Upside case
Bull case
$7-79.2%
The bull case prices IOT at 13x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Samsara Inc. (IOT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
14 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering IOT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
+27.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$3 – $7
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
62.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.3B
IOT price targets
Three scenarios for where IOT stock could go
Current
~$32
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $32
Bear
$3
Base
$5
Bull
$7
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$5-84.2%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$3-90.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 56x multiple contraction could push IOT down roughly 90% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Samsara Inc.
IOT · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJanuary year-end
Samsara is a technology company that provides an IoT platform connecting physical operations data to its Connected Operations Cloud. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud platform — which includes video-based safety, vehicle telematics, equipment monitoring, and site visibility applications — with over 90% of revenue coming from subscriptions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated hardware-software ecosystem that creates high switching costs and network effects as customers deploy more devices across their operations.
Market Cap
$18.3B
Revenue TTM
$1.7B
Net Income TTM
$58M
Net Margin
3.3%
IOT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+135.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.12/$0.07
Revenue
$391M/$372M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.15/$0.12
Revenue
$416M/$399M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.18/$0.13
Revenue
$444M/$422M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.17/$0.13
Revenue
$479M/$455M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.12/$0.07 | +65.9% | $391M/$372M | +5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.15/$0.12 | +26.9% | $416M/$399M | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.18/$0.13 | +40.1% | $444M/$422M | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.17/$0.13 | +30.6% | $479M/$455M | +5.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.9B
+11.6% YoY
FY2
$2.1B
+8.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.23
+131.3% YoY
FY2
$0.28
+22.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$235M
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
IOT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
IOT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription and Circulation
98.1%
+29.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
85.6%
+28.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription and Circulation is the largest disclosed segment at 98.1% of FY 2026 revenue, up 29.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 85.6%, up 28.0% YoY.
IOT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $7 — implies -78.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
78.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IOT
-1993.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
8252% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
IOT
-1993.1x
vs
Technology
29.0x
6971% discount
vs IOT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-1993.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
62.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+232%
Technology
22.3x
+181%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-1993.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-8252%
Technology
29.0x
-6971%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
88.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+326%
Technology
19.2x
+359%
5Y Avg
77.5x
+14%
Price/Sales
11.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+265%
Technology
2.4x
+363%
5Y Avg
16.6x
-32%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | IOT | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg IOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 62.5x | 18.8x+232% | 22.3x+181% | — |
| Trailing PE | -1993.1x | 24.4x-8252% | 29.0x-6971% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | 88.2x | 20.7x+326% | 19.2x+359% | 77.5x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 11.3x | 3.1x+265% | 2.4x+363% | 16.6x-32% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
IOT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIOT Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
IOT generates $235M in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+29.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
76.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-0.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$235M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-3.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$319M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$246M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-3.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
577M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageIOT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The bear case scenario price target of $3 implies significant downside risk compared to the current price of $34.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Scaling AI capabilities in fleet management and industrial IoT markets may face intense competition, limiting market share growth.
Lower
Financial health concerns
Investors should review fundamental analysis and smart money sentiment to assess potential financial risks.
Medium
Execution risk
The company's trajectory depends on successful scaling of its AI-powered Connected Operations Platform, which carries execution uncertainties.
Lower
Market adoption risk
Despite positive analyst ratings, broader market adoption of Samsara's technology is not guaranteed, impacting revenue growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IOT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AI-powered fleet optimization
Samsara's AI technology enhances fleet safety and reduces costs through dash cams, GPS, telematics, and compliance tools.
Record ARR growth
The company has demonstrated strong annual recurring revenue growth, signaling robust business scalability.
Large customer expansion
Samsara is rapidly expanding its base of large customers, driving revenue diversification and stability.
International adoption
The company's solutions are gaining traction in international markets, broadening its growth opportunities.
High forward P/E ratio
A forward P/E of 44.25 reflects strong investor confidence in future earnings potential.
Driver App efficiency
Samsara's Driver App improves safety and productivity for professional drivers, enhancing customer value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IOT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$31.69
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$23.38
+35.5% from the low
52-Week High
$47.47
-33.2% from the high
1 Month
+3.53%
3 Month
-5.91%
YTD
-6.6%
1 Year
-18.1%
3Y CAGR
+4.0%
5Y CAGR
+5.1%
10Y CAGR
+2.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IOT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
62.5x
vs 25.0x median
+150% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.6%
vs +8.7% median
+33% above peer median
Net Margin
3.3%
vs 11.9% median
-72% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IOT IOT Samsara Inc. | $18.3B | 62.5x | +11.6% | 3.3% | Buy | +27.3% |
TRA TRAK ReposiTrak, Inc. | $168M | 25.0x | +6.7% | 31.0% | Buy | +159.5% |
MBL MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. | $6.9B | 30.6x | +4.2% | -204.0% | Buy | +57.4% |
GRM GRMN Garmin Ltd. | $45.2B | 24.3x | +8.7% | 23.3% | Hold | +15.6% |
SPS SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. | $2.0B | 11.2x | +14.6% | 11.9% | Hold | +29.3% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $79.4B | 91.9x | +18.2% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsIOT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Samsara Inc. (IOT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Samsara Inc. (IOT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying +27.3% from the current price of $32. The bear case scenario is $3 and the bull case is $7.
02What is the IOT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IOT is $40 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $48 (+51.5% from today), and the low-end target is $30 (-5.3%). The base case model target is $5.
03Is Samsara Inc. (IOT) stock overvalued in 2026?
IOT trades at 62.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Samsara Inc. (IOT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IOT in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The bear case scenario price target of $3 implies significant downside risk compared to the current price of $34. (2) Competitive pressures — Scaling AI capabilities in fleet management and industrial IoT markets may face intense competition, limiting market share growth. (3) Execution risk — The company's trajectory depends on successful scaling of its AI-powered Connected Operations Platform, which carries execution uncertainties. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Samsara Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IOT will report consensus revenue of $1.9B (+11.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.23 (+131.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.1B in revenue.
06When does Samsara Inc. (IOT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for IOT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Samsara Inc. generate?
Samsara Inc. (IOT) generated $235M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. IOT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).