Upside case
Bull case
$947+27.5%
CW would need investors to value it at roughly 63x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 49x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering CW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$709
-4.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$450 – $947
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
49.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $27.4B
CW price targets
Three scenarios for where CW stock could go
Current
~$743
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $743
Bear
$450
Base
$935
Bull
$947
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$935+25.9%
At 62x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$450-39.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 19x multiple contraction could push CW down roughly 39% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
CW · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Curtiss-Wright is an industrial technology company that designs and manufactures highly engineered components and systems for aerospace, defense, and power generation applications. It generates revenue through three main segments: Aerospace & Industrial (commercial and military aircraft components), Defense Electronics (embedded computing and avionics), and Naval & Power (nuclear propulsion systems and critical naval components). The company's moat lies in its deep engineering expertise, long-term defense contracts, and mission-critical components that require rigorous certification and are difficult to replace.
Market Cap
$27.4B
Revenue TTM
$3.5B
Net Income TTM
$484M
Net Margin
13.8%
CW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.82/$2.38
Revenue
$806M/$767M
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.23/$3.12
Revenue
$877M/$852M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.40/$3.30
Revenue
$869M/$870M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.79/$3.69
Revenue
$947M/$890M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.82/$2.38 | +18.5% | $806M/$767M | +5.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.23/$3.12 | +3.5% | $877M/$852M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.40/$3.30 | +3.0% | $869M/$870M | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.79/$3.69 | +2.7% | $947M/$890M | +6.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.7B
+11.0% YoY
FY2
$4.1B
+10.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.28
+16.0% YoY
FY2
$16.21
+13.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$554M
FCF Margin: 15.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.32
Expected Revenue
$864M
CW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Naval Defense
26.9%
+14.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
77.2%
+11.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Naval Defense is the largest disclosed segment at 26.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 77.2%, up 11.4% YoY.
CW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $513 — implies -28.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
28.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CW
57.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+129% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CW
57.7x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+123% premium
vs CW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
57.7x
vs
5Y Average
28.7x
+101% premium
Forward PE
49.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+159%
Industrials
20.8x
+137%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
57.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+129%
Industrials
25.9x
+123%
5Y Avg
28.7x
+101%
PEG Ratio
2.65x
S&P 500
1.75x
+52%
Industrials
1.59x
+67%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
44.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+191%
Industrials
13.9x
+220%
5Y Avg
20.0x
+122%
Price/FCF
49.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+132%
Industrials
20.6x
+140%
5Y Avg
25.7x
+93%
Price/Sales
7.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+150%
Industrials
1.6x
+393%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+117%
Dividend Yield
0.12%
S&P 500
1.88%
-93%
Industrials
1.24%
-90%
5Y Avg
0.34%
-64%
| Metric | CW | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 49.3x | 19.1x+159% | 20.8x+137% | — |
| Trailing PE | 57.7x | 25.2x+129% | 25.9x+123% | 28.7x+101% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.65x | 1.75x+52% | 1.59x+67% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.4x | 15.3x+191% | 13.9x+220% | 20.0x+122% |
| Price/FCF | 49.5x | 21.3x+132% | 20.6x+140% | 25.7x+93% |
| Price/Sales | 7.8x | 3.1x+150% | 1.6x+393% | 3.6x+117% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.12% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.34% |
CW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCW Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CW generates $554M in free cash flow at a 15.8% margin — 14.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.03
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$554M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$371M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$943M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$465M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
37M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Curtiss‑Wright’s current trading price appears to exceed its calculated fair value, with a P/E ratio that is significantly higher than the company’s historical median. This overvaluation risk could compress earnings multiples if the market corrects the price.
Medium
Contract Concentration & Budget Shifts
Revenue visibility is exposed to contract concentration and potential changes in defense and nuclear budgets. A shift in these budgets could reduce order volumes and impact the company’s top‑line growth.
Medium
Industrial Cyclicality & Macro Headwinds
Industrial cyclicality, tariff exposure, and manufacturing softness pose risks to future earnings. These macro headwinds could dampen demand for defense and aerospace components, tightening margins.
