Upside case
Bull case
$301+62.1%
ORCL would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
86
analysts
55 bullish · 4 bearish · 86 covering ORCL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
55
Hold
27
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$257
+38.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$152 – $301
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
86
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $533.2B
ORCL price targets
Three scenarios for where ORCL stock could go
Current
~$185
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $185
Bear
$152
Base
$298
Bull
$301
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$298+60.5%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$152-17.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push ORCL down roughly 18% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Oracle Corporation
ORCL · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureMay year-end
Oracle is a global enterprise software and cloud computing company that provides database management systems, enterprise applications, and cloud infrastructure services. It generates revenue primarily through cloud services and license support (~70% of total revenue) and cloud license and on-premise license sales (~20%), with hardware and services making up the remainder. The company's key moat is its entrenched position in enterprise database software—particularly with its flagship Oracle Database—which creates significant switching costs and lock-in for large corporate customers.
Market Cap
$533.2B
Revenue TTM
$64.1B
Net Income TTM
$16.2B
Net Margin
25.3%
ORCL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.70/$1.64
Revenue
$15.9B/$15.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.47/$1.48
Revenue
$14.9B/$15.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.26/$1.64
Revenue
$16.1B/$16.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.79/$1.70
Revenue
$17.2B/$16.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.70/$1.64 | +3.7% | $15.9B/$15.6B | +2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.47/$1.48 | -0.7% | $14.9B/$15.0B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.26/$1.64 | +37.8% | $16.1B/$16.2B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.79/$1.70 | +5.3% | $17.2B/$16.9B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$68.2B
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$82.4B
+20.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.88
+23.7% YoY
FY2
$6.97
+1.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$24.7B
FCF Margin: -38.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ORCL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ORCL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $57.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cloud And License Business
85.8%
+10.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
63.3%
+9.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cloud And License Business is the largest disclosed segment at 85.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.7% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 63.3%, up 9.7% YoY.
ORCL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $127 — implies -26.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ORCL
42.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+70% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ORCL
42.7x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+60% premium
vs ORCL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
42.7x
vs
5Y Average
30.3x
+41% premium
Forward PE
24.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+30%
Technology
22.1x
+12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
42.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+70%
Technology
26.7x
+60%
5Y Avg
30.3x
+41%
PEG Ratio
6.02x
S&P 500
1.72x
+251%
Technology
1.52x
+295%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+73%
Technology
17.5x
+50%
5Y Avg
19.4x
+36%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Technology
19.5x
—
5Y Avg
29.9x
—
Price/Sales
9.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+197%
Technology
2.4x
+280%
5Y Avg
6.2x
+50%
Dividend Yield
0.89%
S&P 500
1.87%
-52%
Technology
1.16%
-23%
5Y Avg
1.32%
-32%
| Metric | ORCL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ORCL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.8x | 19.1x+30% | 22.1x+12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 42.7x | 25.1x+70% | 26.7x+60% | 30.3x+41% |
| PEG Ratio | 6.02x | 1.72x+251% | 1.52x+295% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.3x | 15.2x+73% | 17.5x+50% | 19.4x+36% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 19.5x | 29.9x |
| Price/Sales | 9.3x | 3.1x+197% | 2.4x+280% | 6.2x+50% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.89% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 1.32% |
ORCL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolORCL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ORCL 12.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$64.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
66.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
25.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$24.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-38.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$93.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
56.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (12.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.65
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
38.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageORCL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Cash Flow Risk
Oracle’s non‑current debt surged to $124.7 B by Q3 FY2026, up sharply from the prior year. Free cash flow turned negative at –$24.7 B, and its five‑year CDS spread hit a record high, signaling higher credit risk. The company plans to raise capital via equity and debt, exposing it to financing and deployment delays.
Medium
Backlog Execution Risk
Oracle must deliver on a $553 B RPO backlog while investing ~$50 B in capex for FY2026. Delays in data‑center capacity or scaling issues could compress margins and postpone revenue recognition, undermining growth expectations.
