Upside case
Bull case
$218+182.5%
HOOD would need investors to value it at roughly 115x earnings — about 75x more generous than today's 41x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
18 bullish · 2 bearish · 25 covering HOOD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
5
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$117
+52.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $218
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $69.4B
HOOD price targets
Three scenarios for where HOOD stock could go
Current
~$77
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $77
Base
$56
Bull
$218
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$56-27.7%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
HOOD · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Robinhood is a mobile-first financial services platform that enables commission-free trading of stocks, ETFs, options, and cryptocurrencies. It generates revenue primarily from payment for order flow — earning fees from market makers for routing trades — along with margin lending, subscription services, and interest on customer cash balances. Its key advantage is a user-friendly interface that democratized investing for retail customers, creating strong network effects through its social features and educational content.
Market Cap
$69.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.9B
HOOD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+79.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.42/$0.31
Revenue
$989M/$915M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.61/$0.54
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.63
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.38/$0.39
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.42/$0.31 | +36.9% | $989M/$915M | +8.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.61/$0.54 | +13.4% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.66/$0.63 | +4.6% | $1.3B/$1.4B | -5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.38/$0.39 | -1.4% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -6.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.3B
+18.5% YoY
FY2
$6.7B
+25.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.99
-52.3% YoY
FY2
$1.48
+49.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HOOD beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HOOD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transaction-Based Revenues
88.8%
+59.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Transaction-Based Revenues is the largest disclosed segment at 88.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 59.6% YoY.
HOOD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $46 — implies -38.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
38.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HOOD
37.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+50% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
HOOD
37.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+182% premium
vs HOOD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.6x
vs
5Y Average
39.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
40.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+114%
Financial Services
10.4x
+293%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+50%
Financial Services
13.3x
+182%
5Y Avg
39.5x
-5%
PEG Ratio
0.14x
S&P 500
1.72x
-92%
Financial Services
1.01x
-86%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
36.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+143%
Financial Services
11.4x
+224%
5Y Avg
42.7x
-13%
Price/FCF
42.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+103%
Financial Services
10.6x
+305%
5Y Avg
36.9x
+16%
Price/Sales
15.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+396%
Financial Services
2.2x
+597%
5Y Avg
10.9x
+42%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Financial Services
2.70%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | HOOD | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg HOOD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.9x | 19.1x+114% | 10.4x+293% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.6x | 25.1x+50% | 13.3x+182% | 39.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.14x | 1.72x-92% | 1.01x-86% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.9x | 15.2x+143% | 11.4x+224% | 42.7x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 42.8x | 21.1x+103% | 10.6x+305% | 36.9x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 15.5x | 3.1x+396% | 2.2x+597% | 10.9x+42% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.70% | — |
HOOD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHOOD Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HOOD generates 21.4% ROE and 4.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.07
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
21.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$11.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
21.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$653M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
901M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageHOOD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Legal Risks
Robinhood's reliance on payment for order flow (PFOF) and transaction-based revenue places it under intense regulatory scrutiny. Recent penalties for securities law violations and expanding into crypto and prediction markets increase compliance costs and expose the company to potential regulatory changes that could materially reduce earnings.
Medium
Market Volatility & Economic Conditions
Earnings are closely linked to equity market performance; a downturn can trigger panic selling among Robinhood's predominantly young user base. Interest rate swings also affect the company's net interest revenue, adding further earnings volatility.
Medium
Intense Competition
Established brokerages like ETrade and Fidelity, along with fintech rivals such as Webull and SoFi Invest, are matching Robinhood's product suite, eroding its market share and pressuring margins.
Lower
Operational & Technological Risks
Past cybersecurity incidents and failures to preserve electronic communications have led to regulatory penalties. Expanding into new markets and products adds operational complexity, raising the risk of system outages or compliance lapses.
Lower
Founder & Shareholder Influence
Founders and related entities hold a substantial portion of outstanding shares; large-scale selling by these stakeholders could depress the stock price and create liquidity concerns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HOOD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Expansion
Robinhood’s revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 53% since 2019. In 2025, total net revenues surged 51.58% year‑over‑year to $4.473 billion.
Strong Balance Sheet
The company carries no long‑term debt and holds a cash reserve of approximately $5.46 billion, providing a solid financial cushion for future initiatives.
Innovative Product Suite
Robinhood pioneered 24‑hour trading on select ETFs and U.S. equities and is pursuing a Financial SuperApp strategy. Its Gold subscription offers a high APY on uninvested balances, while expansion into private banking and real estate adds new revenue streams.
Expanding User Base
The platform boasts 25 million funded accounts and $193 billion in assets under custody. Gold subscribers have grown to 4.2 million, reflecting deeper engagement.
First‑Time Profitability
Robinhood turned profitable in 2024 and has continued to show strong earnings growth, outpacing the broader Capital Markets industry.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HOOD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.03
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$45.82
+68.1% from the low
52-Week High
$153.86
-49.9% from the high
1 Month
+10.39%
3 Month
+5.99%
YTD
-33.1%
1 Year
+60.3%
3Y CAGR
+105.7%
5Y CAGR
+17.2%
10Y CAGR
+8.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HOOD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.9x
vs 20.9x median
+95% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+18.5%
vs +6.5% median
+184% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 5.7% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOO HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | $69.4B | 40.9x | +18.5% | — | Buy | +52.1% |
SCH SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation | $164.2B | 15.3x | +2.3% | — | Buy | +28.9% |
IBK IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | $37.4B | 33.7x | +2.9% | — | Buy | +4.5% |
AMT AMTD AMTD IDEA Group | $8M | — | — | — | — | — |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.4B | 14.1x | +10.2% | 5.7% | Buy | +15.6% |
SOF SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $20.4B | 26.5x | +15.3% | — | Hold | +30.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HOOD Dividend and Capital Return
HOOD returns 0.9% annually — null% through dividends and 0.9% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$653M
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
901M
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsHOOD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $117, implying +52.1% from the current price of $77.
02What is the HOOD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HOOD is $117 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $160 (+107.7% from today), and the low-end target is $82 (+6.5%). The base case model target is $56.
03Is Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) stock overvalued in 2026?
HOOD trades at 40.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HOOD in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Legal Risks — Robinhood's reliance on payment for order flow (PFOF) and transaction-based revenue places it under intense regulatory scrutiny. (2) Market Volatility & Economic Conditions — Earnings are closely linked to equity market performance; a downturn can trigger panic selling among Robinhood's predominantly young user base. (3) Intense Competition — Established brokerages like ETrade and Fidelity, along with fintech rivals such as Webull and SoFi Invest, are matching Robinhood's product suite, eroding its market share and pressuring margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HOOD will report consensus revenue of $5.3B (+18.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.99 (-52.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.7B in revenue.
06When does Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HOOD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Robinhood Markets, Inc. generate?
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. HOOD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($653M TTM).