Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing LUMN more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
28
analysts
4 bullish · 7 bearish · 28 covering LUMN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
17
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$7
-23.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
LUMN price targets
Three scenarios for where LUMN stock could go
Current
~$9
Confidence
30 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lumen Technologies, Inc.
LUMN · NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesDecember year-end
Lumen Technologies is a telecommunications infrastructure company that provides fiber-optic network services to businesses and residential customers across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through its Business segment — offering enterprise-grade connectivity, cloud services, and security solutions — and its Mass Markets segment providing residential broadband and voice services. The company's key advantage is its extensive fiber network footprint — one of the largest in the U.S. — which creates significant infrastructure barriers to entry for competitors.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$12.1B
Net Income TTM
-$1.7B
Net Margin
-14.3%
LUMN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-12.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.13/$-0.29
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.03/$-0.24
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.20/$-0.31
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.23/$-0.21
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.13/$-0.29 | +55.2% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.03/$-0.24 | +87.5% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.20/$-0.31 | +35.5% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.23/$-0.21 | +209.5% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.3B
-8.5% YoY
FY2
$10.5B
-7.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.49
+14.7% YoY
FY2
$-1.38
+7.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.4B
FCF Margin: 44.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LUMN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LUMN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Business Segment
79.8%
-4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Business Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 79.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 4.5% YoY.
LUMN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $6 — implies -40.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
40.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LUMN
-5.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
121% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
LUMN
-5.3x
vs
Communication Services
15.0x
135% discount
vs LUMN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.3x
vs
5Y Average
6.6x
180% discount
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Communication Services
13.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
-121%
Communication Services
15.0x
-135%
5Y Avg
6.6x
-180%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Communication Services
0.74x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-33%
Communication Services
8.4x
+22%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+41%
Price/FCF
25.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+22%
Communication Services
11.8x
+118%
5Y Avg
7.5x
+244%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Communication Services
1.0x
-22%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+80%
Dividend Yield
0.01%
S&P 500
1.87%
-99%
Communication Services
3.45%
-100%
5Y Avg
4.73%
-100%
| Metric | LUMN | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg LUMN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 13.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.3x | 25.1x-121% | 15.0x-135% | 6.6x-180% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.74x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2x | 15.2x-33% | 8.4x+22% | 7.3x+41% |
| Price/FCF | 25.6x | 21.1x+22% | 11.8x+118% | 7.5x+244% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 1.0x-22% | 0.4x+80% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.01% | 1.87% | 3.45% | 4.73% |
LUMN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLUMN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
LUMN earns 2.6% operating margin on regulated earnings, 0.0% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-6.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
2.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-14.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.74
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
2.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-79.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageLUMN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
Lumen carries a substantial debt of approximately $18.7 billion as of Q1 2024. This high leverage limits financial flexibility, hindering growth investments and market responsiveness.
High Risk
Declining Legacy Revenue
The company is experiencing a 5% year-over-year decline in revenue from legacy products as of Q1 2024. If growth in newer areas does not accelerate, Lumen could face further revenue erosion.
High Risk
Profitability Challenges
Lumen reported a net loss of $263 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to high interest expenses from its debt load. This ongoing struggle with profitability poses a significant risk to financial stability.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
Lumen faces significant cybersecurity risks, including potential cyberattacks and data breaches. Such incidents could result in substantial financial penalties and reputational damage.
Medium
Competition
The telecommunications sector is highly competitive, with Lumen facing price competition from large providers. Operating margins on newer services may be lower than traditional offerings, impacting profitability.
Medium
Divestiture Uncertainty
The pending divestiture of the Mass Markets fiber-to-the-home business introduces operational uncertainty. This could strain stakeholder relationships and impact credit ratings and strategic objectives.
Lower
Macroeconomic Factors
Economic slowdowns can affect enterprise spending on technology and communication services, directly impacting demand for Lumen's offerings. This could curtail revenue streams and profitability.
Lower
AI Valuation Concerns
While Lumen aims to benefit from AI-driven demand for data infrastructure, broader market concerns about AI stock valuations could lead to volatility in Lumen's stock price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LUMN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Network Modernization and AI Demand
Lumen is positioning itself as a data supply chain for AI, offering Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals that allow hyperscalers to lease large volumes of fiber capacity for their AI and cloud infrastructure. This strategy aims to monetize its fiber network by providing high-margin, long-term contracts for services like connecting GPU clusters across the US.
Divestiture of Legacy Assets
The sale of its Mass Markets fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T has simplified Lumen's operations, reduced debt, and improved cash flow predictability. This allows the company to refocus on its core long-haul fiber backbone and higher-growth digital networking services.
Financial Improvements
The divestiture has led to a reduced debt burden, pushed out maturities, and lowered interest expenses, with approximately $500 million in annual interest expense removed. A new $825 million revolving credit facility also shores up liquidity.
Network as a Service (NaaS) Adoption
Lumen's NaaS platform is gaining traction, serving over 1,500 enterprise customers and showing growth in its 'Grow' revenue bucket, which includes dark fiber and connectivity solutions.
Undervalued Stock Potential
Some analyses suggest that Lumen's stock is undervalued, with a potential fair value of $10.00 per share, implying an undervaluation of about 13% at the current price. Another DCF analysis indicated a fair value of around $14.47, suggesting potential undervaluation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LUMN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$9.23
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$3.37
+173.9% from the low
52-Week High
$11.95
-22.8% from the high
1 Month
+39.22%
3 Month
+48.15%
YTD
+20.0%
1 Year
+118.2%
3Y CAGR
+59.4%
5Y CAGR
-6.3%
10Y CAGR
-10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LUMN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 12.9x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
-8.5%
vs +0.4% median
-2266% below peer median
Net Margin
-14.3%
vs -6.2% median
-130% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LUM LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $9.5B | — | -8.5% | -14.3% | Hold | -23.3% |
FYB FYBR Frontier Communications Parent, Inc. | $9.6B | — | +0.4% | -6.2% | Buy | -10.8% |
OOM OOMA Ooma, Inc. | $508M | 14.5x | +9.4% | 2.4% | Buy | -3.5% |
ATU ATUS Altice USA, Inc. | $539M | — | -3.6% | -21.8% | Buy | +32.3% |
WOW WOW WideOpenWest, Inc. | $446M | — | -6.4% | -13.2% | Hold | — |
T T AT&T Inc. | $181.1B | 11.2x | +1.4% | 16.9% | Hold | +13.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LUMN Dividend and Capital Return
LUMN does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.01%
Payout Ratio
—
How LUMN Splits Its Return
Div 0.01%
Dividend 0.01%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-89.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-75.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.75 | -25.0% | 3.8% | 18.6% |
| 2021 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 7.5% | 15.6% |
| 2020 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5% |
| 2019 | $1.00 | -53.7% | 0.0% | 7.8% |
| 2018 | $2.16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsLUMN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $7, implying -23.3% from the current price of $9.
02What is the LUMN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LUMN is $7 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $8 (-13.3% from today), and the low-end target is $6 (-35.0%).
03Is Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for LUMN is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LUMN in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — Lumen carries a substantial debt of approximately $18. (2) Declining Legacy Revenue — The company is experiencing a 5% year-over-year decline in revenue from legacy products as of Q1 2024. (3) Profitability Challenges — Lumen reported a net loss of $263 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to high interest expenses from its debt load. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lumen Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LUMN will report consensus revenue of $11.3B (-8.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.49 (+14.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.5B in revenue.
06When does Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LUMN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lumen Technologies, Inc. generate?
Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) generated $5.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 44.9%. LUMN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).