Upside case
Bull case
$303+105.7%
HLI would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 15 covering HLI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$200
+35.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$119 – $303
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
HLI price targets
Three scenarios for where HLI stock could go
Current
~$147
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $147
Bear
$119
Base
$220
Bull
$303
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$220+49.2%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$119-19.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push HLI down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
HLI · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsMarch year-end
Houlihan Lokey is a global investment bank specializing in middle-market mergers and acquisitions, financial restructuring, and valuation advisory services. It generates revenue primarily from advisory fees across three segments: Corporate Finance (~60% of revenue), Financial Restructuring (~25%), and Financial and Valuation Advisory (~15%). The firm's key competitive advantage is its dominant market position in middle-market M&A and restructuring—particularly its reputation for fairness opinions and creditor advisory work—which creates deep client relationships and repeat business.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Net Income TTM
$448M
HLI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.96/$1.62
Revenue
$666M/$628M
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.14/$1.68
Revenue
$605M/$580M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.84/$1.68
Revenue
$659M/$652M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.94/$1.85
Revenue
$717M/$697M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.96/$1.62 | +21.0% | $666M/$628M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.14/$1.68 | +27.4% | $605M/$580M | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.84/$1.68 | +9.5% | $659M/$652M | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.94/$1.85 | +4.9% | $717M/$697M | +2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.9B
+22.6% YoY
FY2
$3.6B
+23.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.21
+10.1% YoY
FY2
$8.68
+20.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$739M
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.79
Expected Revenue
$679M
HLI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HLI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Corporate Finance
63.9%
+37.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.2%
+26.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Corporate Finance is the largest disclosed segment at 63.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 37.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.2%, up 26.6% YoY.
HLI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $137 — implies -10.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HLI
25.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
HLI
25.3x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+89% premium
vs HLI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.3x
vs
5Y Average
22.1x
+14% premium
Forward PE
19.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+0%
Financial Services
10.5x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+0%
Financial Services
13.4x
+89%
5Y Avg
22.1x
+14%
PEG Ratio
1.61x
S&P 500
1.75x
-8%
Financial Services
1.03x
+57%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+18%
Financial Services
11.4x
+57%
5Y Avg
14.4x
+24%
Price/FCF
12.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-40%
Financial Services
10.6x
+19%
5Y Avg
26.5x
-52%
Price/Sales
4.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+37%
Financial Services
2.3x
+91%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+19%
Dividend Yield
1.63%
S&P 500
1.88%
-13%
Financial Services
2.68%
-39%
5Y Avg
1.90%
-14%
| Metric | HLI | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg HLI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.1x | 19.1x | 10.5x+82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.3x | 25.2x | 13.4x+89% | 22.1x+14% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.61x | 1.75x | 1.03x+57% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.9x | 15.3x+18% | 11.4x+57% | 14.4x+24% |
| Price/FCF | 12.7x | 21.3x-40% | 10.6x+19% | 26.5x-52% |
| Price/Sales | 4.3x | 3.1x+37% | 2.3x+91% | 3.6x+19% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.63% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 1.90% |
HLI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHLI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HLI generates 20.1% ROE and 11.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.54
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
20.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$971M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$533M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
20.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$53M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.41
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
41.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
70M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageHLI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
Houlihan Lokey's revenue is closely tied to M&A and capital market activity. A recession or significant market downturn could lead to a sharp decline in deal volumes, directly impacting the company's revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Dependence on Key Personnel
The success of Houlihan Lokey heavily relies on retaining its Managing Directors and senior professionals. The loss of key talent could adversely affect the business and its operational capabilities.
Medium
Revenue Volatility
The company's revenue and profits can be highly volatile on a quarterly basis, leading to fluctuations in its stock price. This volatility can create uncertainty for investors regarding future performance.
Medium
Reputational and Legal Risks
Houlihan Lokey faces reputational and legal risks from potential employee misconduct, conflicts of interest, and cybersecurity breaches. Such issues could lead to significant financial and operational repercussions.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analyses suggest that Houlihan Lokey's stock may be overvalued, trading at a premium to its intrinsic worth. This could indicate potential downside risk, especially if market conditions change.
Lower
Competition
The investment banking industry is highly competitive, with Houlihan Lokey facing pressure from other firms. Increased competition could impact market share and profitability.
