Upside case
Bull case
$44-66.7%
The bull case prices GWRE at 12x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering GWRE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
7
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$245
+87.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $44
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
37.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.1B
GWRE price targets
Three scenarios for where GWRE stock could go
Current
~$131
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $131
Base
$131
Bull
$44
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$131+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing GWRE — at roughly 37x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Guidewire Software, Inc.
GWRE · NYSETechnologySoftware - ApplicationJuly year-end
Guidewire Software is a provider of core software systems for property and casualty insurers worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through software licenses, cloud subscriptions, and implementation services — with its InsuranceSuite platform being the main offering. The company's moat comes from deep industry-specific expertise, high switching costs for insurers, and a comprehensive product ecosystem that creates vendor lock-in.
Market Cap
$11.1B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$189M
Net Margin
14.1%
GWRE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+37.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.88/$0.46
Revenue
$294M/$286M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.84/$0.64
Revenue
$357M/$338M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.66/$0.61
Revenue
$333M/$317M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.17/$0.77
Revenue
$359M/$343M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.88/$0.46 | +90.3% | $294M/$286M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.84/$0.64 | +32.3% | $357M/$338M | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.66/$0.61 | +7.5% | $333M/$317M | +5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.17/$0.77 | +51.4% | $359M/$343M | +4.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.5B
+14.9% YoY
FY2
$1.8B
+17.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.73
+24.4% YoY
FY2
$3.04
+11.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$310M
FCF Margin: 23.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GWRE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GWRE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription
55.5%
+39.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
43.4%
+23.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription is the largest disclosed segment at 55.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 39.8% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 43.4%, up 23.2% YoY.
GWRE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $128 — implies -9.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GWRE
161.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+541% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
GWRE
161.8x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+489% premium
vs GWRE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
161.8x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
37.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+96%
Technology
21.7x
+72%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
161.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+541%
Technology
27.5x
+489%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
171.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+1022%
Technology
17.4x
+886%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
37.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+76%
Technology
19.8x
+90%
5Y Avg
84.0x
-55%
Price/Sales
9.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+194%
Technology
2.4x
+282%
5Y Avg
11.5x
-20%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | GWRE | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg GWRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 37.3x | 19.1x+96% | 21.7x+72% | — |
| Trailing PE | 161.8x | 25.2x+541% | 27.5x+489% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 171.2x | 15.3x+1022% | 17.4x+886% | — |
| Price/FCF | 37.5x | 21.3x+76% | 19.8x+90% | 84.0x-55% |
| Price/Sales | 9.2x | 3.1x+194% | 2.4x+282% | 11.5x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
GWRE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGWRE Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
GWRE generates $310M in free cash flow at a 23.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
63.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.19
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$310M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$699M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$17M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (2.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
86M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageGWRE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Dependence on P&C Industry
Guidewire operates within the Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance industry, making it vulnerable to downturns or significant shifts in this sector. Any adverse changes could directly impact GWRE's business and financial performance.
High Risk
AI Disruption
Advancements in AI, particularly autonomous AI agents, pose a risk of disrupting traditional enterprise software platforms. This could reduce the demand for GWRE's solutions as companies may opt for direct integrations that bypass intermediaries.
High Risk
Long Sales and Implementation Cycles
GWRE's business model involves long sales and implementation cycles for its software solutions, leading to potential revenue recognition delays. This can complicate financial forecasting and impact cash flow.
Medium
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of GWRE's revenue may come from a small number of top customers. The loss of any key clients could substantially harm the company's financial health.
Medium
Competition
The insurance software market is highly competitive, with GWRE facing pressure from established players and emerging InsurTech companies. This competition could impact market share and pricing power.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
As a software provider, GWRE is exposed to cybersecurity threats. A significant security breach or cyber-attack could disrupt operations, damage reputation, and lead to financial losses.
Lower
Economic Downturns
General economic downturns can affect the spending power of insurance companies, impacting their investment in new software and services. This could lead to reduced demand for GWRE's offerings.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses suggest that GWRE may be overvalued, indicated by a 'Value Score of F' from Zacks. This could deter value investors and affect stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GWRE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Profitability Improvement
The company has shown a significant shift from losses to profitability, with earnings growth averaging 30.5% per year over the last five years. This improvement is attributed to underwriting discipline and a focus on optimizing its risk profile by shedding unprofitable businesses.
Reorganization Completion
GBLI is nearing the end of a successful reorganization, which involves exiting certain unprofitable business lines and optimizing its risk exposure. This has led to improved margins despite a historical decline in revenue, which was a deliberate strategy to boost profitability.
Niche Market Strategy
GBLI focuses on niche segments within the property and casualty insurance market, such as collectibles and vacant properties, which are often overlooked by larger insurers. This specialization allows them to effectively price and underwrite these unique risks.
Undervalued Stock
GBLI is considered undervalued by some analysts, trading below its book value per share. As of September 2025, it traded at approximately 60 cents on the dollar of its book value, indicating potential for price appreciation.
Dividend Yield
The company offers an attractive dividend yield, around 4.79% to 5.04%, making it appealing for income-focused investors. This yield is supported by the company's strategic repositioning and improving financial performance.
Share Buybacks
GBLI has completed a significant share repurchase program, buying back over 1.3 million shares, which represents nearly 9.5% of the company. This signals management confidence and can provide leverage for equity gains.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GWRE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$131.09
52W Range Position
10%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$115.57
+13.4% from the low
52-Week High
$272.60
-51.9% from the high
1 Month
-11.32%
3 Month
+2.26%
YTD
-30.1%
1 Year
-37.9%
3Y CAGR
+19.0%
5Y CAGR
+6.0%
10Y CAGR
+9.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GWRE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
37.3x
vs 19.3x median
+94% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.9%
vs +14.0% median
+7% above peer median
Net Margin
14.1%
vs 12.6% median
+12% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GWR GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | $11.1B | 37.3x | +14.9% | 14.1% | Buy | +87.0% |
SPN SPNS Sapiens International Corporation N.V. | $2.4B | 27.9x | +7.0% | 11.4% | Hold | -12.5% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $92.3B | 21.4x | +18.0% | 12.6% | Buy | +70.2% |
VEE VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. | $27.2B | 18.9x | +14.0% | 28.4% | Buy | +67.4% |
PCT PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $5.5B | 13.2x | +12.5% | 14.2% | Buy | +63.9% |
NCN NCNO nCino, Inc. | $2.1B | 19.3x | +14.1% | -3.7% | Buy | +85.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsGWRE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $245, implying +87.0% from the current price of $131.
02What is the GWRE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GWRE is $245 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+128.9% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (+33.5%). The base case model target is $131.
03Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) stock overvalued in 2026?
GWRE trades at 37.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GWRE in 2026 are: (1) Dependence on P&C Industry — Guidewire operates within the Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance industry, making it vulnerable to downturns or significant shifts in this sector. (2) AI Disruption — Advancements in AI, particularly autonomous AI agents, pose a risk of disrupting traditional enterprise software platforms. (3) Long Sales and Implementation Cycles — GWRE's business model involves long sales and implementation cycles for its software solutions, leading to potential revenue recognition delays. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Guidewire Software, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GWRE will report consensus revenue of $1.5B (+14.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.73 (+24.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.8B in revenue.
06When does Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GWRE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Guidewire Software, Inc. generate?
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) generated $310M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.1%. GWRE returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).