Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing JAZZ more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
48
analysts
42 bullish · 0 bearish · 48 covering JAZZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
42
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$216
-5.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.3B
JAZZ price targets
Three scenarios for where JAZZ stock could go
Current
~$229
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc
JAZZ · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Jazz Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes treatments for serious medical conditions, primarily in neuroscience and oncology. It generates revenue through sales of its specialty pharmaceuticals — with key products including Xyrem/Xywav for sleep disorders and oncology drugs like Vyxeos and Zepzelca — and through strategic acquisitions that expand its therapeutic portfolio. The company's competitive advantage lies in its focused expertise on complex, high-need therapeutic areas with significant barriers to entry and its portfolio of protected products with limited competition.
Market Cap
$14.3B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
$29M
Net Margin
0.7%
JAZZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-4.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.68/$4.51
Revenue
$898M/$1.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$-8.25/$-6.12
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$8.13/$5.95
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.64/$6.52
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.68/$4.51 | -62.7% | $898M/$1.1B | -15.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $-8.25/$-6.12 | -34.8% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.13/$5.95 | +36.6% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.64/$6.52 | +1.8% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.6B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$5.0B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.74
+1859.6% YoY
FY2
$7.95
-9.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 28.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
JAZZ beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
JAZZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Xywav
39.6%
+12.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
89.8%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Xywav is the largest disclosed segment at 39.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 89.8%, up 4.7% YoY.
JAZZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $220 — implies +8.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
8.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JAZZ
-39.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
255% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
JAZZ
-39.1x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
277% discount
vs JAZZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-39.1x
vs
5Y Average
17.2x
328% discount
Forward PE
9.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-50%
Healthcare
19.0x
-50%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-39.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-255%
Healthcare
22.1x
-277%
5Y Avg
17.2x
-328%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+57%
Healthcare
14.1x
+70%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+45%
Price/FCF
11.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-48%
Healthcare
18.7x
-41%
5Y Avg
9.1x
+21%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Healthcare
2.8x
+18%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+41%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | JAZZ | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg JAZZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.5x | 19.1x-50% | 19.0x-50% | — |
| Trailing PE | -39.1x | 25.2x-255% | 22.1x-277% | 17.2x-328% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.0x | 15.3x+57% | 14.1x+70% | 16.6x+45% |
| Price/FCF | 11.1x | 21.3x-48% | 18.7x-41% | 9.1x+21% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.8x+18% | 2.4x+41% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
JAZZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJAZZ Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
JAZZ generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 28.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
66.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.2× FCF
~3.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$125M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
63M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJAZZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Legal and Regulatory Risks
Jazz Pharmaceuticals relies on regulatory marketing exclusivity for many of its products, typically granted for seven years for Orphan Drug Designation. However, this exclusivity can be shortened, leading to earlier competition and potential revenue loss.
High Risk
Competition and Market Risks
Jazz faces significant competition from generic drugs, particularly with Xywav expected to encounter generic high-sodium oxybate competition in the second half of 2026. This could compress the sleep franchise and adversely affect growth assumptions for the product.
High Risk
Financial and Corporate Risks
Jazz Pharmaceuticals has substantial liabilities, with total liabilities exceeding its cash and near-term receivables. This financial strain is compounded by a 16% decline in EBIT over the last year, raising concerns about the company's ability to manage its debt.
Medium
Regulatory Approvals
There is a risk that regulatory submissions may not be accepted or approved in a timely manner, or at all. Uncertainty in clinical trial outcomes could materially impact the business if safety and effectiveness are not proven.
Medium
Product Market Acceptance
The commercial success of Jazz's products hinges on their acceptance by physicians, patients, and payors. Failure to achieve market acceptance could significantly hinder revenue growth.
Medium
Debt Levels
The company's significant debt levels relative to its market capitalization warrant close monitoring. The current financial position, with liabilities outweighing cash and receivables, poses a risk to operational stability.
Lower
Product-Specific Risks
The distribution of oxybate products is subject to stringent regulatory restrictions, which could negatively impact sales. Additionally, the success of the zanidatamab launch is crucial for generating new oncology revenue.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JAZZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Pipeline Advancements and Acquisitions
Jazz Pharmaceuticals is expected to see significant growth from recent pipeline developments and acquisitions, which are projected to contribute a substantial portion of future sales.
Neuroscience and Oncology Growth
The neuroscience segment is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2020 to 2026, supported by its sodium oxybate franchise and Epidiolex. The oncology segment is forecasted to grow even more robustly at a CAGR of 16%, fueled by Zepzelca and Rylaze.
Zanidatamab Potential
Positive clinical results for zanidatamab, a HER2-targeting bispecific antibody therapy, in HER2+ gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma are a significant catalyst. Its FDA review is underway, with a potential commercial launch in the second half of 2026.
New Launches and Portfolio Expansion
The company has seen strong performance from new launches like Modeyso, a brain cancer drug, which generated $37 million in its first full quarter. Jazz is also focusing on expanding its portfolio across multiple indications and geographies.
Financial Projections
Analysts project total sales to increase from an estimated $4.3 billion in 2020 to $4.4 billion by 2026, growing to $6.0 billion by 2030. Revenue guidance for 2026 anticipates continued growth in oncology and epilepsy.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JAZZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$228.57
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$97.50
+134.4% from the low
52-Week High
$230.40
-0.8% from the high
1 Month
+22.33%
3 Month
+38.11%
YTD
+32.0%
1 Year
+105.6%
3Y CAGR
+18.1%
5Y CAGR
+5.7%
10Y CAGR
+4.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JAZZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.5x
vs 11.8x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +4.8% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
0.7%
vs -3.7% median
+118% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JAZ JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $14.3B | 9.5x | +4.4% | 0.7% | Buy | -5.4% |
SUP SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $3.0B | 23.7x | +7.1% | -3.7% | Buy | +16.6% |
PCR PCRX Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | $932M | 8.6x | +4.8% | 1.3% | Hold | +24.5% |
INV INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $1.9B | 11.8x | +11.8% | 118.9% | Buy | +67.3% |
AVN AVNS Avanos Medical, Inc. | $1.2B | 24.7x | +0.8% | -9.7% | Hold | -7.0% |
PRG PRGO Perrigo Company plc | $1.7B | 5.8x | -1.9% | -43.5% | Hold | +63.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JAZZ Dividend and Capital Return
JAZZ returns 0.9% annually — null% through dividends and 0.9% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$125M
Estimated Shares Retired
547.0K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
63M
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsJAZZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 42 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $216, implying -5.4% from the current price of $229.
02What is the JAZZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JAZZ is $216 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $235 (+2.8% from today), and the low-end target is $188 (-17.7%).
03Is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
JAZZ trades at 9.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JAZZ in 2026 are: (1) Legal and Regulatory Risks — Jazz Pharmaceuticals relies on regulatory marketing exclusivity for many of its products, typically granted for seven years for Orphan Drug Designation. (2) Competition and Market Risks — Jazz faces significant competition from generic drugs, particularly with Xywav expected to encounter generic high-sodium oxybate competition in the second half of 2026. (3) Financial and Corporate Risks — Jazz Pharmaceuticals has substantial liabilities, with total liabilities exceeding its cash and near-term receivables. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JAZZ will report consensus revenue of $4.6B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.74 (+1859.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.0B in revenue.
06When does Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for JAZZ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc generate?
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.1%. JAZZ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($125M TTM).