Upside case
Bull case
$41+93.5%
HST would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
22 bullish · 2 bearish · 42 covering HST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
18
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$20
-6.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $41
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.7B
HST price targets
Three scenarios for where HST stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Base
$38
Bull
$41
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$38+79.4%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
HST · NASDAQReal EstateREIT - Hotel & MotelDecember year-end
Host Hotels & Resorts is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates luxury and upper-upscale hotels across the United States and internationally. It generates revenue primarily through hotel operations — collecting room revenue, food and beverage sales, and other guest services — with its portfolio heavily weighted toward premium brands like Marriott, Ritz-Carlton, and Hyatt. The company's competitive advantage lies in its scale as the largest lodging REIT, its strategic partnerships with leading hotel brands, and its disciplined approach to owning properties in high-demand urban and resort markets.
Market Cap
$14.7B
Revenue TTM
$5.9B
Net Income TTM
$738M
Net Margin
12.4%
HST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+40.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.56
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.58/$0.51
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.33
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.51/$0.19
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.64/$0.56 | +14.3% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.58/$0.51 | +13.7% | $1.6B/$1.3B | +20.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.35/$0.33 | +6.1% | $1.3B/$1.5B | -10.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.51/$0.19 | +165.3% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +7.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.5B
+9.4% YoY
FY2
$7.1B
+10.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.39
+30.5% YoY
FY2
$1.78
+27.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$671M
FCF Margin: 11.3%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.36
Expected Revenue
$1.6B
HST beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Occupancy
60.3%
+5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
98.2%
+7.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Occupancy is the largest disclosed segment at 60.3% of FY 2024 revenue, up 5.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 98.2%, up 7.0% YoY.
HST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $29 — implies +35.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
35.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HST
21.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
14% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
HST
21.5x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
11% discount
vs HST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.5x
vs
5Y Average
18.2x
+18% premium
Forward PE
19.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+2%
Real Estate
26.4x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-14%
Real Estate
24.1x
-11%
5Y Avg
18.2x
+18%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-21%
Real Estate
16.7x
-28%
5Y Avg
16.6x
-27%
Price/FCF
15.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-27%
Real Estate
15.4x
0%
5Y Avg
14.4x
+7%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-18%
Real Estate
3.0x
-13%
5Y Avg
3.6x
-28%
Dividend Yield
4.90%
S&P 500
1.87%
+162%
Real Estate
4.66%
+5%
5Y Avg
3.58%
+37%
| Metric | HST | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg HST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.4x | 19.1x | 26.4x-26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.5x | 25.1x-14% | 24.1x-11% | 18.2x+18% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1x | 15.2x-21% | 16.7x-28% | 16.6x-27% |
| Price/FCF | 15.4x | 21.1x-27% | 15.4x | 14.4x |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-18% | 3.0x-13% | 3.6x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.90% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 3.58% |
HST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHST Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HST pays 5.6% total shareholder yield with 13.8% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
53.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.06
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
13.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$554M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.1B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
7.6× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
4.9%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$107M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
105.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
706M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageHST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
The hospitality sector is highly susceptible to economic recessions, which can significantly reduce both leisure and corporate travel demand. This directly impacts HST's revenue per available room (RevPAR), potentially leading to substantial revenue declines.
High Risk
Management Dependence
HST is heavily reliant on Marriott as its primary hotel manager, which poses a risk if this relationship were to be negatively impacted. Any deterioration in this partnership could adversely affect HST's operational efficiency and revenue generation.
High Risk
Market Volatility
Geopolitical tensions and other external factors can influence travel demand, impacting HST's financial performance. The stock's beta of 1.38 indicates it is more volatile than the broader market, suggesting significant fluctuations in stock price.
Medium
Business Travel Recovery
A slower-than-anticipated return of business travel to pre-pandemic levels poses a risk, as many of HST's urban hotel assets rely heavily on this segment. Delays in recovery could hinder revenue growth and profitability.
Medium
Asset Concentration
Recent divestitures in Europe and Asia have led to a greater concentration of assets domestically. This increases exposure to regional market risks, such as natural disasters or changes in local regulations, which could adversely affect HST's operations.
