Upside case
Bull case
$120+79.3%
GPN would need investors to value it at roughly 9x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 5x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
62
analysts
36 bullish · 4 bearish · 62 covering GPN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
22
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$88
+30.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$57 – $120
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
4.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.8B
GPN price targets
Three scenarios for where GPN stock could go
Current
~$67
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $67
Bear
$57
Base
$91
Bull
$120
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$91+36.1%
At 7x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$57-14.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push GPN down roughly 14% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Global Payments Inc.
GPN · NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesDecember year-end
Global Payments is a payment technology company that processes card, electronic, and digital payments for merchants and financial institutions worldwide. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees through its Merchant Solutions segment — which handles payment processing for businesses — and its Issuer Solutions segment that serves banks and card issuers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated software and payments platform that serves both merchants and financial institutions, creating a comprehensive ecosystem.
Market Cap
$15.8B
Revenue TTM
$8.8B
Net Income TTM
-$706M
Net Margin
-8.0%
GPN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.10/$3.05
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.26/$3.23
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.18/$3.16
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.96/$2.78
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.10/$3.05 | +1.6% | $2.0B/$2.4B | -17.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.26/$3.23 | +0.9% | $2.0B/$2.4B | -16.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.18/$3.16 | +0.6% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.96/$2.78 | +6.5% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.5B
+19.3% YoY
FY2
$12.6B
+19.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.04
+339.7% YoY
FY2
$7.84
+11.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 12.0%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.50
Expected Revenue
$3.2B
GPN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GPN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Merchant Solutions Segment
100.0%
+0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Merchant Solutions Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Merchant Solutions Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.2% YoY.
Merchant Solutions Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
GPN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $74 — implies +10.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
10.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GPN
11.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
53% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
GPN
11.5x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
55% discount
vs GPN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.5x
vs
5Y Average
26.6x
57% discount
Forward PE
4.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-74%
Industrials
21.2x
-77%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-53%
Industrials
25.6x
-55%
5Y Avg
26.6x
-57%
PEG Ratio
0.47x
S&P 500
1.66x
-72%
Industrials
1.65x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-33%
Industrials
13.9x
-27%
5Y Avg
11.4x
-11%
Price/FCF
7.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-62%
Industrials
20.0x
-61%
5Y Avg
14.8x
-48%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-34%
Industrials
1.6x
+31%
5Y Avg
3.3x
-37%
Dividend Yield
1.48%
S&P 500
1.91%
-22%
Industrials
1.21%
+22%
5Y Avg
0.92%
+61%
| Metric | GPN | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg GPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 4.8x | 18.8x-74% | 21.2x-77% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.5x | 24.4x-53% | 25.6x-55% | 26.6x-57% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.47x | 1.66x-72% | 1.65x-72% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1x | 15.2x-33% | 13.9x-27% | 11.4x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 7.8x | 20.7x-62% | 20.0x-61% | 14.8x-48% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-34% | 1.6x+31% | 3.3x-37% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.92% |
GPN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGPN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
GPN generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 12.0% margin — returns 9.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-8.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.94
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
12.7× FCF
~12.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-3.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.3%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
7.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.99
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
237M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGPN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Debt Maturity Risk
GPN has significant debt maturities starting in 2027, which could strain liquidity and refinancing conditions.
High Risk
Revenue Growth Concerns
Mixed Q1 2026 earnings and conservative full-year revenue outlook indicate potential growth challenges.
Medium
Interest Rate Exposure
Interest rate swap agreements suggest sensitivity to rate fluctuations despite hedging efforts.
Medium
Structural Shift Risks
The global payments landscape is undergoing profound changes, potentially disrupting GPN's business model.
Lower
Integration Risks
The $24 billion Worldpay acquisition and divestiture of legacy assets may create operational complexities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GPN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Consistent revenue and EPS growth
The company has demonstrated consistent revenue and EPS growth, indicating strong financial performance.
Strong cash flow generation
Global Payments Inc. has shown strong cash flow, which supports its financial stability and growth potential.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses from analysts highlight the company's positive outlook and investment potential.
Specialty business services focus
Operating in the Specialty Business Services sector provides a niche advantage and growth opportunities.
Wall Street debate and research
Comprehensive investment memos and research reports provide detailed analysis and price targets, supporting the bull case.
Smart-money flows
Positive smart-money flows indicate institutional confidence in the company's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GPN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$66.88
52W Range Position
19%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$61.16
+9.4% from the low
52-Week High
$90.64
-26.2% from the high
1 Month
-2.61%
3 Month
-3.96%
YTD
-11.5%
1 Year
-12.2%
3Y CAGR
-12.8%
5Y CAGR
-18.9%
10Y CAGR
-1.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GPN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
4.8x
vs 6.6x median
-26% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+19.3%
vs +11.1% median
+73% above peer median
Net Margin
-8.0%
vs 13.9% median
-157% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GPN GPN Global Payments Inc. | $15.8B | 4.8x | +19.3% | -8.0% | Buy | +30.8% |
FIS FIS Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $19.7B | 6.1x | +12.2% | 22.9% | Buy | +64.6% |
FIS FISV Fiserv, Inc. | $25.6B | 5.9x | +3.8% | 15.2% | Buy | +48.7% |
WEX WEX WEX Inc. | $4.4B | 6.6x | +6.9% | 11.5% | Hold | +37.3% |
PAY PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | $2.4B | 26.4x | +15.0% | 6.8% | Buy | +13.2% |
EVT EVTC EVERTEC, Inc. | $1.6B | 6.6x | +11.1% | 13.9% | Buy | +14.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GPN Dividend and Capital Return
GPN returns capital mainly through $1.2B/year in buybacks (7.8% buyback yield), with a modest 1.48% dividend — combining for 9.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.8%
Dividend Yield
1.48%
Payout Ratio
17.0%
How GPN Splits Its Return
Div 1.48%
Buyback 7.8%
Dividend 1.48%Buybacks 7.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.99
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
18M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
237M
At 7.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% |
| 2023 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% |
| 2022 | $1.00 | +12.4% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsGPN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Global Payments Inc. (GPN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $88, implying +30.8% from the current price of $67. The bear case scenario is $57 and the bull case is $120.
02What is the GPN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GPN is $88 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $111 (+66.0% from today), and the low-end target is $76 (+13.6%). The base case model target is $91.
03Is Global Payments Inc. (GPN) stock overvalued in 2026?
GPN trades at 4.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Global Payments Inc. (GPN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GPN in 2026 are: (1) Debt Maturity Risk — GPN has significant debt maturities starting in 2027, which could strain liquidity and refinancing conditions. (2) Revenue Growth Concerns — Mixed Q1 2026 earnings and conservative full-year revenue outlook indicate potential growth challenges. (3) Interest Rate Exposure — Interest rate swap agreements suggest sensitivity to rate fluctuations despite hedging efforts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Global Payments Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GPN will report consensus revenue of $10.5B (+19.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.04 (+339.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.6B in revenue.
06When does Global Payments Inc. (GPN) report its next earnings?
Global Payments Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $3.50 and revenue of $3.2B. Over recent quarters, GPN has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Global Payments Inc. generate?
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.0%. GPN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).