Upside case
Bull case
$252+11.1%
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing LNG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 27 covering LNG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$272
+20.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$121 – $252
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $47.6B
LNG price targets
Three scenarios for where LNG stock could go
Current
~$227
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $227
Bear
$121
Base
$191
Bull
$252
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$191-15.7%
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
$121-46.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push LNG down roughly 47% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cheniere Energy, Inc.
LNG · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Cheniere Energy is a leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure company that owns and operates major LNG export terminals in the United States. It makes money primarily through long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements — which provide stable contracted revenue — along with natural gas marketing and pipeline operations. The company's key advantage is its first-mover position as America's largest LNG exporter, with strategically located Gulf Coast terminals that benefit from low-cost domestic natural gas supplies.
Market Cap
$47.6B
Revenue TTM
$21.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
7.0%
LNG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+33.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$7.30/$2.49
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.75/$2.91
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$10.71/$3.80
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-16.65/$4.25
Revenue
$5.9B/$5.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $7.30/$2.49 | +193.2% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.75/$2.91 | +63.2% | $4.4B/$4.6B | -2.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.71/$3.80 | +181.8% | $5.5B/$5.6B | -3.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $-16.65/$4.25 | -491.8% | $5.9B/$5.7B | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.9B
+8.9% YoY
FY2
$24.4B
+6.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.77
+68.0% YoY
FY2
$19.14
+62.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.5B
FCF Margin: 21.5%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.89
Expected Revenue
$4.8B
LNG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
LNG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $15.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Liquefied Natural Gas
94.9%
-23.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Liquefied Natural Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 94.9% of FY 2024 revenue, down 23.5% YoY.
LNG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $832 — implies +266.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
266.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LNG
9.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
62% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
LNG
9.4x
vs
Energy
15.5x
39% discount
vs LNG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.4x
vs
5Y Average
13.5x
30% discount
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Energy
12.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-62%
Energy
15.5x
-39%
5Y Avg
13.5x
-30%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-32%
Energy
7.8x
+31%
5Y Avg
8.1x
+27%
Price/FCF
19.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-7%
Energy
13.8x
+40%
5Y Avg
12.2x
+58%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-22%
Energy
1.4x
+71%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+22%
Dividend Yield
0.90%
S&P 500
1.91%
-53%
Energy
3.47%
-74%
5Y Avg
0.82%
+10%
| Metric | LNG | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 12.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.4x | 24.4x-62% | 15.5x-39% | 13.5x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3x | 15.2x-32% | 7.8x+31% | 8.1x+27% |
| Price/FCF | 19.3x | 20.7x | 13.8x+40% | 12.2x+58% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-22% | 1.4x+71% | 2.0x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.90% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 0.82% |
LNG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLNG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LNG generates $4.5B in free cash flow at a 21.5% margin — 10.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
21.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$27.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.6%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
5.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
210M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLNG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Global supply glut
A global supply glut in late 2026 poses a risk to spot margins for Cheniere Energy, potentially impacting profitability.
Medium
Long-term contract reliance
While Cheniere's long-term contracts provide a margin of safety, over-reliance on them could limit flexibility in a volatile market.
Lower
Market competition
As the leading LNG producer in the U.S., Cheniere faces increasing competition from other global players, which could pressure margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LNG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Undervalued infrastructure stock
Cheniere Energy ranks among undervalued infrastructure stocks with a trailing P/E of 12.33 and forward P/E of 15.77, indicating potential upside.
Bullish analyst coverage
Raymond James and other analysts highlight recent developments that strengthen the bull case for Cheniere Energy, making it a compelling buy.
Strong market position
Cheniere Energy is a leader in the LNG market, with its shares trading at $219.01, reflecting investor confidence in its growth prospects.
Positive investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses on platforms like Substack emphasize Cheniere Energy's potential, driven by its infrastructure and market opportunities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LNG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$227.03
52W Range Position
35%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$186.70
+21.6% from the low
52-Week High
$300.89
-24.5% from the high
1 Month
-8.36%
3 Month
-14.72%
YTD
+14.8%
1 Year
-3.4%
3Y CAGR
+15.1%
5Y CAGR
+22.2%
10Y CAGR
+20.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LNG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 33.1x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+8.9%
vs +8.5% median
+4% above peer median
Net Margin
7.0%
vs -73.3% median
+110% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNG LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. | $47.6B | — | +8.9% | 7.0% | Buy | +20.0% |
CQP CQP Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | $28.1B | 14.8x | +9.1% | 22.2% | Sell | +29.2% |
NEX NEXT NextDecade Corporation | $1.9B | — | — | — | Hold | -4.8% |
GLN GLNG Golar LNG Limited | $5.0B | 51.4x | +7.9% | 30.1% | Buy | +26.4% |
NFE NFE New Fortress Energy Inc. | $124M | — | +8.0% | -168.8% | Buy | +3421.1% |
DFD DFDV DeFi Development Corp. | $91M | — | +596.6% | -1136.4% | Buy | +730.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LNG Dividend and Capital Return
LNG returns capital mainly through $2.7B/year in buybacks (5.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.90% dividend — combining for 6.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.7%
Dividend Yield
0.90%
Payout Ratio
8.5%
How LNG Splits Its Return
Div 0.90%
Buyback 5.7%
Dividend 0.90%Buybacks 5.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
210M
At 5.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.11 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.06 | +13.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% |
| 2024 | $1.80 | +11.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | $1.62 | +17.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $1.39 | +319.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsLNG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $272, implying +20.0% from the current price of $227. The bear case scenario is $121 and the bull case is $252.
02What is the LNG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LNG is $272 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+32.1% from today), and the low-end target is $236 (+4.0%). The base case model target is $191.
03Is Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for LNG is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LNG in 2026 are: (1) Global supply glut — A global supply glut in late 2026 poses a risk to spot margins for Cheniere Energy, potentially impacting profitability. (2) Long-term contract reliance — While Cheniere's long-term contracts provide a margin of safety, over-reliance on them could limit flexibility in a volatile market. (3) Market competition — As the leading LNG producer in the U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LNG will report consensus revenue of $22.9B (+8.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.77 (+68.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.4B in revenue.
06When does Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) report its next earnings?
Cheniere Energy, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.89 and revenue of $4.8B. Over recent quarters, LNG has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cheniere Energy, Inc. generate?
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) generated $4.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.5%. LNG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($2.7B TTM).