Upside case
Bull case
$465+77.9%
LNG would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 27 covering LNG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$265
+1.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$17 – $465
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $54.9B
LNG price targets
Three scenarios for where LNG stock could go
Current
~$261
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $261
Bear
$17
Base
$361
Bull
$465
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$361+38.1%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$17-93.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push LNG down roughly 94% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cheniere Energy, Inc.
LNG · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Cheniere Energy is a leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure company that owns and operates major LNG export terminals in the United States. It makes money primarily through long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements — which provide stable contracted revenue — along with natural gas marketing and pipeline operations. The company's key advantage is its first-mover position as America's largest LNG exporter, with strategically located Gulf Coast terminals that benefit from low-cost domestic natural gas supplies.
Market Cap
$54.9B
Revenue TTM
$19.7B
Net Income TTM
$5.3B
Net Margin
27.0%
LNG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+75.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.57/$2.81
Revenue
$5.4B/$4.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$7.30/$2.49
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.75/$2.91
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$10.71/$3.80
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.57/$2.81 | -44.1% | $5.4B/$4.7B | +15.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.30/$2.49 | +193.2% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.75/$2.91 | +63.2% | $4.4B/$4.6B | -2.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.71/$3.80 | +181.8% | $5.5B/$5.6B | -3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.9B
+10.9% YoY
FY2
$24.0B
+9.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$26.56
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$33.31
+25.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.8B
FCF Margin: 24.3%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.22
Expected Revenue
$5.7B
LNG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
LNG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $15.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Liquefied Natural Gas
94.9%
-23.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Liquefied Natural Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 94.9% of FY 2024 revenue, down 23.5% YoY.
LNG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $335 — implies +24.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LNG
10.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
57% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
LNG
10.8x
vs
Energy
16.9x
36% discount
vs LNG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.8x
vs
5Y Average
13.5x
20% discount
Forward PE
17.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-8%
Energy
13.2x
+33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-57%
Energy
16.9x
-36%
5Y Avg
13.5x
-20%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-26%
Energy
8.1x
+39%
5Y Avg
8.1x
+39%
Price/FCF
22.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+5%
Energy
14.1x
+58%
5Y Avg
12.2x
+83%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-11%
Energy
1.6x
+79%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+41%
Dividend Yield
0.78%
S&P 500
1.88%
-58%
Energy
2.97%
-74%
5Y Avg
0.82%
-4%
| Metric | LNG | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.5x | 19.1x | 13.2x+33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.8x | 25.2x-57% | 16.9x-36% | 13.5x-20% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3x | 15.3x-26% | 8.1x+39% | 8.1x+39% |
| Price/FCF | 22.3x | 21.3x | 14.1x+58% | 12.2x+83% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x-11% | 1.6x+79% | 2.0x+41% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.78% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 0.82% |
LNG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLNG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LNG generates $4.8B in free cash flow at a 24.3% margin — 10.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$24.80
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$27.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.6× FCF
~5.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
46.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
5.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
210M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageLNG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical Supply Disruption
Tensions in key transit chokepoints—such as the Strait of Hormuz—can halt LNG flows, while conflicts like the Russia‑Ukraine war have already triggered global energy crises. Sanctions, trade disputes, or piracy risks can block maritime routes, directly reducing export volumes and inflating prices.
High Risk
Market Price Volatility
LNG prices are tightly linked to oil and gas benchmarks (TTF, NBP, Henry Hub) and suffer from limited derivative liquidity, making hedging difficult. A looming glut of uncontracted capacity is expected to depress spot prices, potentially eroding contract margins.
High Risk
Capital‑Intensive Contract Risk
Projects require long‑term financing for terminals, shipping, and infrastructure, exposing firms to cost overruns from material tariffs and labor shortages. Sellers may abandon delivery contracts in favor of higher spot prices during tight supply, while uncontracted LNG sold to the spot market can drive prices below economic return thresholds.
Medium
Regulatory & Environmental Compliance
Increasing scrutiny over methane emissions and air/water pollution can trigger fines or operational shutdowns. New EU regulations threaten to curtail a significant portion of gas imports, and the broader decarbonization push adds transitional risk to LNG projects.
Medium
Operational & Weather‑Related Risks
Hurricanes on the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts can cause force‑majeure events, raising insurance costs and disrupting liquefaction or regasification facilities. Cybersecurity threats and natural disasters also pose operational challenges that can delay production.
