Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MDB more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
36 bullish · 2 bearish · 44 covering MDB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
6
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$413
+55.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
45.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.6B
MDB price targets
Three scenarios for where MDB stock could go
Current
~$265
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MongoDB, Inc.
MDB · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJanuary year-end
MongoDB is a modern database platform company that offers a flexible, document-based database system as an alternative to traditional relational databases. It generates revenue primarily through its cloud-based MongoDB Atlas service — which accounts for over 60% of total revenue — along with its on-premise Enterprise Advanced licenses and professional services. The company's key advantage is its developer-friendly document model that enables faster application development and its first-mover position in the NoSQL database market.
Market Cap
$21.6B
Revenue TTM
$2.5B
Net Income TTM
-$71M
Net Margin
-2.9%
MDB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+75.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.67
Revenue
$549M/$528M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.67
Revenue
$591M/$554M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.32/$0.81
Revenue
$628M/$594M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.65/$1.48
Revenue
$695M/$670M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.00/$0.67 | +49.7% | $549M/$528M | +4.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.00/$0.67 | +49.3% | $591M/$554M | +6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.32/$0.81 | +64.0% | $628M/$594M | +5.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.65/$1.48 | +11.5% | $695M/$670M | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.0B
+20.5% YoY
FY2
$3.6B
+22.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.58
+535.0% YoY
FY2
$3.58
+0.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$510M
FCF Margin: 20.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MDB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MDB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
MongoDB Atlas Related
70.0%
+27.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
60.5%
+19.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
MongoDB Atlas Related is the largest disclosed segment at 70.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 27.1% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 60.5%, up 19.4% YoY.
MDB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $328 — implies +24.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MDB
-301.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
1295% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MDB
-301.4x
vs
Technology
27.5x
1197% discount
vs MDB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-301.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
45.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+136%
Technology
21.7x
+107%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-301.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-1295%
Technology
27.5x
-1197%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Technology
17.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
42.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+100%
Technology
19.8x
+116%
5Y Avg
114.3x
-63%
Price/Sales
8.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+180%
Technology
2.4x
+263%
5Y Avg
16.1x
-46%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MDB | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MDB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 45.0x | 19.1x+136% | 21.7x+107% | — |
| Trailing PE | -301.4x | 25.2x-1295% | 27.5x-1197% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 17.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | 42.7x | 21.3x+100% | 19.8x+116% | 114.3x-63% |
| Price/Sales | 8.8x | 3.1x+180% | 2.4x+263% | 16.1x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
MDB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMDB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MDB generates $510M in free cash flow at a 20.7% margin — returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+22.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
71.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-5.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.82
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$510M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-4.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-2.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-4.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$400M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
81M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMDB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risks
MongoDB's stock is currently considered overvalued, with future success largely priced into its share price. This high valuation leaves little room for execution errors, potentially leading to significant declines if performance does not meet expectations.
High Risk
Competition Risks
The company faces intense competition from major tech players like Amazon and Microsoft, which poses a long-term threat to its market position. Additionally, reliance on the Atlas cloud platform exposes MongoDB to consumption-based volatility and competition from hyperscalers.
High Risk
Growth Risks
MongoDB's growth is normalizing, and the stock trades at a premium compared to its peers. A significant drop in revenue growth could lead to growth compression, adversely affecting the stock's valuation.
Medium
Management Risks
Recent leadership transitions in the go-to-market function are being closely monitored, as they pose risks to execution. Analyst concerns suggest that changes in leadership could impact the company's operational effectiveness.
Medium
Sales Growth Risks
There are concerns regarding the pace of growth in cloud consumption, particularly following a recent guidance reset. The unpredictability of multi-year enterprise agreements can limit visibility and impact revenue projections.
Lower
Market Volatility Risks
MongoDB's stock price may be influenced by institutional investors and short sellers, although their current impact is not considered strong. However, stock price volatility remains a concern due to the nature of the tech market.
Lower
Dilution Risks
Future stock issuances could lead to dilution of existing shares, impacting shareholder value. This risk is particularly relevant in the context of financing growth initiatives.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MDB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Sustained Revenue Growth
MongoDB has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a reported increase of approximately 26.8% year-over-year in fiscal year 2026. Its Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 27% year-over-year to $695 million, driven by strong performance in both Atlas and non-Atlas offerings.
MongoDB Atlas as a Growth Engine
MongoDB Atlas generated $438 million in revenue in Q2 FY25, up 27% year-over-year, and accounted for 74% of total revenue. The platform is expanding its reach across industries and regions, broadening the revenue base and improving earnings quality.
Enterprise Adoption and Workload Wins
MongoDB has seen strong customer growth, with nearly 60,000 customers, including a significant number of large enterprises contributing over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR). Notable customer wins include a global automaker and Deutsche Telekom.
AI Integration and Acquisitions
MongoDB has been actively integrating AI capabilities into its platform and has made strategic acquisitions, such as Voyager AI, to enhance its AI offerings. These advancements aim to help AI models locate information within databases more effectively, increasing user trust in AI applications.
Expanding Revenue Streams
The company's focus on AI capabilities and app modernization is expected to expand its revenue streams and improve long-term earnings. Analysts believe that enterprise AI deployments through Atlas are still in their early stages, indicating significant future growth potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MDB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$265.26
52W Range Position
35%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$169.26
+56.7% from the low
52-Week High
$444.72
-40.4% from the high
1 Month
+4.02%
3 Month
-22.97%
YTD
-33.6%
1 Year
+54.0%
3Y CAGR
+2.4%
5Y CAGR
+0.7%
10Y CAGR
+23.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MDB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
45.0x
vs 25.9x median
+73% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+20.5%
vs +11.8% median
+73% above peer median
Net Margin
-2.9%
vs 3.1% median
-192% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDB MDB MongoDB, Inc. | $21.6B | 45.0x | +20.5% | -2.9% | Buy | +55.8% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $46.8B | 67.0x | +23.6% | 3.1% | Buy | +21.5% |
EST ESTC Elastic N.V. | $5.2B | 19.4x | +11.8% | -5.0% | Buy | +71.8% |
SNO SNOW Snowflake Inc. | $47.9B | 78.0x | +29.1% | -28.4% | Buy | +68.0% |
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $557.7B | 25.9x | +6.4% | 25.3% | Buy | +32.6% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.07T | 24.9x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +33.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MDB Dividend and Capital Return
MDB returns 1.8% annually — null% through dividends and 1.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$400M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
81M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsMDB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $413, implying +55.8% from the current price of $265.
02What is the MDB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MDB is $413 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (+88.5% from today), and the low-end target is $300 (+13.1%).
03Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) stock overvalued in 2026?
MDB trades at 45.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MDB in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risks — MongoDB's stock is currently considered overvalued, with future success largely priced into its share price. (2) Competition Risks — The company faces intense competition from major tech players like Amazon and Microsoft, which poses a long-term threat to its market position. (3) Growth Risks — MongoDB's growth is normalizing, and the stock trades at a premium compared to its peers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MongoDB, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MDB will report consensus revenue of $3.0B (+20.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.58 (+535.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.6B in revenue.
06When does MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MDB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does MongoDB, Inc. generate?
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) generated $510M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.7%. MDB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($400M TTM).