Upside case
Bull case
$1044+105.0%
LMT would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering LMT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$635
+24.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$522 – $1044
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $117.3B
LMT price targets
Three scenarios for where LMT stock could go
Current
~$509
Confidence
75 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $509
Bear
$522
Base
$679
Bull
$1044
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$679+33.5%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$522+2.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push LMT down roughly 3% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lockheed Martin Corporation
LMT · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense contractor that designs, manufactures, and sustains advanced technology systems for military and government customers. It generates revenue primarily through long-term government contracts across four segments: Aeronautics (~40%), Missiles and Fire Control (~20%), Rotary and Mission Systems (~25%), and Space (~15%). The company's moat stems from its deep expertise in classified defense technologies, entrenched relationships with the U.S. Department of Defense, and the high barriers to entry in the defense contracting industry.
Market Cap
$117.3B
Revenue TTM
$75.1B
Net Income TTM
$4.8B
Net Margin
6.4%
LMT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$7.29/$6.52
Revenue
$18.2B/$18.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.95/$6.38
Revenue
$18.6B/$18.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.80/$7.07
Revenue
$20.3B/$18.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.44/$6.74
Revenue
$18.0B/$18.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $7.29/$6.52 | +11.8% | $18.2B/$18.6B | -2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.95/$6.38 | +8.9% | $18.6B/$18.6B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.80/$7.07 | -18.0% | $20.3B/$18.7B | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.44/$6.74 | -4.5% | $18.0B/$18.2B | -1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$78.9B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$82.8B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$26.92
+29.8% YoY
FY2
$28.68
+6.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.7B
FCF Margin: 7.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LMT beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
LMT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $75.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aeronautics
40.3%
+5.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aeronautics is the largest disclosed segment at 40.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
LMT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $643 — implies +25.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
25.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LMT
23.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
6% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
LMT
23.7x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
8% discount
vs LMT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.7x
vs
5Y Average
19.8x
+20% premium
Forward PE
17.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-11%
Industrials
20.7x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-6%
Industrials
25.7x
-8%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+20%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+5%
Industrials
13.7x
+17%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+16%
Price/FCF
17.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-19%
Industrials
21.2x
-20%
5Y Avg
18.1x
-6%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-50%
Industrials
1.6x
-1%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-5%
Dividend Yield
2.65%
S&P 500
1.87%
+42%
Industrials
1.27%
+109%
5Y Avg
2.69%
-1%
| Metric | LMT | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg LMT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.0x | 19.1x-11% | 20.7x-18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.7x | 25.1x | 25.7x | 19.8x+20% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0x | 15.2x | 13.7x+17% | 13.8x+16% |
| Price/FCF | 17.0x | 21.1x-19% | 21.2x-20% | 18.1x |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-50% | 1.6x | 1.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.65% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 2.69% |
LMT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLMT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LMT 23.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 5.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$75.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
9.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$20.74
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$17.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
74.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (23.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
2.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$13.50
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
62.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
230M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageLMT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
U.S. Government Contract Dependence
Lockheed Martin derives about 72% of its 2025 revenue from U.S. government contracts. A shift in federal defense policy, budget cuts, or a contract termination—especially a termination for convenience—could materially depress earnings and cash flow.
High Risk
F‑35 Program Concentration
The F‑35 fighter jet program accounts for roughly 27% of total consolidated sales in 2025. Funding reductions, production delays, or performance issues in this program could significantly erode revenue and margin.
Medium
Geopolitical & Defense Spending Risk
While rising global tensions can boost demand, sudden geopolitical de-escalation—such as a U.S.–Iran ceasefire—could cut defense budgets and delay procurement, reducing future contract flow.
Medium
Supply Chain Vulnerability
Lockheed Martin relies on a global supply chain that is exposed to semiconductor shortages, cost spikes, and geopolitical disruptions. Counterfeit parts or supply gaps could delay production and increase costs.
Medium
Fixed‑Price Contract Risk
The company’s fixed‑price development and production contracts expose it to cost overruns and margin compression. Past “reach‑forward” losses illustrate the potential for unexpected losses on such contracts.
