Upside case
Bull case
$32+98.6%
SOFI would need investors to value it at roughly 54x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
27
analysts
9 bullish · 4 bearish · 27 covering SOFI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
14
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$21
+28.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $32
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.8B
SOFI price targets
Three scenarios for where SOFI stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $16
Base
$16
Bull
$32
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$16-3.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SOFI — at roughly 26x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
SoFi is a digital financial services platform that offers lending, banking, and investment products to consumers. It generates revenue primarily from lending (student, personal, and home loans) and its technology platforms — Galileo and Apex — which provide banking infrastructure to other financial institutions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated all-in-one financial app and its Galileo technology platform that serves as a critical backend for many fintech companies.
Market Cap
$20.8B
Net Income TTM
$481M
SOFI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+72.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.06/$0.03
Revenue
$772M/$739M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.06
Revenue
$855M/$804M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.08
Revenue
$962M/$889M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.12
Revenue
$1.0B/$977M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.06/$0.03 | +84.0% | $772M/$739M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.08/$0.06 | +30.3% | $855M/$804M | +6.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.11/$0.08 | +32.0% | $962M/$889M | +8.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.12 | +12.7% | $1.0B/$977M | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.5B
+15.3% YoY
FY2
$7.1B
+30.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.28
-20.9% YoY
FY2
$0.38
+32.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.6B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SOFI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SOFI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Lending Segment
48.1%
+24.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
93.1%
+30.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Lending Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 48.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 24.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 93.1%, up 30.6% YoY.
SOFI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $18 — implies +7.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SOFI
41.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+66% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SOFI
41.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+213% premium
vs SOFI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
41.8x
vs
5Y Average
53.3x
22% discount
Forward PE
27.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+41%
Financial Services
10.5x
+157%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
41.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+66%
Financial Services
13.4x
+213%
5Y Avg
53.3x
-22%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+52%
Financial Services
11.4x
+104%
5Y Avg
39.7x
-41%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+39%
Financial Services
2.3x
+93%
5Y Avg
4.9x
-12%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
0.50%
—
| Metric | SOFI | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SOFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.0x | 19.1x+41% | 10.5x+157% | — |
| Trailing PE | 41.8x | 25.2x+66% | 13.4x+213% | 53.3x-22% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.3x | 15.3x+52% | 11.4x+104% | 39.7x-41% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+39% | 2.3x+93% | 4.9x-12% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.50% |
SOFI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSOFI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SOFI generates 5.9% ROE and 1.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.36
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
5.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$3.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
5.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$65M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSOFI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Credit Risk and Loan Portfolio
SoFi's expanding balance sheet has increased its exposure to consumer credit risk, with personal loan annualized charge-offs rising to 2.80% in Q4 2025. Additionally, credit card net charge-offs reached nearly 11% in Q1 2024, indicating potential spikes in credit costs during periods of elevated charge-offs and delinquencies.
High Risk
Competition and Margin Pressure
SoFi faces significant risks from increasing competition in the fintech market, which could lead to a slowdown in customer acquisition growth and declining margins in its Financial Services and Lending segments. This competitive landscape may pressure profitability and overall growth.
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Risks
SoFi has encountered regulatory scrutiny, including a $1.1 million fine from FINRA due to consumer identification flaws linked to a significant fraud incident. The company is also involved in legal actions, such as suing the U.S. government over student loan repayment pauses, which has resulted in negative publicity and increased scrutiny.
Medium
Economic and Market Volatility
SoFi's stock price is susceptible to fluctuations from various factors, including economic conditions, competitor performance, and overall market sentiment. The stock has shown volatility during market stress, particularly during the 2022 inflation shock, which could impact investor confidence.
Medium
Execution Risk
Maintaining current growth rates is crucial for SoFi to support its valuation multiples. Any deceleration in growth could lead to significant multiple compression, negatively affecting the stock price.