Medium
Interest Rate Risk
Changes in interest rates can affect the value of bonds and potentially influence borrowing costs, impacting HST's financial flexibility. Although not directly involved in derivative financial instruments, rising rates could increase operational costs.
Lower
Dividend Risk
While HST offers a competitive dividend yield, its sustainability can fluctuate with share price and company performance. Any downturn in financial performance could lead to dividend cuts, affecting investor sentiment.
Lower
Operational Costs
Rising operational costs, such as wages and insurance expenses, can challenge profitability. Increased costs without corresponding revenue growth may pressure margins and overall financial health.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervaluation and Attractive Multiples
HST is trading at a P/FFO ratio of 7.6x, which is below its historical levels and peers, suggesting potential upside. The stock is currently priced below the estimated fair value range of $18.50 to $20.50, indicating an upside of approximately 17%.
Strong Financials and Resilience
Host Hotels & Resorts has a strong balance sheet with an investment-grade rating and significant liquidity of $2.3 billion. With 99% of its business unencumbered by debt, the company is well-positioned for opportunistic investments and resilience during economic downturns.
Growth Drivers and Macro Trends
Global travel demand has rebounded, with travel spending projected to grow, supported by consistent business and domestic leisure travel. HST is also benefiting from ongoing renovations and participation in major capital programs, which are driving higher revenue per room.
Dividend and Valuation
HST offers a well-covered dividend yield of 5.46%, making it attractive for income-focused investors. Valuation using the dividend discount model suggests a potential upside of 19.29% to $20.04 per share.
Portfolio and Market Position
As the largest S&P 500 hotel REIT, HST focuses on luxury and upper-upscale properties with a diversified portfolio of 80 hotels. Portfolio upgrades and geographic diversification enhance its growth potential and risk management.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.31
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$14.37
+48.3% from the low
52-Week High
$21.54
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+10.82%
3 Month
+12.16%
YTD
+17.3%
1 Year
+44.5%
3Y CAGR
+6.3%
5Y CAGR
+4.0%
10Y CAGR
+2.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.4x
vs 25.9x median
-25% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.4%
vs +6.1% median
+55% above peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 3.6% median
+247% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HST HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $14.7B | 19.4x | +9.4% | 12.4% | Buy | -6.1% |
PK PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. | $2.3B | 24.8x | +3.2% | -8.5% | Hold | +1.1% |
RHP RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | $6.8B | 27.0x | +14.6% | 9.9% | Buy | +7.5% |
SHO SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. | $1.9B | 127.0x | +8.4% | 3.6% | Hold | +4.8% |
DRH DRH DiamondRock Hospitality Company | $2.2B | 20.2x | +6.1% | 9.3% | Hold | -2.3% |
PEB PEB Pebblebrook Hotel Trust | $1.6B | — | +5.4% | -4.2% | Hold | -4.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HST Dividend and Capital Return
HST returns 5.6% total yield, led by a 4.90% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
4.90%
Payout Ratio
1.1%
How HST Splits Its Return
Div 4.90%
Dividend 4.90%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
21.5%
5Y Div CAGR
36.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$107M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
706M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.95 | -5.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.00 | +11.1% | 0.9% | 6.8% |
| 2023 | $0.90 | +69.8% | 1.3% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $0.53 | — | 0.2% | 1.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsHST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $20, implying -6.1% from the current price of $21.
02What is the HST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HST is $20 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $22 (+3.2% from today), and the low-end target is $18 (-15.5%). The base case model target is $38.
03Is Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) stock overvalued in 2026?
HST trades at 19.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HST in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — The hospitality sector is highly susceptible to economic recessions, which can significantly reduce both leisure and corporate travel demand. (2) Management Dependence — HST is heavily reliant on Marriott as its primary hotel manager, which poses a risk if this relationship were to be negatively impacted. (3) Market Volatility — Geopolitical tensions and other external factors can influence travel demand, impacting HST's financial performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HST will report consensus revenue of $6.5B (+9.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.39 (+30.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.1B in revenue.
06When does Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) report its next earnings?
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.36 and revenue of $1.6B. Over recent quarters, HST has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. generate?
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) generated $671M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.3%. HST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.9% yield) and share repurchases ($107M TTM).