Upside case
Bull case
$71-78.6%
The bull case prices MDB at 12x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
36 bullish · 2 bearish · 44 covering MDB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
6
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$409
+22.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$34 – $71
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
54.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.8B
MDB price targets
Three scenarios for where MDB stock could go
Current
~$333
Confidence
75 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $333
Bear
$34
Base
$54
Bull
$71
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$54-83.7%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$34-89.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 49x multiple contraction could push MDB down roughly 90% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MongoDB, Inc.
MDB · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJanuary year-end
MongoDB is a modern database platform company that offers a flexible, document-based database system as an alternative to traditional relational databases. It generates revenue primarily through its cloud-based MongoDB Atlas service — which accounts for over 60% of total revenue — along with its on-premise Enterprise Advanced licenses and professional services. The company's key advantage is its developer-friendly document model that enables faster application development and its first-mover position in the NoSQL database market.
Market Cap
$26.8B
Revenue TTM
$2.6B
Net Income TTM
-$29M
Net Margin
-1.1%
MDB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+59.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.67
Revenue
$591M/$554M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.32/$0.81
Revenue
$628M/$594M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.65/$1.48
Revenue
$695M/$670M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.32/$1.19
Revenue
$688M/$665M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.00/$0.67 | +49.3% | $591M/$554M | +6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.32/$0.81 | +64.0% | $628M/$594M | +5.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.65/$1.48 | +11.5% | $695M/$670M | +3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.32/$1.19 | +10.9% | $688M/$665M | +3.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.0B
+15.7% YoY
FY2
$3.5B
+15.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.31
+1027.0% YoY
FY2
$3.01
-9.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$600M
FCF Margin: 23.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MDB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MDB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $2.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
MongoDB Atlas Related
73.4%
+28.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
60.8%
+23.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
MongoDB Atlas Related is the largest disclosed segment at 73.4% of FY 2026 revenue, up 28.7% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 60.8%, up 23.4% YoY.
MDB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $494 — implies +48.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
48.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MDB
-378.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
1647% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MDB
-378.1x
vs
Technology
29.0x
1404% discount
vs MDB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-378.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
54.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+189%
Technology
22.3x
+144%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-378.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-1647%
Technology
29.0x
-1404%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
53.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+159%
Technology
19.2x
+179%
5Y Avg
114.6x
-53%
Price/Sales
10.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+251%
Technology
2.4x
+345%
5Y Avg
16.1x
-33%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MDB | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MDB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 54.4x | 18.8x+189% | 22.3x+144% | — |
| Trailing PE | -378.1x | 24.4x-1647% | 29.0x-1404% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | 53.5x | 20.7x+159% | 19.2x+179% | 114.6x-53% |
| Price/Sales | 10.9x | 3.1x+251% | 2.4x+345% | 16.1x-33% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
MDB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMDB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MDB generates $600M in free cash flow at a 23.0% margin — returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
72.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-4.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-1.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$600M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-4.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-1.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-4.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$400M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
80M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMDB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation premium
MongoDB's current stock price trades at a premium to its intrinsic value midpoint, indicating limited margin of safety.
High Risk
Competitive pressures
As a NoSQL database provider, MongoDB faces intense competition from other database solutions and managed services.
Medium
AI integration risks
The MongoDB AI Applications Program (MAAP) aims to reduce integration risk, but AI adoption remains uncertain and complex.
Medium
Revenue concentration
MongoDB Atlas, its fully managed service, drives significant revenue, making the company reliant on its continued growth.
Lower
Product adoption risks
While MongoDB offers free tools like Compass, broader adoption depends on developer preference and market trends.
Lower
Regulatory and operational risks
Disclosure of 67 risk factors highlights potential regulatory, operational, and execution challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MDB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Atlas subscription growth
MongoDB Atlas is driving strong subscription growth, improving customer metrics, and contributing to significant stock price appreciation.
Recurring revenue strength
The company benefits from strong recurring revenue streams, particularly from its fully managed MongoDB Atlas service.
Advanced Atlas features
MongoDB Atlas offers advanced functionality like auto-scaling, full-text search, and multi-cloud data distribution, enhancing its value proposition.
AI adoption upside
MongoDB is well-positioned to capitalize on AI adoption, with Atlas serving as a key platform for intelligent app development.
Document database leadership
MongoDB's NoSQL document database with JSON-like BSON format provides flexibility and scalability, appealing to modern application developers.
Free tool adoption
The availability of free tools like MongoDB Compass lowers barriers to entry and fosters broader developer adoption of the platform.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MDB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$332.75
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$196.00
+69.8% from the low
52-Week High
$444.72
-25.2% from the high
1 Month
+0.83%
3 Month
+23.92%
YTD
-16.7%
1 Year
+63.0%
3Y CAGR
-4.3%
5Y CAGR
-2.8%
10Y CAGR
+26.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MDB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
54.4x
vs 23.3x median
+133% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.7%
vs +15.9% median
-1% below peer median
Net Margin
-1.1%
vs 21.1% median
-105% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDB MDB MongoDB, Inc. | $26.8B | 54.4x | +15.7% | -1.1% | Buy | +22.9% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $79.4B | 91.9x | +18.2% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.7% |
EST ESTC Elastic N.V. | $6.1B | 23.3x | +9.2% | 21.1% | Buy | +6.6% |
SNO SNOW Snowflake Inc. | $80.5B | 120.5x | +19.7% | -23.8% | Buy | +21.5% |
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $530.1B | 22.9x | +15.9% | 25.4% | Buy | +37.5% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $2.82T | 22.6x | +8.8% | 39.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MDB Dividend and Capital Return
MDB returns 1.5% annually — null% through dividends and 1.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$400M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
80M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsMDB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $409, implying +22.9% from the current price of $333. The bear case scenario is $34 and the bull case is $71.
02What is the MDB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MDB is $409 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $515 (+54.8% from today), and the low-end target is $315 (-5.3%). The base case model target is $54.
03Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) stock overvalued in 2026?
MDB trades at 54.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MDB in 2026 are: (1) Valuation premium — MongoDB's current stock price trades at a premium to its intrinsic value midpoint, indicating limited margin of safety. (2) Competitive pressures — As a NoSQL database provider, MongoDB faces intense competition from other database solutions and managed services. (3) AI integration risks — The MongoDB AI Applications Program (MAAP) aims to reduce integration risk, but AI adoption remains uncertain and complex. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MongoDB, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MDB will report consensus revenue of $3.0B (+15.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.31 (+1027.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.5B in revenue.
06When does MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MDB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does MongoDB, Inc. generate?
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) generated $600M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.0%. MDB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($400M TTM).