Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing HTFL more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
4
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering HTFL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$38
+25.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.2B
HTFL price targets
Three scenarios for where HTFL stock could go
Current
~$30
Confidence
—
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock
HTFL · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Healthcare Information Services
HeartFlow is a medical technology company that provides AI-powered non-invasive diagnostic solutions for coronary artery disease. It generates revenue primarily through its HeartFlow Platform — which analyzes coronary CT scans to create personalized 3D heart models and blood flow assessments — sold to hospitals and healthcare systems. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary AI and computational fluid dynamics technology that transforms standard CT scans into actionable clinical insights without invasive procedures.
Market Cap
$11.2B
Revenue TTM
$176M
Net Income TTM
-$117M
Net Margin
-66.3%
HTFL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
3 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-211.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 3 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 3Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.46/$-0.20
Revenue
$43M/$43M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.27/$-0.20
Revenue
$46M/$46M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.17
Revenue
$49M/$47M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-1.46/$-0.20 | -630.0% | $43M/$43M | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.27/$-0.20 | -35.0% | $46M/$46M | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.12/$-0.17 | +30.9% | $49M/$47M | +5.5% |
Next Earnings
May 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.18
Expected Revenue
$50M
HTFL beat EPS estimates in 1 of 3 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
HTFL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non Us
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Non Us is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
HTFL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $2 — implies -93.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
93.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HTFL
-22.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
188% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
HTFL
-22.1x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
200% discount
vs HTFL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-22.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-22.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-188%
Healthcare
22.1x
-200%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Healthcare
18.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
63.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1924%
Healthcare
2.8x
+2126%
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | HTFL | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg HTFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -22.1x | 25.2x-188% | 22.1x-200% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 18.7x | — |
| Price/Sales | 63.4x | 3.1x+1924% | 2.8x+2126% | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
HTFL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHTFL Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for HTFL are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$176M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
92.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-36.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-66.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.32
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$59M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-33.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-17.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-43.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$45M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$23M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
369M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHTFL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Product Concentration
HeartFlow's revenue is overwhelmingly dependent on its HeartFlow FFRCT Analysis product, which accounts for nearly all of its revenue. This heavy reliance on a single product poses a significant risk, especially as the company works to commercialize a second product.
High Risk
Profitability and Financial Performance
HeartFlow has a history of fast growth without sustainable value creation, characterized by persistent losses and negative free cash flow. Despite some improvement in its net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) margin, it remains negative with no clear path to rapid margin improvement.
High Risk
Valuation
The current stock valuation appears to assume improbable long-term high growth and significant margin expansion. If these expectations are not met, the downside risk for the stock is substantial.
Medium
Competition
The large and attractive market for HeartFlow's solutions invites heightened competition, which could impact market share and pricing power. As competitors enter the space, HeartFlow may face challenges in maintaining its position.
Medium
Pricing Pressure
HeartFlow is susceptible to pricing pressures from its key customers, which are often large health systems. This customer bargaining power can lead to reduced margins and profitability.
Lower
Share Price Volatility
HTFL's share price has shown volatility, particularly over the past three months compared to the broader US market. This volatility may affect investor sentiment and trading behavior.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment
While there have been recent analyst upgrades, the stock's valuation is considered 'Ultra Expensive' by some metrics. This perception may lead to caution among potential investors.
Lower
Technical Indicators
Some technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), 50-day moving average, and MACD, suggest a 'Sell' signal for the stock. These indicators may influence short-term trading decisions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HTFL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Revenue Growth
HeartFlow reported Q4 2025 revenue of $49.1 million, marking a 40% increase year-over-year. For the full year 2025, revenue reached $176.0 million, also reflecting a 40% year-over-year growth.
Improving Gross Margins
The company's gross margins have improved significantly, reaching 79.5% in Q4 2025 and 76.8% for the full year. This improvement indicates enhanced operational efficiency and profitability potential.
Robust Cash Position
As of Q4 2025, HeartFlow holds $280.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, providing a strong financial foundation. The company has no debt and a flawless balance sheet, ensuring low risk.
Technological Advancements
HeartFlow leverages AI and computational fluid dynamics for non-invasive coronary artery disease management. The recent FDA clearance for its next-generation plaque analysis algorithm enhances its competitive edge.
Expanded Insurance Coverage
With Aetna covering HeartFlow Plaque Analysis, the total U.S. covered lives for this service has reached approximately 75%. This expansion is expected to drive adoption and revenue growth.
Positive Technical Indicators
Recent technical signals, such as the 10-day moving average crossing above the 50-day moving average, suggest a potential upward trend. Additionally, a positive Momentum Indicator indicates a possible new upward move for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HTFL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.29
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.13
+50.5% from the low
52-Week High
$41.22
-26.5% from the high
1 Month
+16.68%
3 Month
+9.19%
YTD
+4.6%
1 Year
+5.4%
3Y CAGR
+1.8%
5Y CAGR
+1.0%
10Y CAGR
+0.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HTFL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 28.1x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
—
vs +14.2% median
Peer median unavailable
Net Margin
-66.3%
vs -3.5% median
-1781% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HTF HTFL Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock | $11.2B | — | — | -66.3% | Buy | +25.5% |
ISR ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | $160.4B | 43.7x | +14.2% | 28.2% | Buy | +37.8% |
IRT IRTC iRhythm Technologies, Inc. | $3.9B | — | +21.3% | -3.5% | Buy | +64.5% |
RXR RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +32.1% | -844.5% | Hold | +220.7% |
NVC NVCR NovoCure Limited | $1.9B | — | +6.5% | -25.7% | Buy | +103.1% |
GEH GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | $28.1B | 12.5x | +6.1% | 7.5% | Buy | +36.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
6 questionsHTFL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $38, implying +25.5% from the current price of $30.
02What is the HTFL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HTFL is $38 based on 4 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $38 (+25.5% from today), and the low-end target is $38 (+25.5%).
03Is Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for HTFL is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HTFL in 2026 are: (1) Product Concentration — HeartFlow's revenue is overwhelmingly dependent on its HeartFlow FFRCT Analysis product, which accounts for nearly all of its revenue. (2) Profitability and Financial Performance — HeartFlow has a history of fast growth without sustainable value creation, characterized by persistent losses and negative free cash flow. (3) Valuation — The current stock valuation appears to assume improbable long-term high growth and significant margin expansion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05When does Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) report its next earnings?
Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-14. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.18 and revenue of $50M. Over recent quarters, HTFL has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock generate?
Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) had a free cash outflow of $59M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 33.5%. HTFL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).