Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MP more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MP Materials Corp. (MP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 11 covering MP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$78
+15.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
270.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.1B
MP price targets
Three scenarios for where MP stock could go
Current
~$68
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MP Materials Corp.
MP · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsDecember year-end
MP Materials is a rare earth mining and processing company that operates the Mountain Pass mine — the only active rare earth mining and processing site in the Western Hemisphere. It generates revenue primarily from selling separated rare earth oxides (roughly 80% from neodymium-praseodymium concentrate) to industrial customers and manufacturers. Its key advantage is vertical integration — owning the entire supply chain from mine to separated oxides — and its strategic location providing domestic U.S. rare earth production.
Market Cap
$12.1B
Revenue TTM
$275M
Net Income TTM
-$86M
Net Margin
-31.2%
MP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-5.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.10
Revenue
$61M/$62M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.13/$-0.20
Revenue
$57M/$46M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.10/$-0.17
Revenue
$54M/$53M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.09/$0.06
Revenue
$53M/$76M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.12/$-0.10 | -20.0% | $61M/$62M | -1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.13/$-0.20 | +34.0% | $57M/$46M | +24.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.10/$-0.17 | +42.2% | $54M/$53M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.09/$0.06 | +53.9% | $53M/$76M | -30.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$345M
+25.4% YoY
FY2
$440M
+27.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.33
+23.6% YoY
FY2
$-0.21
+36.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$328M
FCF Margin: -119.1%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.01
Expected Revenue
$75M
MP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $204M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Materials Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Materials Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $6 — implies -90.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
90.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MP
-136.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
642% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
MP
-136.1x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
712% discount
vs MP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-136.1x
vs
5Y Average
73.3x
286% discount
Forward PE
270.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+1315%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+1674%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-136.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-642%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-712%
5Y Avg
73.3x
-286%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Basic Materials
1.17x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Basic Materials
11.0x
—
5Y Avg
29.0x
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Basic Materials
25.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
43.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1304%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+2219%
5Y Avg
18.6x
+136%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Basic Materials
1.32%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MP | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg MP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 270.1x | 19.1x+1315% | 15.2x+1674% | — |
| Trailing PE | -136.1x | 25.1x-642% | 22.3x-712% | 73.3x-286% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 11.0x | 29.0x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 25.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 43.9x | 3.1x+1304% | 1.9x+2219% | 18.6x+136% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.32% | — |
MP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMP Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for MP are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$275M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+35.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
5.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-53.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-31.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$328M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-119.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$123M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-5.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-4.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
178M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Production and Operational Execution
MP Materials is scaling up production capacity with the construction of the 10X Facility for magnet production. Challenges in executing these plans, maintaining operational efficiency, and ensuring product quality could adversely affect financial performance, particularly through maintenance downtime and production delays.
High Risk
Costs and Capital Intensity
The production of rare earth products is capital-intensive, and unanticipated costs or delays in projects like the Fort Worth Facility could materially impact financial condition. Rising production costs, despite revenue growth, pose a significant risk to profitability.
High Risk
Market and Pricing Volatility
Rare earth prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, with broader market dynamics affecting pricing for REEs. Although there is a price floor for NdPr products through a Department of Defense agreement, fluctuations in other REE prices remain a concern.
Medium
Competition and Supply Chain
Increased global supply of rare earth products and predatory pricing by competitors could negatively impact MP Materials' profitability. The emergence of new U.S.-backed competitors may reshape the competitive landscape and funding opportunities.
Medium
Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors
Foreign government policies on rare earth imports and exports, along with foreign exchange rates, can significantly affect reserve estimates and financial results. Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding export constraints with China, are a notable concern.
Medium
Financial Performance and Valuation
MP Materials has reported negative profitability and a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, indicating ongoing losses despite revenue growth. The company's capital expenditure phase leads to negative free cash flow, raising concerns about long-term financial sustainability.