Medium
Loan Platform Business (LPB) Sustainability
Concerns regarding the sustainability of SoFi's Loan Platform Business (LPB) exist, especially if economic conditions worsen, such as a recession or rising interest rates. A decline in the take rate within the LPB business could further exacerbate these challenges.
Lower
Valuation
SoFi's valuation is considered demanding, trading at a premium compared to industry averages. This high valuation implies that even minor disappointments in earnings or slower growth could trigger sharp market reactions.
Lower
Negative Publicity
Negative publicity, whether accurate or not, can adversely affect SoFi's reputation and brand. This could lead to a loss of customer trust and impact future growth prospects.
Lower
Guidance and Investor Expectations
Disappointing guidance or failure to raise full-year guidance, even with strong reported results, can lead to significant stock price declines. Investors may interpret such signals as indications of increasing headwinds.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SOFI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Super App Strategy
SoFi is positioning itself as a financial super app, consolidating various consumer banking needs—lending, everyday banking, investing, and a technology platform—into a single ecosystem. This approach aims to address the fragmented consumer banking landscape and enhance customer engagement.
Record Financial Performance
In Q1 2026, SoFi reported record net revenue of $1.1 billion, reflecting a 41% year-over-year increase, along with a net income of $167 million. This strong financial performance underscores the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.
Member and Product Growth
SoFi added over a million new members in Q4 2025, achieving record quarterly growth and bringing total membership to over 14 million. A significant portion of new products is being adopted by existing members, indicating strong customer loyalty and engagement.
Profitability and Margin Expansion
The company has achieved record adjusted EBITDA and is expanding its EBITDA margins, particularly in its Lending and Financial Services segments. This trend suggests a robust operational model that is becoming increasingly profitable.
Insider Buying
Recent insider activity, including purchases by CEO Anthony Noto, is viewed as a positive signal regarding the company's future prospects. Such actions often indicate confidence in the company's direction and potential for growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SOFI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.30
52W Range Position
19%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.44
+31.0% from the low
52-Week High
$32.73
-50.2% from the high
1 Month
+0.18%
3 Month
-21.86%
YTD
-40.6%
1 Year
+28.0%
3Y CAGR
+43.9%
5Y CAGR
+1.7%
10Y CAGR
+4.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SOFI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.0x
vs 14.5x median
+85% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.3%
vs +24.0% median
-36% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 7.6% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SOF SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $20.8B | 27.0x | +15.3% | — | Hold | +28.2% |
LC LC LendingClub Corporation | $2.0B | 9.8x | +6.8% | — | Buy | +33.4% |
UPS UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | $2.7B | 14.5x | +45.2% | — | Buy | +57.5% |
AFR AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | $21.8B | 60.8x | +24.0% | 7.6% | Buy | +23.2% |
DAV DAVE Dave Inc. | $3.3B | 18.9x | +38.2% | 40.8% | Buy | +25.5% |
OPF OPFI OppFi Inc. | $258M | 5.4x | +12.5% | 4.4% | Buy | -25.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SOFI Dividend and Capital Return
SOFI returns 0.3% annually — null% through dividends and 0.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$65M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
FAQ
7 questionsSOFI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $21, implying +28.2% from the current price of $16.
02What is the SOFI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SOFI is $21 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $28 (+71.8% from today), and the low-end target is $16 (-1.8%). The base case model target is $16.
03Is SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SOFI trades at 27.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SOFI in 2026 are: (1) Credit Risk and Loan Portfolio — SoFi's expanding balance sheet has increased its exposure to consumer credit risk, with personal loan annualized charge-offs rising to 2. (2) Competition and Margin Pressure — SoFi faces significant risks from increasing competition in the fintech market, which could lead to a slowdown in customer acquisition growth and declining margins in its Financial Services and Lending segments. (3) Regulatory and Legal Risks — SoFi has encountered regulatory scrutiny, including a $1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is SoFi Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SOFI will report consensus revenue of $5.5B (+15.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.28 (-20.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.1B in revenue.
06When does SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SOFI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does SoFi Technologies, Inc. generate?
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) had a free cash outflow of $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SOFI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($65M TTM).