Upside case
Bull case
$173+28.2%
LDOS would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 3x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 27 covering LDOS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$204
+51.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$47 – $173
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.0B
LDOS price targets
Three scenarios for where LDOS stock could go
Current
~$135
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $135
Bear
$47
Base
$157
Bull
$173
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$157+16.5%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$47-65.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push LDOS down roughly 65% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Leidos Holdings, Inc.
LDOS · NYSETechnologyInformation Technology ServicesJanuary year-end
Leidos is a large government technology contractor providing IT services and solutions primarily to U.S. defense, intelligence, and civilian agencies. It generates revenue through three main segments — Defense Solutions (~60% of revenue), Civil (~25%), and Health (~15%) — delivering systems integration, cybersecurity, logistics, and data analytics services. The company's moat lies in its deep security clearances, long-term government contracts, and specialized expertise in classified national security work that creates high barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$17.0B
Revenue TTM
$17.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
8.2%
LDOS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+18.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.21/$2.66
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.05/$2.71
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.76/$2.61
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.13/$2.88
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.21/$2.66 | +20.7% | $4.3B/$4.2B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.05/$2.71 | +12.5% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.76/$2.61 | +5.7% | $4.2B/$4.3B | -2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.13/$2.88 | +8.7% | $4.4B/$4.3B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.8B
+2.7% YoY
FY2
$18.7B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.08
+8.8% YoY
FY2
$12.97
+7.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.9B
FCF Margin: 10.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LDOS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LDOS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
National Security Solutions
57.7%
+3.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
100.0%
+2.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
National Security Solutions is the largest disclosed segment at 57.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.4% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 2.5% YoY.
LDOS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $277 — implies +85.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
85.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LDOS
12.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
52% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
LDOS
12.1x
vs
Technology
27.5x
56% discount
vs LDOS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.1x
vs
5Y Average
29.1x
58% discount
Forward PE
11.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-40%
Technology
21.7x
-47%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-52%
Technology
27.5x
-56%
5Y Avg
29.1x
-58%
PEG Ratio
0.59x
S&P 500
1.75x
-66%
Technology
1.47x
-60%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-41%
Technology
17.4x
-48%
5Y Avg
13.9x
-35%
Price/FCF
10.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-51%
Technology
19.8x
-47%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-32%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-68%
Technology
2.4x
-59%
5Y Avg
1.1x
-10%
Dividend Yield
1.18%
S&P 500
1.88%
-37%
Technology
1.18%
+0%
5Y Avg
1.24%
-5%
| Metric | LDOS | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg LDOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.4x | 19.1x-40% | 21.7x-47% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.1x | 25.2x-52% | 27.5x-56% | 29.1x-58% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.59x | 1.75x-66% | 1.47x-60% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0x | 15.3x-41% | 17.4x-48% | 13.9x-35% |
| Price/FCF | 10.5x | 21.3x-51% | 19.8x-47% | 15.5x-32% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-68% | 2.4x-59% | 1.1x-10% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.18% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 1.24% |
LDOS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLDOS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LDOS generates $1.9B in free cash flow at a 10.7% margin — 17.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.7%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
5.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$944M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.59
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
14.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
126M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLDOS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Government Contract Reliance
Leidos is heavily reliant on U.S. government contracts, making it vulnerable to changes in government spending priorities and potential budget shutdowns. Delays in the U.S. budget process can lead to delayed awards, slow payments, and disrupted programs.
High Risk
Acquisition Integration Risks
The acquisition of Entrust for $2.4 billion introduces significant integration, execution, and financing risks. Large acquisitions can be complex, costly, and time-consuming, potentially impacting financial performance.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities
As a contractor working on sensitive government systems, Leidos faces substantial cybersecurity risks. A serious cybersecurity incident could damage its reputation, contract wins, and customer trust.
Medium
Contract Execution Challenges
Leidos faces risks in executing complex and fixed-price contracts, which increase exposure to cost overruns due to underestimated labor needs, technical problems, supplier issues, or schedule slips.
Medium
Talent Acquisition Difficulties
Securing cleared talent is challenging and time-consuming for Leidos, which can impact project execution. Additionally, government contractors face intense audit and regulatory scrutiny, with adverse audits potentially leading to suspended payments or lower billing rates.