Lower
Dependence on Key Personnel
The success of MP Materials is heavily reliant on key personnel, making the company vulnerable to the loss of essential employees. This dependence could hinder operational execution and strategic initiatives.
Lower
Concentrated Ownership and Future Expansion
Concentrated ownership may complicate future expansion efforts, adding risk to MP Materials' financial outlook. Potential challenges in executing expansion plans could impact growth and investor confidence.
Lower
Short Interest
A significant portion of MP Materials' stock has been sold short, reflecting skeptical investor sentiment regarding its valuation and execution capabilities. However, this situation also presents potential for short squeeze dynamics.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Domestic Supply Chain Security
MP Materials is crucial for the U.S. in securing a domestic supply of rare earth elements, vital for defense, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy technologies. The company has invested significantly to establish a fully domestic rare earth supply chain, reducing reliance on China.
Government Support and Contracts
The company benefits from strong government backing, including a 10-year agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) that includes a price floor on neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) and a $400 million investment. This DoD commitment provides demand visibility and de-risks MP Materials' planned investments in magnet manufacturing.
Vertical Integration and Magnet Production
MP Materials is transitioning from a rare earth concentrate miner to a vertically integrated magnet producer. The company is accelerating the buildout of its '10X Facility' in Texas, which will produce rare earth magnets, expected to drive higher margins and earnings.
Market Demand and Pricing
Demand for rare earths is projected to increase due to the growth of EVs, wind turbines, and advancements in AI. The DoD's price floor commitment for NdPr is expected to significantly increase MP Materials' revenue and stabilize pricing.
Partnership with Apple
MP Materials has established a $500 million partnership with Apple to produce magnets for its devices. This collaboration not only enhances MP's production capabilities but also secures a significant customer in the tech industry.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$68.06
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$18.64
+265.1% from the low
52-Week High
$100.25
-32.1% from the high
1 Month
+33.01%
3 Month
+20.35%
YTD
+23.8%
1 Year
+170.1%
3Y CAGR
+48.8%
5Y CAGR
+16.7%
10Y CAGR
+21.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
270.1x
vs 22.0x median
+1130% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+25.4%
vs +48.2% median
-47% below peer median
Net Margin
-31.2%
vs -124.2% median
+75% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MP MP MP Materials Corp. | $12.1B | 270.1x | +25.4% | -31.2% | Buy | +15.0% |
UUU UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. | $5.0B | — | +48.2% | -124.2% | Buy | +14.4% |
LAC LAC Lithium Americas Corp. | $1.3B | — | — | — | Hold | +26.8% |
NXE NXE NexGen Energy Ltd. | $7.9B | — | — | — | Buy | — |
URG URG Ur-Energy Inc. | $662M | — | +79.4% | -275.3% | Buy | +30.7% |
ALB ALB Albemarle Corporation | $22.9B | 22.0x | -13.1% | -10.7% | Hold | -2.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsMP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MP Materials Corp. (MP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MP Materials Corp. (MP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $78, implying +15.0% from the current price of $68.
02What is the MP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MP is $78 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $90 (+32.2% from today), and the low-end target is $71 (+4.3%).
03Is MP Materials Corp. (MP) stock overvalued in 2026?
MP trades at 270.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MP Materials Corp. (MP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MP in 2026 are: (1) Production and Operational Execution — MP Materials is scaling up production capacity with the construction of the 10X Facility for magnet production. (2) Costs and Capital Intensity — The production of rare earth products is capital-intensive, and unanticipated costs or delays in projects like the Fort Worth Facility could materially impact financial condition. (3) Market and Pricing Volatility — Rare earth prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, with broader market dynamics affecting pricing for REEs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MP Materials Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MP will report consensus revenue of $345M (+25.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.33 (+23.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $440M in revenue.
06When does MP Materials Corp. (MP) report its next earnings?
MP Materials Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.01 and revenue of $75M. Over recent quarters, MP has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MP Materials Corp. generate?
MP Materials Corp. (MP) had a free cash outflow of $328M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 119.1%. MP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).