Upside case
Bull case
$377+61.1%
GRMN would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
28
analysts
6 bullish · 2 bearish · 28 covering GRMN
Strong Buy
1
Buy
5
Hold
20
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$271
+15.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$180 – $377
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.2B
GRMN price targets
Three scenarios for where GRMN stock could go
Current
~$234
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $234
Bear
$180
Base
$286
Bull
$377
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$286+22.3%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$180-23.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push GRMN down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Garmin Ltd.
GRMN · NYSETechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsDecember year-end
Garmin is a global leader in GPS navigation and wearable technology devices across multiple specialized markets. It generates revenue through five main segments: fitness watches and wearables (~40%), outdoor recreation devices (~20%), aviation avionics (~20%), marine electronics (~15%), and automotive navigation systems (~5%). The company's competitive moat comes from its deep vertical integration—designing its own chips and software—and its strong brand recognition in specialized, high-margin niches where reliability and precision are critical.
Market Cap
$45.2B
Revenue TTM
$7.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
23.3%
GRMN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.17/$1.90
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.99/$1.99
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.79/$2.40
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.08/$1.84
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.17/$1.90 | +14.2% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.99/$1.99 | +0.0% | $1.8B/$1.8B | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.79/$2.40 | +16.3% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.08/$1.84 | +13.0% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.1B
+8.7% YoY
FY2
$8.8B
+8.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.63
+7.4% YoY
FY2
$10.33
+7.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 19.4%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.27
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
GRMN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GRMN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Fitness
32.5%
+32.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
47.7%
+13.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Fitness is the largest disclosed segment at 32.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 32.8% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 47.7%, up 13.8% YoY.
GRMN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $366 — implies +56.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
56.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GRMN
27.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+12% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
GRMN
27.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
6% discount
vs GRMN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.3x
vs
5Y Average
22.9x
+19% premium
Forward PE
24.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+29%
Technology
22.3x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+12%
Technology
29.0x
-6%
5Y Avg
22.9x
+19%
PEG Ratio
2.55x
S&P 500
1.66x
+54%
Technology
1.51x
+69%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+37%
Technology
16.6x
+25%
5Y Avg
18.1x
+15%
Price/FCF
33.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+60%
Technology
19.2x
+73%
5Y Avg
30.6x
+8%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+102%
Technology
2.4x
+156%
5Y Avg
5.1x
+22%
Dividend Yield
1.46%
S&P 500
1.91%
-23%
Technology
1.11%
+32%
5Y Avg
2.21%
-34%
| Metric | GRMN | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg GRMN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.3x | 18.8x+29% | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.3x | 24.4x+12% | 29.0x | 22.9x+19% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.55x | 1.66x+54% | 1.51x+69% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.9x | 15.2x+37% | 16.6x+25% | 18.1x+15% |
| Price/FCF | 33.1x | 20.7x+60% | 19.2x+73% | 30.6x |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+102% | 2.4x+156% | 5.1x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.46% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 2.21% |
GRMN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGRMN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GRMN generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 19.4% margin — 22.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
59.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.97
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$238M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.43
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
193M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGRMN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation Risk
Morgan Stanley's bear case valuation of $148 suggests potential downside risk compared to current trading levels.
Lower
Earnings Growth Risk
Expected earnings per share growth of 7% through 2028 may lag behind market expectations.
Medium
Market Sentiment Risk
AI models predict minimal price appreciation ($231.67 by 2026), indicating muted bullish sentiment.
High Risk
Competitive Risk
Dependence on GPS-enabled products in a crowded tech market exposes Garmin to intense competition.
Lower
Product Update Risk
Reliance on software updates (e.g., Garmin Express) for device functionality may lead to user dissatisfaction if not seamless.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GRMN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong earnings growth outlook
Morgan Stanley expects Garmin to compound earnings per share at more than 7% through 2028, with a bull case valuation of $332.
Premium product innovation
Garmin continues to launch advanced products like the GARMIN SIGNAL™ marine radios with AIS and touchscreen displays, showcasing technological leadership.
Diverse product portfolio
Garmin offers a wide range of GPS-enabled devices including smartwatches, fitness trackers, and navigation systems, catering to various active lifestyles.
Software ecosystem integration
Garmin Express and Garmin Connect provide seamless updates, synchronization, and device management, enhancing user experience and retention.
Niche market strength
Garmin's premium hardware and specialized exposure in marine and aviation markets provide competitive advantages and potential for sustained growth.
Institutional research coverage
Comprehensive institutional research reports highlight Garmin's investment thesis, valuation, and catalysts, attracting smart-money flows.
Exceeding financial expectations
Garmin reported impressive Q4 2025 results, surpassing both earnings and revenue estimates, demonstrating strong operational performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GRMN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$234.20
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$186.67
+25.5% from the low
52-Week High
$273.32
-14.3% from the high
1 Month
+3.22%
3 Month
+1.12%
YTD
+15.7%
1 Year
+18.1%
3Y CAGR
+30.5%
5Y CAGR
+10.9%
10Y CAGR
+18.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GRMN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.3x
vs 35.8x median
-32% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.7%
vs +2.9% median
+204% above peer median
Net Margin
23.3%
vs -2.8% median
+923% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GRM GRMN Garmin Ltd. | $45.2B | 24.3x | +8.7% | 23.3% | Hold | +15.6% |
FOS FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. | $254M | — | -2.0% | -6.2% | Hold | +63.2% |
SON SONO Sonos, Inc. | $1.8B | 37.6x | +0.3% | -2.8% | Buy | +32.8% |
GPR GPRO GoPro, Inc. | $135M | 15.8x | +3.0% | -20.7% | Hold | +533.0% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.9B | 65.3x | +2.9% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.3% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.38T | 34.0x | +6.8% | 27.2% | Buy | +9.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GRMN Dividend and Capital Return
GRMN returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.46% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
1.46%
Payout Ratio
39.9%
How GRMN Splits Its Return
Div 1.46%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 1.46%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.43
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
7 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$238M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
193M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.05 | -74.1% | — | — |
| 2026 | $4.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.45 | +15.8% | 0.6% | 2.3% |
| 2024 | $2.98 | +2.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| 2023 | $2.92 | +2.1% | 0.4% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsGRMN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $271, implying +15.6% from the current price of $234. The bear case scenario is $180 and the bull case is $377.
02What is the GRMN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GRMN is $271 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $325 (+38.8% from today), and the low-end target is $238 (+1.6%). The base case model target is $286.
03Is Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) stock overvalued in 2026?
GRMN trades at 24.3x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GRMN in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Risk — Dependence on GPS-enabled products in a crowded tech market exposes Garmin to intense competition. (2) Valuation Risk — Morgan Stanley's bear case valuation of $148 suggests potential downside risk compared to current trading levels. (3) Market Sentiment Risk — AI models predict minimal price appreciation ($231. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Garmin Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GRMN will report consensus revenue of $8.1B (+8.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.63 (+7.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.8B in revenue.
06When does Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) report its next earnings?
Garmin Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $2.27 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, GRMN has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Garmin Ltd. generate?
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.4%. GRMN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($238M TTM).