Medium
Technology & Competitive Risk
Rapid tech evolution and competition in advanced fighter programs pose a threat. The loss of the NGAD contract to Boeing highlights the risk of falling behind in next‑generation defense platforms.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LMT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Backlog of $179 Billion in Contracted Revenue
Lockheed Martin's backlog exceeds $179 B, providing clear visibility for future sales across multi‑year aircraft orders, missile programs, and sustainment contracts. This robust pipeline supports consistent revenue generation and cushions against market volatility.
F‑35 Upgrade Cycle Drives Revenue
The F‑35 fighter jet is entering a significant upgrade cycle, expected to enhance capabilities and generate additional revenue. Other key programs such as PAC‑3, THAAD, and hypersonic systems also contribute to growth.
Margin Improvement via Cost Controls
Analysts project margin expansion as Lockheed Martin tightens risk management, implements cost controls, and leverages digital transformation. Higher‑volume programs and operating leverage are expected to further lift profitability.
Strong Financial Performance and Returns
The company has shown robust revenue growth with recent quarterly increases and a high return on equity, reflecting effective capital management. Lockheed Martin also delivers shareholder value through dividends and stock repurchases.
Strategic Importance Reduces Market Sensitivity
As a critical defense contractor, Lockheed Martin is deemed strategically indispensable, making it less vulnerable to broader market sentiment or economic downturns. This strategic positioning supports long‑term stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LMT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$509.02
52W Range Position
35%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$410.11
+24.1% from the low
52-Week High
$692.00
-26.4% from the high
1 Month
-20.20%
3 Month
-16.44%
YTD
+2.4%
1 Year
+7.9%
3Y CAGR
+3.8%
5Y CAGR
+5.7%
10Y CAGR
+7.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LMT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.0x
vs 25.0x median
-32% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs +6.1% median
-17% below peer median
Net Margin
6.4%
vs 8.0% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $117.3B | 17.0x | +5.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +24.8% |
RTX RTX RTX Corporation | $232.8B | 25.0x | +7.0% | 8.0% | Buy | +30.1% |
NOC NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | $79.3B | 20.0x | +3.4% | 10.8% | Buy | +30.9% |
GD GD General Dynamics Corporation | $94.4B | 21.2x | +6.1% | 8.1% | Buy | +17.1% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $176.9B | 4835.8x | +14.0% | 2.5% | Buy | +17.5% |
LHX LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $56.5B | 26.1x | +4.6% | 7.7% | Buy | +16.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LMT Dividend and Capital Return
LMT returns 5.2% total yield, led by a 2.65% dividend, raised 23 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 2.6%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.6%
Dividend Yield
2.65%
Payout Ratio
62.4%
How LMT Splits Its Return
Div 2.65%
Buyback 2.6%
Dividend 2.65%Buybacks 2.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$13.50
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.4%
5Y Div CAGR
6.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
230M
At 2.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $13.35 | +4.7% | 2.7% | 5.5% |
| 2024 | $12.75 | +4.9% | 3.2% | 5.8% |
| 2023 | $12.15 | +6.6% | 5.3% | 8.0% |
| 2022 | $11.40 | +7.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsLMT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $635, implying +24.8% from the current price of $509. The bear case scenario is $522 and the bull case is $1044.
02What is the LMT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LMT is $635 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $700 (+37.5% from today), and the low-end target is $517 (+1.6%). The base case model target is $679.
03Is Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) stock overvalued in 2026?
LMT trades at 17.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LMT in 2026 are: (1) U.S. Government Contract Dependence — Lockheed Martin derives about 72% of its 2025 revenue from U. (2) F‑35 Program Concentration — The F‑35 fighter jet program accounts for roughly 27% of total consolidated sales in 2025. (3) Geopolitical & Defense Spending Risk — While rising global tensions can boost demand, sudden geopolitical de-escalation—such as a U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lockheed Martin Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LMT will report consensus revenue of $78.9B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $26.92 (+29.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $82.8B in revenue.
06When does Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LMT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lockheed Martin Corporation generate?
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) generated $5.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.5%. LMT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).