Upside case
Bull case
$142-36.6%
The bull case prices JAZZ at 6x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
48
analysts
43 bullish · 0 bearish · 48 covering JAZZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
43
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$257
+14.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$68 – $142
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.1B
JAZZ price targets
Three scenarios for where JAZZ stock could go
Current
~$225
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $225
Bear
$68
Base
$108
Bull
$142
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$108-51.9%
At 4x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$68-69.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push JAZZ down roughly 70% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc
JAZZ · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Jazz Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes treatments for serious medical conditions, primarily in neuroscience and oncology. It generates revenue through sales of its specialty pharmaceuticals — with key products including Xyrem/Xywav for sleep disorders and oncology drugs like Vyxeos and Zepzelca — and through strategic acquisitions that expand its therapeutic portfolio. The company's competitive advantage lies in its focused expertise on complex, high-need therapeutic areas with significant barriers to entry and its portfolio of protected products with limited competition.
Market Cap
$14.1B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
$29M
Net Margin
0.7%
JAZZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-8.25/$-6.12
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$8.13/$5.95
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.64/$6.52
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.34/$4.64
Revenue
$1.1B/$979M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-8.25/$-6.12 | -34.8% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.13/$5.95 | +36.6% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.64/$6.52 | +1.8% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.34/$4.64 | +36.6% | $1.1B/$979M | +9.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.9B
+9.6% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+5.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.70
+1401.1% YoY
FY2
$6.00
-10.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 28.1%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$6.18
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
JAZZ beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
JAZZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Xywav
39.6%
+12.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
89.8%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Xywav is the largest disclosed segment at 39.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 89.8%, up 4.7% YoY.
JAZZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $157 — implies -30.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
30.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JAZZ
-38.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
257% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
JAZZ
-38.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
274% discount
vs JAZZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-38.5x
vs
5Y Average
17.2x
324% discount
Forward PE
8.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
-53%
Healthcare
18.3x
-52%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-38.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-257%
Healthcare
22.1x
-274%
5Y Avg
17.2x
-324%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+55%
Healthcare
14.2x
+66%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+43%
Price/FCF
10.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-47%
Healthcare
18.5x
-41%
5Y Avg
9.1x
+19%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Healthcare
2.6x
+25%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+39%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | JAZZ | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg JAZZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.9x | 18.8x-53% | 18.3x-52% | — |
| Trailing PE | -38.5x | 24.4x-257% | 22.1x-274% | 17.2x-324% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.7x | 15.2x+55% | 14.2x+66% | 16.6x+43% |
| Price/FCF | 10.9x | 20.7x-47% | 18.5x-41% | 9.1x+19% |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 2.6x+25% | 2.4x+39% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
JAZZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJAZZ Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
JAZZ generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 28.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
66.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.2× FCF
~3.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$125M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
63M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJAZZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Risks
Jazz Pharmaceuticals disclosed 47 risk factors, with the majority concentrated in the Legal & Regulatory category, indicating significant exposure to compliance and litigation challenges.
Medium
Product Diversification Risk
While Jazz has diversified across sleep, epilepsy, and oncology, reliance on multiple therapeutic areas still carries execution and market adoption risks.
Medium
Financial Guidance Uncertainty
The company's 2026 financial guidance introduces potential volatility if execution fails to meet projected earnings targets.
Lower
Market Competition
Competitive pressures in Jazz's therapeutic areas could erode market share or pricing power over time.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JAZZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Exclusive license agreement
Jazz Pharmaceuticals secured exclusive worldwide rights to develop and commercialize SAN2355, a potential treatment for epilepsy, through a global license agreement with Saniona.
Strong analyst consensus
Fifteen analysts hold buy or outperform ratings on Jazz Pharmaceuticals stock, with a mean target price implying 15% upside and high conviction in the bull case.
Zanidatamab GEA potential
The bull case for Jazz Pharmaceuticals is anchored to a successful launch of zanidatamab for gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (GEA), with a Street high target of $275.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JAZZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$224.66
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$105.00
+114.0% from the low
52-Week High
$243.32
-7.7% from the high
1 Month
-2.13%
3 Month
+24.50%
YTD
+29.7%
1 Year
+107.6%
3Y CAGR
+20.6%
5Y CAGR
+4.9%
10Y CAGR
+4.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JAZZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.9x
vs 7.8x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.6%
vs +9.4% median
+3% above peer median
Net Margin
0.7%
vs -3.7% median
+118% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JAZ JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $14.1B | 8.9x | +9.6% | 0.7% | Buy | +14.6% |
SUP SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $2.6B | 17.8x | +10.2% | -3.7% | Buy | +35.2% |
PCR PCRX Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | $878M | 7.8x | +9.4% | 1.3% | Hold | +43.3% |
INV INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $1.7B | 6.3x | +20.6% | 118.9% | Buy | +64.5% |
AVN AVNS Avanos Medical, Inc. | $1.2B | 24.9x | +1.0% | -9.7% | Hold | -7.8% |
PRG PRGO Perrigo Company plc | $1.4B | 4.8x | +1.2% | -43.5% | Hold | +253.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JAZZ Dividend and Capital Return
JAZZ returns 0.9% annually — null% through dividends and 0.9% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$125M
Estimated Shares Retired
556.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
63M
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsJAZZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 43 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $257, implying +14.6% from the current price of $225. The bear case scenario is $68 and the bull case is $142.
02What is the JAZZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JAZZ is $257 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $307 (+36.7% from today), and the low-end target is $229 (+1.9%). The base case model target is $108.
03Is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
JAZZ trades at 8.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JAZZ in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory Risks — Jazz Pharmaceuticals disclosed 47 risk factors, with the majority concentrated in the Legal & Regulatory category, indicating significant exposure to compliance and litigation challenges. (2) Product Diversification Risk — While Jazz has diversified across sleep, epilepsy, and oncology, reliance on multiple therapeutic areas still carries execution and market adoption risks. (3) Financial Guidance Uncertainty — The company's 2026 financial guidance introduces potential volatility if execution fails to meet projected earnings targets. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JAZZ will report consensus revenue of $4.9B (+9.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.70 (+1401.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) report its next earnings?
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $6.18 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, JAZZ has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc generate?
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.1%. JAZZ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($125M TTM).