Upside case
Bull case
$33+28.3%
T would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 3x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
AT&T Inc. (T) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
62
analysts
27 bullish · 5 bearish · 62 covering T
Strong Buy
1
Buy
26
Hold
30
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$29
+13.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $33
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $181.1B
T price targets
Three scenarios for where T stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $26
Base
$25
Bull
$33
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$25-4.5%
This is close to how the market is already pricing T — at roughly 11x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AT&T Inc.
T · NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesDecember year-end
AT&T is a major telecommunications company providing wireless, broadband, and enterprise connectivity services across the United States and Latin America. It generates revenue primarily from wireless services (~60% of total), broadband internet, and business solutions including cloud and security services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive nationwide wireless network infrastructure and fiber footprint, which create significant switching costs for customers and high barriers to entry for competitors.
Market Cap
$181.1B
Revenue TTM
$126.5B
Net Income TTM
$21.4B
Net Margin
16.9%
T Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.54/$0.53
Revenue
$30.8B/$30.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.54/$0.54
Revenue
$30.7B/$30.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.52/$0.46
Revenue
$33.5B/$32.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.55
Revenue
$31.5B/$31.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.54/$0.53 | +1.9% | $30.8B/$30.5B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54/$0.54 | +0.6% | $30.7B/$30.9B | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.52/$0.46 | +12.4% | $33.5B/$32.9B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57/$0.55 | +3.3% | $31.5B/$31.2B | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$128.3B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$129.7B
+1.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.71
-11.1% YoY
FY2
$2.90
+7.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.6B
FCF Margin: 8.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
T beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
T Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $125.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wireless Service
55.8%
+3.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
95.7%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Wireless Service is the largest disclosed segment at 55.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.0% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 95.7%, up 2.9% YoY.
T Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $27 — implies +4.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
T
8.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
66% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
T
8.5x
vs
Communication Services
15.0x
43% discount
vs T 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.5x
vs
5Y Average
9.7x
12% discount
Forward PE
11.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Communication Services
13.0x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-66%
Communication Services
15.0x
-43%
5Y Avg
9.7x
-12%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Communication Services
0.74x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-51%
Communication Services
8.4x
-11%
5Y Avg
9.8x
-24%
Price/FCF
9.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-56%
Communication Services
11.8x
-21%
5Y Avg
9.9x
-6%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-54%
Communication Services
1.0x
+48%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+21%
Dividend Yield
4.39%
S&P 500
1.87%
+135%
Communication Services
3.45%
+27%
5Y Avg
6.83%
-36%
| Metric | T | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.2x | 19.1x-41% | 13.0x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.5x | 25.1x-66% | 15.0x-43% | 9.7x-12% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.74x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.2x-51% | 8.4x-11% | 9.8x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 9.3x | 21.1x-56% | 11.8x-21% | 9.9x |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-54% | 1.0x+48% | 1.2x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.39% | 1.87% | 3.45% | 6.83% |
T trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolT Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
T earns 19.4% operating margin on regulated earnings, 4.4% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$126.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.05
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$18.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$155.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
14.7× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (6.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.9%
Dividend
4.4%
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
7.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Burden & Cash Outflows
AT&T and Verizon carry significant debt loads that constrain financial flexibility, especially in a high‑interest‑rate environment. Substantial cash outflows for dividends, debt service, and other financing activities further strain capital resources.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
Increasing cyberattacks pose a major risk, potentially causing equipment or network failures, data loss, operational disruptions, and reputational damage. Companies struggle to keep pace with evolving threats, which can lead to costly outages.
High Risk
Market Saturation
The telecom market is highly saturated, limiting growth opportunities and exerting downward pressure on pricing. This constraint can reduce returns on assets and compress profit margins.
Medium
Regulatory Hurdles
Evolving regulations around network supply chains, digital divide, and vulnerable customer support can raise compliance costs and slow the deployment of new services. Regulatory delays may impede technological transitions.
Medium
Data Leakages
Incidents of data leakage can cost companies billions and tarnish reputation. The high financial impact of such breaches makes this a significant risk.
