per share (EPS) exceeding analyst expectations. GPN has also set a fiscal year 2026 guidance of 13.800-14.000 EPS, indicating confidence in future growth.
Growth in Digital Payments
GPN is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing trend towards digital payments and an increasingly digitalized payment landscape.
Share Buybacks
Management is actively engaged in share buyback programs, signaling confidence in the company's value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GPN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$69.61
52W Range Position
25%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$62.45
+11.5% from the low
52-Week High
$90.64
-23.2% from the high
1 Month
+7.03%
3 Month
-4.45%
YTD
-7.8%
1 Year
-12.2%
3Y CAGR
-12.7%
5Y CAGR
-19.1%
10Y CAGR
-0.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GPN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
5.1x
vs 7.3x median
-31% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+26.9%
vs +12.9% median
+109% above peer median
Net Margin
16.9%
vs 7.0% median
+143% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GPN GPN Global Payments Inc. | $16.5B | 5.1x | +26.9% | 16.9% | Buy | +27.0% |
FIS FIS Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $23.8B | 7.3x | +14.7% | 3.5% | Buy | +46.6% |
FIS FISV Fiserv, Inc. | $30.0B | 6.9x | -1.3% | 15.2% | Buy | +33.0% |
WEX WEX WEX Inc. | $5.0B | 7.4x | +4.6% | 11.5% | Hold | +23.4% |
PAY PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | $1.7B | 19.6x | +12.9% | 7.0% | Buy | +54.3% |
EVT EVTC EVERTEC, Inc. | $1.8B | 7.2x | +44.4% | 2.2% | Buy | +31.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GPN Dividend and Capital Return
GPN returns 1.4% total yield, led by a 1.43% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.43%
Payout Ratio
17.0%
How GPN Splits Its Return
Div 1.43%
Dividend 1.43%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.99
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
240M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% |
| 2023 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% |
| 2022 | $1.00 | +12.4% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsGPN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Global Payments Inc. (GPN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $88, implying +27.0% from the current price of $70. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $88.
02What is the GPN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GPN is $88 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $109 (+56.6% from today), and the low-end target is $76 (+9.2%). The base case model target is $127.
03Is Global Payments Inc. (GPN) stock overvalued in 2026?
GPN trades at 5.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Global Payments Inc. (GPN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GPN in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — A recessionary economic environment can lead to increased merchant bankruptcies, reduced consumer spending, and lower transaction volumes, directly impacting GPN's revenues and profitability. (2) Cybersecurity Threats — As a processor of sensitive data, GPN is a target for cyber threats. (3) Increased Debt Levels — Significant acquisitions, like Worldpay, have increased GPN's debt levels, leading to higher interest expenses and potential pressure on earnings and free cash flow. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Global Payments Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GPN will report consensus revenue of $10.5B (+26.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.71 (+83.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.7B in revenue.
06When does Global Payments Inc. (GPN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GPN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Global Payments Inc. generate?
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.6%. GPN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).