Upside case
Bull case
$788+165.9%
HEI would need investors to value it at roughly 140x earnings — about 88x more generous than today's 53x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
HEICO Corporation (HEI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
22 bullish · 0 bearish · 34 covering HEI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$371
+25.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$466 – $788
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
52.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.0B
HEI price targets
Three scenarios for where HEI stock could go
Current
~$296
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $296
Bear
$466
Base
$570
Bull
$788
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$570+92.3%
At 102x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$466+57.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HEI down roughly 57% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HEICO Corporation
HEI · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseOctober year-end
HEICO Corporation is a specialized aerospace and defense company that designs, manufactures, and sells replacement parts and services for commercial and military aircraft. It generates revenue through two main segments: the Flight Support Group (approximately 60% of sales) selling aftermarket jet engine and aircraft components, and the Electronic Technologies Group (around 40%) producing specialized electronic and electro-optical equipment for aerospace and defense applications. The company's key advantage is its FAA-approved alternative parts program—which allows it to sell certified replacement components at significantly lower prices than original equipment manufacturers—creating a durable cost advantage in the highly regulated aviation aftermarket.
Market Cap
$25.0B
Revenue TTM
$4.6B
Net Income TTM
$713M
Net Margin
15.4%
HEI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.12/$1.03
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.13
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.33/$1.22
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.28
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.12/$1.03 | +8.7% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +3.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.26/$1.13 | +11.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.33/$1.22 | +9.0% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.35/$1.28 | +5.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.3B
+14.4% YoY
FY2
$6.2B
+16.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.63
+51.0% YoY
FY2
$9.42
+23.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$841M
FCF Margin: 18.1%
Next Earnings
May 26, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.33
Expected Revenue
$1.2B
HEI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HEI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Flight Support Group
69.5%
+18.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
61.9%
+14.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Flight Support Group is the largest disclosed segment at 69.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 18.1% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 61.9%, up 14.7% YoY.
HEI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $259 — implies -3.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
3.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HEI
60.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+140% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
HEI
60.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+134% premium
vs HEI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
60.5x
vs
5Y Average
62.6x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
52.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+177%
Industrials
20.8x
+154%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
60.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+140%
Industrials
25.9x
+134%
5Y Avg
62.6x
-3%
PEG Ratio
3.68x
S&P 500
1.75x
+111%
Industrials
1.59x
+132%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+45%
Industrials
13.9x
+60%
5Y Avg
36.9x
-40%
Price/FCF
29.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+36%
Industrials
20.6x
+40%
5Y Avg
52.3x
-45%
Price/Sales
5.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+78%
Industrials
1.6x
+250%
5Y Avg
9.4x
-40%
Dividend Yield
0.08%
S&P 500
1.88%
-96%
Industrials
1.24%
-94%
5Y Avg
0.10%
-25%
| Metric | HEI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg HEI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 52.8x | 19.1x+177% | 20.8x+154% | — |
| Trailing PE | 60.5x | 25.2x+140% | 25.9x+134% | 62.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.68x | 1.75x+111% | 1.59x+132% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.2x | 15.3x+45% | 13.9x+60% | 36.9x-40% |
| Price/FCF | 29.0x | 21.3x+36% | 20.6x+40% | 52.3x-45% |
| Price/Sales | 5.6x | 3.1x+78% | 1.6x+250% | 9.4x-40% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.08% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.10% |
HEI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHEI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HEI generates $841M in free cash flow at a 18.1% margin — 12.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+16.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.05
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$841M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$218M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.4× FCF
~2.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$22M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.23
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
4.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
84M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHEI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risks
HEI is often considered overvalued, with P/E ratios significantly above industry averages, such as 57.9x and 68.83x. This premium valuation creates substantial downside risk if earnings fail to meet expectations, as indicated by a high PEG ratio of 3.56.
High Risk
Production Risks
Production risks account for 30% of identified risks, primarily concerning manufacturing costs and product specifications. Increases in these costs could significantly reduce profit margins.
High Risk
Dependence on Aviation Industry
HEI's performance is heavily reliant on the aviation industry, which is susceptible to fluctuations in demand for commercial air travel and changes in airline fleet strategies. A downturn in defense or space budgets could further impact sales.
High Risk
Cash Flow and Leverage
Concerns about declining free cash flow margins and rising long-term debt, exacerbated by acquisition financing, raise significant questions about HEI's financial leverage and overall earnings quality.