Medium
Legal & Geopolitical Risk
Oracle faces a securities‑fraud class‑action alleging misstatements about its AI strategy and financial health. Additionally, its Abu Dhabi “Stargate” AI data‑center project is flagged as a potential geopolitical target, adding operational and reputational exposure.
Medium
AI Demand & Valuation Risk
Oracle’s stock has surged on AI enthusiasm, trading at a premium above its historical average. The sustainability of this demand is uncertain, and a valuation correction could materially erode share price.
Lower
Competitive Cloud Position
Oracle lags behind AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud in cloud infrastructure, and its developer ecosystem is smaller, limiting organic growth and market share gains.
Lower
Historical Volatility Risk
Oracle’s equity has historically dropped over 40% during market stress periods, indicating significant downside risk during downturns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ORCL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Cloud Growth
Oracle’s cloud revenue hit $8.91 billion in Q3 FY26, a 44% year‑over‑year jump. Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) grew 84% YoY, underscoring the company’s expanding cloud footprint.
Massive Backlog Surge
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) climbed to $553 billion, up 325% YoY, providing multi‑year revenue visibility and evidence of strong customer demand, especially for AI infrastructure.
AI Compute Demand
Oracle is positioned to capture the growing need for AI compute power, with significant expansion in AI infrastructure and multi‑cloud database services, making it a key partner for demanding AI workloads.
Strong Financial Upside
Q3 earnings per share were $1.79, beating estimates, and Oracle has raised its FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion, signaling continued growth momentum.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ORCL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$185.45
52W Range Position
24%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$134.57
+37.8% from the low
52-Week High
$345.72
-46.4% from the high
1 Month
+27.42%
3 Month
+35.88%
YTD
-5.2%
1 Year
+24.2%
3Y CAGR
+24.1%
5Y CAGR
+18.6%
10Y CAGR
+16.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ORCL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.8x
vs 22.1x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.4%
vs +8.8% median
-27% below peer median
Net Margin
25.3%
vs 19.1% median
+32% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $533.2B | 24.8x | +6.4% | 25.3% | Buy | +38.7% |
SAP SAP SAP SE | $200.9B | 23.5x | +8.8% | 19.1% | Buy | +127.2% |
IBM IBM International Business Machines Corporation | $214.8B | 18.4x | +4.9% | 15.6% | Hold | +35.2% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.06T | 24.8x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +34.1% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $95.3B | 22.1x | +18.0% | 12.6% | Buy | +64.7% |
INT INTU Intuit Inc. | $111.2B | 17.2x | +9.4% | 21.6% | Buy | +67.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ORCL Dividend and Capital Return
ORCL returns 1.2% total yield, led by a 0.89% dividend, raised 18 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
0.89%
Payout Ratio
38.1%
How ORCL Splits Its Return
Div 0.89%
Buyback 0.3%
Dividend 0.89%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.65
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
18Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.1%
5Y Div CAGR
14.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.9B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.90 | +18.7% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 2024 | $1.60 | +5.3% | 1.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $1.52 | +18.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% |
| 2022 | $1.28 | +6.7% | 8.7% | 10.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsORCL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Oracle Corporation (ORCL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 86 analysts covering the stock, 55 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 27 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $257, implying +38.7% from the current price of $185. The bear case scenario is $152 and the bull case is $301.
02What is the ORCL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ORCL is $257 based on 86 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $400 (+115.7% from today), and the low-end target is $160 (-13.7%). The base case model target is $298.
03Is Oracle Corporation (ORCL) stock overvalued in 2026?
ORCL trades at 24.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Oracle Corporation (ORCL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ORCL in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Cash Flow Risk — Oracle’s non‑current debt surged to $124. (2) Backlog Execution Risk — Oracle must deliver on a $553 B RPO backlog while investing ~$50 B in capex for FY2026. (3) Legal & Geopolitical Risk — Oracle faces a securities‑fraud class‑action alleging misstatements about its AI strategy and financial health. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Oracle Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ORCL will report consensus revenue of $68.2B (+6.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.88 (+23.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $82.4B in revenue.
06When does Oracle Corporation (ORCL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ORCL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Oracle Corporation generate?
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) had a free cash outflow of $24.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.6%. ORCL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.5B TTM).