Medium
Competitive & Decarbonization Pressure
Renewable energy sources are becoming cheaper, increasing competition for LNG as a bridge fuel. Market concentration in production and consumption makes the sector vulnerable to supply disruptions in any single region, amplifying competitive headwinds.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LNG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Growing Global Demand for LNG
Emerging Asian markets, heavy industry, and transport are expected to drive overall global LNG demand. The rise of artificial intelligence and data centers is boosting electricity demand that can be met by natural gas power generation. LNG is becoming the primary method for long‑distance natural gas trade.
LNG as a Clean Transition Fuel
LNG burns cleaner than coal and petroleum products, positioning it as a short‑ to medium‑term solution while renewable energy scales up. Its lower emissions make it an attractive option for meeting global energy demand during the energy transition.
US Export Capacity Expansion by 2028
The United States is significantly expanding its LNG export capacity with several large projects under construction. These projects are set to increase US export capacity substantially by 2028, positioning the US to become the largest LNG exporter globally.
Advances in Floating LNG (FLNG) Technology
FLNG technology offers a more cost‑effective and faster way to bring LNG projects online compared to onshore facilities. Companies specializing in FLNG are well positioned for growth as the industry adopts this technology.
Company‑Specific Growth Opportunities
Cheniere Energy is experiencing strong earnings growth and has a high percentage of capacity secured by long‑term contracts. Golar LNG is highlighted for its leadership in FLNG technology and expanding EBITDA, making it a potential growth opportunity.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LNG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$261.42
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$186.70
+40.0% from the low
52-Week High
$300.89
-13.1% from the high
1 Month
-7.97%
3 Month
+22.67%
YTD
+32.2%
1 Year
+11.5%
3Y CAGR
+20.5%
5Y CAGR
+26.6%
10Y CAGR
+22.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LNG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.5x
vs 41.9x median
-58% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.9%
vs +9.6% median
+13% above peer median
Net Margin
27.0%
vs 19.6% median
+38% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNG LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. | $54.9B | 17.5x | +10.9% | 27.0% | Buy | +1.5% |
CQP CQP Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | $31.0B | 15.0x | -1.8% | 22.5% | Sell | +17.1% |
NEX NEXT NextDecade Corporation | $2.0B | — | — | — | Hold | -6.3% |
GLN GLNG Golar LNG Limited | $5.7B | 68.8x | +25.1% | 16.7% | Buy | -3.0% |
NFE NFE New Fortress Energy Inc. | $211M | — | +1.6% | -122.6% | Buy | +1962.8% |
DFD DFDV DeFi Development Corp. | $125M | — | +17.7% | 932.6% | — | +455.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LNG Dividend and Capital Return
LNG returns capital mainly through $2.7B/year in buybacks (5.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.78% dividend — combining for 5.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.0%
Dividend Yield
0.78%
Payout Ratio
8.5%
How LNG Splits Its Return
Div 0.78%
Buyback 5.0%
Dividend 0.78%Buybacks 5.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
210M
At 5.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.11 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.06 | +13.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% |
| 2024 | $1.80 | +11.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | $1.62 | +17.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $1.39 | +319.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsLNG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $265, implying +1.5% from the current price of $261. The bear case scenario is $17 and the bull case is $465.
02What is the LNG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LNG is $265 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $340 (+30.1% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (-15.8%). The base case model target is $361.
03Is Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) stock overvalued in 2026?
LNG trades at 17.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LNG in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical Supply Disruption — Tensions in key transit chokepoints—such as the Strait of Hormuz—can halt LNG flows, while conflicts like the Russia‑Ukraine war have already triggered global energy crises. (2) Market Price Volatility — LNG prices are tightly linked to oil and gas benchmarks (TTF, NBP, Henry Hub) and suffer from limited derivative liquidity, making hedging difficult. (3) Capital‑Intensive Contract Risk — Projects require long‑term financing for terminals, shipping, and infrastructure, exposing firms to cost overruns from material tariffs and labor shortages. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LNG will report consensus revenue of $21.9B (+10.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $26.56 (+7.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.0B in revenue.
06When does Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) report its next earnings?
Cheniere Energy, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $4.22 and revenue of $5.7B. Over recent quarters, LNG has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cheniere Energy, Inc. generate?
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) generated $4.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.3%. LNG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($2.7B TTM).