Upside case
Bull case
$87+50.4%
CQP would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewSellUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Sell
Covering
18
analysts
3 bullish · 10 bearish · 18 covering CQP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
5
Sell
10
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+29.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$42 – $87
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.1B
CQP price targets
Three scenarios for where CQP stock could go
Current
~$58
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $58
Bear
$42
Base
$66
Bull
$87
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$66+14.1%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$42-28.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push CQP down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.
CQP · AMEXEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Cheniere Energy Partners is a master limited partnership that owns and operates the Sabine Pass LNG terminal — one of the largest natural gas liquefaction and export facilities in the United States. It generates revenue primarily through long-term, fee-based contracts for liquefaction services — where customers pay fixed fees regardless of LNG market prices — supplemented by some variable fees tied to LNG volumes. Its key advantage is its first-mover position in U.S. LNG exports, with strategically located infrastructure on the Gulf Coast that connects abundant domestic natural gas supplies to global markets.
Market Cap
$28.1B
Revenue TTM
$11.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
22.2%
CQP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.96
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.81/$1.02
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.38/$1.11
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.23/$1.15
Revenue
$3.6B/$2.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.96 | -5.2% | $2.5B/$2.7B | -7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.81/$1.02 | -20.6% | $2.4B/$2.6B | -6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.38/$1.11 | +114.4% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.23/$1.15 | +7.0% | $3.6B/$2.9B | +24.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.4B
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$13.1B
+5.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.79
+11.1% YoY
FY2
$6.47
+11.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.0B
FCF Margin: 26.6%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.95
Expected Revenue
$2.7B
CQP beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
CQP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $8.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Liquefied Natural Gas
97.7%
-10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Liquefied Natural Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 97.7% of FY 2024 revenue, down 10.2% YoY.
CQP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $281 — implies +384.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
384.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CQP
9.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
62% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
CQP
9.4x
vs
Energy
15.5x
39% discount
vs CQP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.4x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
21% discount
Forward PE
14.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-21%
Energy
12.5x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-62%
Energy
15.5x
-39%
5Y Avg
12.0x
-21%
PEG Ratio
0.44x
S&P 500
1.66x
-74%
Energy
0.52x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-34%
Energy
7.8x
+27%
5Y Avg
9.8x
+1%
Price/FCF
10.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-47%
Energy
13.8x
-21%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+15%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-16%
Energy
1.4x
+84%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+12%
Dividend Yield
7.35%
S&P 500
1.91%
+284%
Energy
3.47%
+112%
5Y Avg
9.08%
-19%
| Metric | CQP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg CQP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.8x | 18.8x-21% | 12.5x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.4x | 24.4x-62% | 15.5x-39% | 12.0x-21% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.44x | 1.66x-74% | 0.52x-16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 15.2x-34% | 7.8x+27% | 9.8x |
| Price/FCF | 10.9x | 20.7x-47% | 13.8x-21% | 9.5x+15% |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-16% | 1.4x+84% | 2.3x+12% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.35% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 9.08% |
CQP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCQP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CQP generates $3.0B in free cash flow at a 26.6% margin — 18.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.21
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$201M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.8× FCF
~4.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.3%
Dividend
7.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.26
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
69.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
484M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCQP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Overvaluation risk
Cheniere Energy Partners LP is currently overvalued by 16.02% based on relative valuation methods, with a fair price range of $44.62 to $54.47 compared to the current price of $63.19.
Medium
Distribution guidance risk
The full-year distribution guidance of $3.10-$3.40 per common unit, with a $3.10 base, may not meet income-focused investor expectations if market conditions deteriorate.
Lower
Contracted LNG offtake dependency
The company's financial performance is heavily reliant on contracted LNG offtake at Sabine Pass, exposing it to potential contract renegotiations or cancellations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CQP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong distribution guidance
Cheniere Energy Partners offers a full-year distribution guidance of $3.10-$3.40 per common unit, appealing to income-focused investors.
Contracted LNG offtake
The company's revenue stability is supported by contracted LNG offtake agreements at Sabine Pass.
Attractive valuation metrics
With a P/E of 14.16x and a 12-month target of $60.43, CQP presents a compelling valuation case.
Long-term growth potential
The 2030 base case target of $358.05 indicates significant long-term upside potential for investors.
Clean energy demand
Cheniere Partners provides clean, secure, and affordable LNG, aligning with global demand for sustainable energy solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CQP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$58.05
52W Range Position
40%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$49.53
+17.2% from the low
52-Week High
$70.64
-17.8% from the high
1 Month
-9.76%
3 Month
-8.58%
YTD
+7.5%
1 Year
+2.7%
3Y CAGR
+7.8%
5Y CAGR
+6.0%
10Y CAGR
+7.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CQP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.8x
vs 32.1x median
-54% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +8.5% median
+7% above peer median
Net Margin
22.2%
vs 6.6% median
+236% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CQP CQP Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | $28.1B | 14.8x | +9.1% | 22.2% | Sell | +29.2% |
LNG LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. | $47.6B | — | +8.9% | 7.0% | Buy | +20.0% |
NFE NFE New Fortress Energy Inc. | $124M | — | +8.0% | -168.8% | Buy | +3421.1% |
NEX NEXT NextDecade Corporation | $1.9B | — | — | — | Hold | -4.8% |
GLN GLNG Golar LNG Limited | $5.0B | 51.4x | +7.9% | 30.1% | Buy | +26.4% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $64.5B | 12.8x | +11.1% | 6.2% | Buy | +22.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CQP Dividend and Capital Return
CQP returns 7.3% total yield, led by a 7.35% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
7.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
7.35%
Payout Ratio
69.1%
How CQP Splits Its Return
Div 7.35%
Dividend 7.35%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.26
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-5.3%
5Y Div CAGR
5.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
484M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.29 | -5.1% | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| 2024 | $3.47 | -16.7% | 0.0% | 8.7% |
| 2023 | $4.16 | +7.2% | 0.0% | 12.1% |
| 2022 | $3.88 | +45.9% | 0.0% | 9.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsCQP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) is rated Sell by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 10 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +29.2% from the current price of $58. The bear case scenario is $42 and the bull case is $87.
02What is the CQP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CQP is $75 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+29.2% from today), and the low-end target is $75 (+29.2%). The base case model target is $66.
03Is Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) stock overvalued in 2026?
CQP trades at 14.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CQP in 2026 are: (1) Overvaluation risk — Cheniere Energy Partners LP is currently overvalued by 16. (2) Distribution guidance risk — The full-year distribution guidance of $3. (3) Contracted LNG offtake dependency — The company's financial performance is heavily reliant on contracted LNG offtake at Sabine Pass, exposing it to potential contract renegotiations or cancellations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CQP will report consensus revenue of $12.4B (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.79 (+11.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.1B in revenue.
06When does Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) report its next earnings?
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.95 and revenue of $2.7B. Over recent quarters, CQP has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. generate?
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) generated $3.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.6%. CQP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).