Lower
Talent Dislocation
The financial industry faces challenges such as increased regulation and compensation pressures, leading to talent dislocation. This environment can affect the availability and cost of skilled professionals.
Lower
Middle Market Focus
While Houlihan Lokey's focus on the middle market is a strength, it can also result in less visibility into future performance. This may increase the risk profile of its financial stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HLI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance and Growth
Houlihan Lokey has demonstrated significant revenue and earnings growth, with fiscal year 2025 revenue increasing by 24.80% year-over-year to $2.39 billion and earnings rising by 42.60% to $399.71 million. Analysts project continued growth, with EPS expected to grow at an average yearly rate of 16.34% and revenue by 13.02% in the coming years.
Countercyclical Business Model
The company's business model combines corporate finance (cyclical) with financial restructuring (countercyclical), allowing it to perform well in various economic conditions. This diversification provides a 'natural hedge,' enabling HLI to generate revenue even when M&A activity slows down.
Dominance in the Middle Market
Houlihan Lokey is a leading M&A advisor in the United States, particularly in the middle-market segment (transactions under $1 billion), which accounts for a vast majority of global deal activity. This focus positions them to capture significant deal volume.
Strategic Initiatives
The company is investing in technology, including a centralized AI orchestration layer and the monetization of proprietary M&A data, which could drive future growth. Additionally, expansion into Europe through acquisitions strengthens its global presence.
Solid Balance Sheet
Houlihan Lokey maintains a strong balance sheet with substantial cash reserves and minimal debt, providing financial flexibility. This financial strength supports its growth initiatives and positions the company well for future opportunities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HLI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$147.23
52W Range Position
17%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$134.41
+9.5% from the low
52-Week High
$211.78
-30.5% from the high
1 Month
+4.60%
3 Month
-14.88%
YTD
-16.5%
1 Year
-9.6%
3Y CAGR
+19.5%
5Y CAGR
+17.1%
10Y CAGR
+19.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HLI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.1x
vs 17.6x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+22.6%
vs +13.9% median
+62% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HLI HLI Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | $10.3B | 19.1x | +22.6% | — | Buy | +35.8% |
EVR EVR Evercore Inc. | $13.2B | 17.6x | +27.8% | — | Buy | +14.8% |
PJT PJT PJT Partners Inc. | $3.7B | 20.4x | +13.9% | — | Hold | +4.3% |
LAZ LAZ Lazard Ltd | $4.4B | 14.6x | +3.8% | — | Buy | +1.7% |
MC MC Moelis & Company | $4.7B | 20.8x | +24.6% | — | Hold | +15.1% |
PWP PWP Perella Weinberg Partners | $2.0B | 17.5x | -9.2% | — | Buy | +4.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HLI Dividend and Capital Return
HLI returns 2.2% total yield, led by a 1.63% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
1.63%
Payout Ratio
41.3%
How HLI Splits Its Return
Div 1.63%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 1.63%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.41
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.5%
5Y Div CAGR
13.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$53M
Estimated Shares Retired
356.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
70M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.37 | +4.9% | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $2.26 | +3.7% | 0.3% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $2.18 | +7.9% | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| 2022 | $2.02 | +24.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsHLI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $200, implying +35.8% from the current price of $147. The bear case scenario is $119 and the bull case is $303.
02What is the HLI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HLI is $200 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $211 (+43.3% from today), and the low-end target is $193 (+31.1%). The base case model target is $220.
03Is Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) stock overvalued in 2026?
HLI trades at 19.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HLI in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — Houlihan Lokey's revenue is closely tied to M&A and capital market activity. (2) Dependence on Key Personnel — The success of Houlihan Lokey heavily relies on retaining its Managing Directors and senior professionals. (3) Revenue Volatility — The company's revenue and profits can be highly volatile on a quarterly basis, leading to fluctuations in its stock price. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Houlihan Lokey, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HLI will report consensus revenue of $2.9B (+22.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.21 (+10.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.6B in revenue.
06When does Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) report its next earnings?
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.79 and revenue of $679M. Over recent quarters, HLI has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Houlihan Lokey, Inc. generate?
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) generated $739M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. HLI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.6% yield) and share repurchases ($53M TTM).