Medium
Market Volatility
With a beta slightly above 1 (e.g., 1.08), HEI's stock price is more volatile than the overall market. This increased volatility can lead to greater fluctuations in stock performance, impacting investor sentiment.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
HEI is vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and pandemics. Such disruptions can affect timely delivery and increase operational costs.
Medium
Competition
Operating in a highly competitive industry, HEI faces pressure from both established players and new entrants. This competitive landscape can impact market share and pricing power.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
Potential cybersecurity events or disruptions to IT systems pose a risk to HEI's operations. Such incidents could lead to operational inefficiencies and financial losses.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HEI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Consistent Growth and Financial Performance
HEICO has a history of strong revenue and net income growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for revenue and 17% for net income over the last 13 years. Analysts project a CAGR of 10% for revenue and 13% for net income in the next three years.
Acquisition Strategy
HEICO's proven strategy of acquiring and integrating companies, particularly in the fragmented aerospace and defense sectors, is a key driver of its growth. This inorganic growth strategy is seen as a significant advantage, especially as industry valuations soften.
Market Position and Industry Tailwinds
HEICO is a leading supplier of aircraft aftermarket parts and MRO (Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul) services. The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural supply-demand imbalances in the aviation industry, with a projected shortfall in global aircraft production expected to persist into the early 2030s.
Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating on HEI stock. The average 12-month price target from analysts suggests a potential upside of 35.96% to 36.78% from recent price levels.
Resilience and Diversification
HEICO's diversified revenue mix and exposure to defense and PMA parts offer resilience against commercial aerospace headwinds. Proprietary components provide pricing power, and recurring replacement cycles reduce volatility.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HEI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$296.38
52W Range Position
38%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$256.11
+15.7% from the low
52-Week High
$361.69
-18.1% from the high
1 Month
+7.09%
3 Month
-9.27%
YTD
-10.0%
1 Year
+12.5%
3Y CAGR
+20.6%
5Y CAGR
+16.5%
10Y CAGR
+25.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HEI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
52.8x
vs 33.3x median
+59% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.4%
vs +10.2% median
+41% above peer median
Net Margin
15.4%
vs 12.9% median
+20% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HEI HEI HEICO Corporation | $25.0B | 52.8x | +14.4% | 15.4% | Buy | +25.2% |
TDG TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $69.7B | 31.8x | +12.6% | 21.6% | Buy | +31.1% |
WWD WWD Woodward, Inc. | $22.8B | 42.8x | +8.7% | 12.9% | Buy | +13.3% |
CW CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $27.4B | 49.3x | +11.0% | 13.8% | Buy | -4.6% |
DRS DRS Leonardo DRS, Inc. | $11.1B | 33.3x | +9.7% | 7.8% | Buy | +26.8% |
SPR SPR Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | $4.6B | 31.5x | +10.2% | -40.7% | Hold | +16.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HEI Dividend and Capital Return
HEI returns 0.2% annually — 0.08% through dividends and 0.1% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.08%
Payout Ratio
4.6%
How HEI Splits Its Return
Div 0.08%
Buyback 0.1%
Dividend 0.08%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.23
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.5%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$22M
Estimated Shares Retired
75.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
84M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.12 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.23 | +9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2024 | $0.21 | +5.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2023 | $0.20 | +11.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2022 | $0.18 | +5.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsHEI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HEICO Corporation (HEI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HEICO Corporation (HEI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $371, implying +25.2% from the current price of $296. The bear case scenario is $466 and the bull case is $788.
02What is the HEI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HEI is $371 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $391 (+31.9% from today), and the low-end target is $330 (+11.3%). The base case model target is $570.
03Is HEICO Corporation (HEI) stock overvalued in 2026?
HEI trades at 52.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for HEICO Corporation (HEI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HEI in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risks — HEI is often considered overvalued, with P/E ratios significantly above industry averages, such as 57. (2) Production Risks — Production risks account for 30% of identified risks, primarily concerning manufacturing costs and product specifications. (3) Dependence on Aviation Industry — HEI's performance is heavily reliant on the aviation industry, which is susceptible to fluctuations in demand for commercial air travel and changes in airline fleet strategies. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is HEICO Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HEI will report consensus revenue of $5.3B (+14.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.63 (+51.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.2B in revenue.
06When does HEICO Corporation (HEI) report its next earnings?
HEICO Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-26. Consensus expects EPS of $1.33 and revenue of $1.2B. Over recent quarters, HEI has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does HEICO Corporation generate?
HEICO Corporation (HEI) generated $841M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.1%. HEI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($22M TTM).