Medium
Inflationary Cost Pressures
Leidos may face inflationary pressures that modest annual escalators in multi-year bids may not fully offset. This could impact profit margins and overall financial performance.
Lower
International Revenue Exposure
Approximately 8% of Leidos' revenue is tied to international contracts, which are subject to currency fluctuations and foreign regulatory requirements. This exposure could affect financial stability.
Lower
Competitive Market Landscape
Leidos operates in a competitive market, particularly in cybersecurity and AI, facing competition from companies like L3Harris Technologies, General Dynamics, and Lockheed Martin. Increased competition could pressure pricing and market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LDOS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Analyst Confidence
A significant majority of analysts have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating on LDOS, indicating strong market confidence. This consensus suggests substantial upside potential for the stock.
Positive Earnings Performance
Leidos has consistently beaten earnings expectations, as shown in its most recent Q4 2025 report. The company has also raised its guidance and dividends, reflecting confidence in its future performance.
Strategic Investments in Growth Markets
Leidos is focusing on growth markets such as defense technology and energy, which are expected to enhance its mid-term outlook. The emphasis on national security and defense modernization is anticipated to drive robust revenue growth.
Healthy Financial Position
The company demonstrates strong free cash flow generation and stable margins, with a modest debt-to-equity ratio compared to peers. This financial health supports its ability to invest in growth and return capital to shareholders.
Government Spending Tailwinds
Increased multi-year government funding for national security, defense, and infrastructure serves as a significant tailwind for Leidos. This funding is expected to bolster the company's revenue and growth prospects.
Technological Innovation Focus
Leidos specializes in innovative software and services, particularly in cyber security, which are in high demand within the defense sector. This focus positions the company well to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LDOS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$134.90
52W Range Position
7%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$129.35
+4.3% from the low
52-Week High
$205.77
-34.4% from the high
1 Month
-15.41%
3 Month
-30.10%
YTD
-26.5%
1 Year
-12.8%
3Y CAGR
+19.5%
5Y CAGR
+5.4%
10Y CAGR
+10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LDOS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.4x
vs 17.2x median
-34% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.7%
vs +7.0% median
-61% below peer median
Net Margin
8.2%
vs 6.4% median
+29% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LDO LDOS Leidos Holdings, Inc. | $17.0B | 11.4x | +2.7% | 8.2% | Buy | +51.2% |
SAI SAIC Science Applications International Corporation | $4.2B | 9.3x | -1.6% | 4.9% | Hold | +3.3% |
BAH BAH Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | $12.9B | 12.6x | +8.1% | 7.3% | Hold | +27.4% |
CAC CACI CACI International Inc | $11.0B | 17.7x | +9.8% | 5.9% | Buy | +45.3% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $118.5B | 17.2x | +5.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +23.5% |
RTX RTX RTX Corporation | $238.0B | 25.5x | +7.0% | 8.0% | Buy | +27.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LDOS Dividend and Capital Return
LDOS returns capital mainly through $944M/year in buybacks (5.6% buyback yield), with a modest 1.18% dividend — combining for 6.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 7 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.6%
Dividend Yield
1.18%
Payout Ratio
14.5%
How LDOS Splits Its Return
Div 1.18%
Buyback 5.6%
Dividend 1.18%Buybacks 5.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.59
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.2%
5Y Div CAGR
3.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$944M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
126M
At 5.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.63 | +5.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | $1.54 | +5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $1.46 | +1.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $1.44 | +2.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsLDOS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $204, implying +51.2% from the current price of $135. The bear case scenario is $47 and the bull case is $173.
02What is the LDOS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LDOS is $204 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $220 (+63.1% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (+37.1%). The base case model target is $157.
03Is Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) stock overvalued in 2026?
LDOS trades at 11.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LDOS in 2026 are: (1) Government Contract Reliance — Leidos is heavily reliant on U. (2) Acquisition Integration Risks — The acquisition of Entrust for $2. (3) Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities — As a contractor working on sensitive government systems, Leidos faces substantial cybersecurity risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LDOS will report consensus revenue of $17.8B (+2.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.08 (+8.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.7B in revenue.
06When does Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LDOS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Leidos Holdings, Inc. generate?
Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) generated $1.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.7%. LDOS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($944M TTM).