Lower
Inflationary Pressures
Rising costs for network components, devices, labor, and distribution can erode margins and increase operating expenses. While impactful, this risk is less acute than debt or cyber threats.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why T Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Focus on Core Telecoms
AT&T has divested media assets and is concentrating on its wireless and broadband businesses. The company is implementing cost‑saving measures, targeting significant run‑rate cost savings by mid‑2026, which should lift profitability.
5G and Fiber Network Expansion
Investments in 5G and fiber are key growth drivers. AT&T Fiber reached over 9.3 million customers in 2024, increasing market share and network efficiency.
Robust Dividend and Shareholder Returns
AT&T offers a substantial dividend yield and plans to return capital through dividends and share repurchases. The dividend payout ratio is considered sustainable, making it attractive to income‑focused investors.
Debt Reduction and Free Cash Flow Growth
The company is targeting a lower net leverage ratio and expects falling capital expenditures after the 5G investment cycle to boost free cash flow. This cash can be used for debt repayment and shareholder returns.
Execution Catalysts and Market Recognition
Continued execution on growth strategies, market recognition of operational improvements, successful deleveraging, and sustained pricing power are key catalysts for upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
T Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$25.93
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.95
+13.0% from the low
52-Week High
$29.79
-13.0% from the high
1 Month
-8.45%
3 Month
-5.07%
YTD
+5.6%
1 Year
-5.8%
3Y CAGR
+14.8%
5Y CAGR
+1.4%
10Y CAGR
-1.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
T vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.2x
vs 8.5x median
+31% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs +0.4% median
+272% above peer median
Net Margin
16.9%
vs 11.6% median
+45% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T T AT&T Inc. | $181.1B | 11.2x | +1.4% | 16.9% | Hold | +13.5% |
VZ VZ Verizon Communications Inc. | $199.7B | 9.6x | +2.6% | 12.4% | Hold | +8.9% |
TMU TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. | $210.3B | 18.5x | +5.2% | 11.6% | Buy | +30.7% |
LUM LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $9.5B | — | -8.5% | -14.3% | Hold | -23.3% |
CHT CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. | $20.0B | 3.8x | +0.4% | 9.4% | Buy | +75.3% |
CMC CMCSA Comcast Corporation | $96.4B | 7.5x | -1.0% | 14.8% | Buy | +20.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
T Dividend and Capital Return
T returns 6.9% total yield, led by a 4.39% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.5%
Dividend Yield
4.39%
Payout Ratio
37.4%
How T Splits Its Return
Div 4.39%
Buyback 2.5%
Dividend 4.39%Buybacks 2.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-6.4%
5Y Div CAGR
-11.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
174M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
7.0B
At 2.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.11 | 0.0% | 2.5% | 7.1% |
| 2024 | $1.11 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | $1.11 | -17.9% | 0.2% | 6.8% |
| 2022 | $1.35 | -35.0% | 0.6% | 7.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AT&T Inc. (T) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AT&T Inc. (T) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 30 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $29, implying +13.5% from the current price of $26.
02What is the T stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for T is $29 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $33 (+27.3% from today), and the low-end target is $26 (+0.3%). The base case model target is $25.
03Is AT&T Inc. (T) stock overvalued in 2026?
T trades at 11.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AT&T Inc. (T) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for T in 2026 are: (1) Debt Burden & Cash Outflows — AT&T and Verizon carry significant debt loads that constrain financial flexibility, especially in a high‑interest‑rate environment. (2) Cybersecurity Threats — Increasing cyberattacks pose a major risk, potentially causing equipment or network failures, data loss, operational disruptions, and reputational damage. (3) Market Saturation — The telecom market is highly saturated, limiting growth opportunities and exerting downward pressure on pricing. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AT&T Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates T will report consensus revenue of $128.3B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.71 (-11.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $129.7B in revenue.
06When does AT&T Inc. (T) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for T is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does AT&T Inc. generate?
AT&T Inc. (T) generated $10.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.4%. T returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.4% yield) and share repurchases ($4.5B TTM).