Medium
Mean Reversion Risk
The company faces a risk of multiple mean reversion amid a changing global security landscape. If security spending cycles reverse, the company’s earnings trajectory could normalize downward.
Lower
Insider Selling
Key executives have engaged in notable open‑market selling of shares. This insider selling may signal negative sentiment and could influence investor perception of the stock’s prospects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Consistent EPS Growth & Margin Expansion
Curtiss‑Wright’s trailing‑12‑month EPS reached $12.94 by FY 2025, with analysts projecting ~9.45% annual earnings growth. Consensus forecasts show operating margins improving from 13.8% to 14.7% over the next three years, driven by higher‑value content and margin expansion.
Aggressive Share Buyback Program
Management raised its full‑year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance and launched an accelerated share‑repurchase plan. The company repurchased $290 million of stock in Q3 2025 and aims to exceed $450 million in buybacks for the year, boosting shareholder ownership and EPS.
Strong Backlog & Demand
A backlog of $3.9 billion, up 14% year‑to‑date, signals robust future revenue streams from major infrastructure and military programs.
Positive Momentum & Earnings Surprises
Shares have risen over 5% in recent weeks, and analysts have revised FY 2026 earnings estimates higher. The firm has a track record of positive earnings surprises, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Strategic Position in Defense & Power
Curtiss‑Wright’s products serve aerospace, defense, general industrial, and power‑generation markets, positioning it to benefit from ongoing modernization and nuclear‑power investment trends.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$742.62
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$352.03
+111.0% from the low
52-Week High
$749.00
-0.9% from the high
1 Month
+6.22%
3 Month
+14.37%
YTD
+29.7%
1 Year
+104.4%
3Y CAGR
+66.0%
5Y CAGR
+41.7%
10Y CAGR
+25.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
49.3x
vs 52.8x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.0%
vs +9.7% median
+13% above peer median
Net Margin
13.8%
vs 7.7% median
+80% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CW CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $27.4B | 49.3x | +11.0% | 13.8% | Buy | -4.6% |
KTO KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $11.5B | 79.3x | +19.2% | 2.1% | Buy | +79.7% |
HEI HEI HEICO Corporation | $25.0B | 52.8x | +14.4% | 15.4% | Buy | +25.2% |
DRS DRS Leonardo DRS, Inc. | $11.1B | 33.3x | +9.7% | 7.8% | Buy | +26.8% |
MRC MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | $5.5B | 95.6x | +3.3% | -1.5% | Buy | +1.1% |
LHX LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $56.4B | 26.1x | +4.6% | 7.7% | Buy | +16.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CW Dividend and Capital Return
CW returns capital mainly through $465M/year in buybacks (1.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.12% dividend — combining for 1.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
0.12%
Payout Ratio
7.2%
How CW Splits Its Return
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 0.12%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$465M
Estimated Shares Retired
626.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
37M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.93 | +12.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $0.83 | +5.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $0.79 | +5.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | $0.75 | +5.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $709, implying -4.6% from the current price of $743. The bear case scenario is $450 and the bull case is $947.
02What is the CW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CW is $709 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $760 (+2.3% from today), and the low-end target is $603 (-18.8%). The base case model target is $935.
03Is Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) stock overvalued in 2026?
CW trades at 49.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CW in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Concerns — Curtiss‑Wright’s current trading price appears to exceed its calculated fair value, with a P/E ratio that is significantly higher than the company’s historical median. (2) Contract Concentration & Budget Shifts — Revenue visibility is exposed to contract concentration and potential changes in defense and nuclear budgets. (3) Industrial Cyclicality & Macro Headwinds — Industrial cyclicality, tariff exposure, and manufacturing softness pose risks to future earnings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Curtiss-Wright Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CW will report consensus revenue of $3.7B (+11.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.28 (+16.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.1B in revenue.
06When does Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) report its next earnings?
Curtiss-Wright Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $3.32 and revenue of $864M. Over recent quarters, CW has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Curtiss-Wright Corporation generate?
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) generated $554M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.8%. CW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($465M TTM).