Upside case
Bull case
$888+96.6%
ISRG would need investors to value it at roughly 86x earnings — about 42x more generous than today's 44x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
55
analysts
38 bullish · 5 bearish · 55 covering ISRG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
12
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$623
+37.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$446 – $888
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
55
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
43.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $160.4B
ISRG price targets
Three scenarios for where ISRG stock could go
Current
~$452
Confidence
80 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $452
Bear
$446
Base
$678
Bull
$888
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$678+50.0%
At 66x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$446-1.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push ISRG down roughly 1% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
ISRG · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesDecember year-end
Intuitive Surgical is a medical device company that develops robotic-assisted surgical systems for minimally invasive procedures. It generates revenue primarily from selling its da Vinci surgical systems and related instruments/accessories — with recurring revenue from instrument sales and service contracts providing stable cash flow. The company's moat lies in its massive installed base of systems, extensive surgeon training ecosystem, and significant clinical data supporting its technology's efficacy — creating high switching costs for hospitals.
Market Cap
$160.4B
Revenue TTM
$10.6B
Net Income TTM
$3.0B
Net Margin
28.2%
ISRG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.19/$1.93
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.40/$1.99
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.53/$2.27
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.50/$2.12
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.19/$1.93 | +13.5% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.40/$1.99 | +20.6% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.53/$2.27 | +11.5% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.50/$2.12 | +17.9% | $2.8B/$2.6B | +5.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.1B
+14.2% YoY
FY2
$14.2B
+17.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.18
+23.0% YoY
FY2
$11.81
+16.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.8B
FCF Margin: 26.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ISRG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ISRG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Instruments and Accessories
59.8%
+18.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Geographic Distribution, Domestic
67.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Instruments and Accessories is the largest disclosed segment at 59.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 18.5% YoY.
Geographic Distribution, Domestic is the largest reported region at 67.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ISRG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $309 — implies -32.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
32.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ISRG
57.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+128% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ISRG
57.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+159% premium
vs ISRG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
57.4x
vs
5Y Average
74.0x
22% discount
Forward PE
43.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+129%
Healthcare
19.0x
+129%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
57.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+128%
Healthcare
22.1x
+159%
5Y Avg
74.0x
-22%
PEG Ratio
2.64x
S&P 500
1.75x
+51%
Healthcare
1.52x
+73%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
43.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+185%
Healthcare
14.1x
+207%
5Y Avg
57.3x
-24%
Price/FCF
64.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+202%
Healthcare
18.7x
+245%
5Y Avg
112.8x
-43%
Price/Sales
15.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+409%
Healthcare
2.8x
+460%
5Y Avg
19.7x
-19%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ISRG | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ISRG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 43.7x | 19.1x+129% | 19.0x+129% | — |
| Trailing PE | 57.4x | 25.2x+128% | 22.1x+159% | 74.0x-22% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.64x | 1.75x+51% | 1.52x+73% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.4x | 15.3x+185% | 14.1x+207% | 57.3x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 64.4x | 21.3x+202% | 18.7x+245% | 112.8x-43% |
| Price/Sales | 15.9x | 3.1x+409% | 2.8x+460% | 19.7x-19% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
ISRG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolISRG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ISRG generates $2.8B in free cash flow at a 26.8% margin — 15.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
66.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
28.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.28
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
355M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageISRG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal Landscape
Intuitive Surgical faces frequent lawsuits from patients, suppliers, and competitors. New or re‑emerging claims can erode profitability and damage its reputation among hospitals and health systems.
High Risk
Market Dependence
The company’s revenue is heavily concentrated in the da Vinci Surgical System. Market saturation or technological obsolescence could sharply reduce sales growth.
High Risk
Technological Obsolescence
Reliance on the da Vinci platform exposes Intuitive to rapid advances by competitors. Failure to innovate could render its flagship system less attractive to surgeons.
High Risk
Margin Pressures
Profit margins are being squeezed by tariffs, higher manufacturing costs, and the lower initial margins of newer platforms such as da Vinci 5 and Ion.
Medium
Cybersecurity & Data Security
A recent phishing incident highlighted vulnerabilities in data protection. Inadequate controls could trigger regulatory scrutiny and erode trust with healthcare providers.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ISRG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership & Defensibility
Intuitive Surgical pioneered minimally invasive robotic surgery with its da Vinci system, creating steep switching costs as surgeon training is time‑consuming and expensive. This leads to strong customer loyalty once a system is adopted, cementing a defensible market position.
Razor‑and‑Blades Recurring Revenue
Over 75% of ISRG’s revenue comes from instruments, accessories and services used in each operation, generating high‑margin, recurring cash flow. The installed base continues to grow, making revenue stickier and more predictable.
Robotic Adoption Surge
Hospitals and surgical centers are increasingly adopting robotic surgery for improved outcomes and faster recovery. ISRG is expanding into additional specialties, driving near‑term revenue growth across thoracic and gynecological procedures.
da Vinci 5 Global Rollout
The phased worldwide launch of the da Vinci 5 system is a significant near‑term catalyst, supported by recent regulatory approvals. This new platform is expected to accelerate adoption and broaden the product portfolio.
Strong Financial Backbone
ISRG maintains high gross margins of around 66% and generates substantial free cash flow while operating with minimal debt. These financial strengths underpin continued investment in growth and product development.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ISRG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$451.73
52W Range Position
14%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$427.84
+5.6% from the low
52-Week High
$603.88
-25.2% from the high
1 Month
-0.19%
3 Month
-7.46%
YTD
-19.6%
1 Year
-14.8%
3Y CAGR
+14.2%
5Y CAGR
+10.0%
10Y CAGR
+20.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ISRG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
43.7x
vs 16.6x median
+163% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.2%
vs +3.8% median
+270% above peer median
Net Margin
28.2%
vs 13.0% median
+117% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ISR ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | $160.4B | 43.7x | +14.2% | 28.2% | Buy | +37.8% |
SYK SYK Stryker Corporation | $112.0B | 19.5x | +9.9% | 12.9% | Buy | +38.1% |
MDT MDT Medtronic plc | $99.5B | 14.1x | +2.5% | 13.0% | Buy | +41.1% |
BSX BSX Boston Scientific Corporation | $83.2B | 16.6x | +12.8% | 14.4% | Buy | +63.1% |
ZBH ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $16.2B | 9.8x | +3.8% | 9.1% | Hold | +18.2% |
HOL HOLX Hologic, Inc. | $17.0B | 17.2x | +0.3% | 13.2% | Hold | +3.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ISRG Dividend and Capital Return
ISRG returns 1.4% annually — null% through dividends and 1.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
355M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsISRG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 55 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $623, implying +37.8% from the current price of $452. The bear case scenario is $446 and the bull case is $888.
02What is the ISRG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ISRG is $623 based on 55 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $750 (+66.0% from today), and the low-end target is $525 (+16.2%). The base case model target is $678.
03Is Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) stock overvalued in 2026?
ISRG trades at 43.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ISRG in 2026 are: (1) Legal Landscape — Intuitive Surgical faces frequent lawsuits from patients, suppliers, and competitors. (2) Market Dependence — The company’s revenue is heavily concentrated in the da Vinci Surgical System. (3) Technological Obsolescence — Reliance on the da Vinci platform exposes Intuitive to rapid advances by competitors. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ISRG will report consensus revenue of $12.1B (+14.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.18 (+23.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.2B in revenue.
06When does Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ISRG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Intuitive Surgical, Inc. generate?
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) generated $2.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.8%. ISRG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.3B TTM).