Upside case
Bull case
$1-98.6%
The bull case prices MP at 4x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
MP Materials Corp. (MP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 12 covering MP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$83
+36.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$0 – $1
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
262.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.8B
MP price targets
Three scenarios for where MP stock could go
Current
~$61
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $61
Bear
$0
Base
$1
Bull
$1
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1-98.9%
At 3x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$0-99.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 260x multiple contraction could push MP down roughly 99% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MP Materials Corp.
MP · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsDecember year-end
MP Materials is a rare earth mining and processing company that operates the Mountain Pass mine — the only active rare earth mining and processing site in the Western Hemisphere. It generates revenue primarily from selling separated rare earth oxides (roughly 80% from neodymium-praseodymium concentrate) to industrial customers and manufacturers. Its key advantage is vertical integration — owning the entire supply chain from mine to separated oxides — and its strategic location providing domestic U.S. rare earth production.
Market Cap
$10.8B
Revenue TTM
$348M
Net Income TTM
-$71M
Net Margin
-20.5%
MP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.13/$-0.20
Revenue
$57M/$46M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.10/$-0.17
Revenue
$54M/$53M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.09/$0.06
Revenue
$53M/$76M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.03/$-0.03
Revenue
$91M/$75M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.13/$-0.20 | +34.0% | $57M/$46M | +24.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.10/$-0.17 | +42.2% | $54M/$53M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.09/$0.06 | +53.9% | $53M/$76M | -30.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.03/$-0.03 | +206.5% | $91M/$75M | +21.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$404M
+16.2% YoY
FY2
$485M
+20.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.19
+46.9% YoY
FY2
$0.06
+133.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$314M
FCF Margin: -90.3%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.02
Expected Revenue
$99M
MP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $204M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Materials Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Materials Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $2 — implies -95.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
95.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MP
-121.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
598% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
MP
-121.8x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
616% discount
vs MP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-121.8x
vs
5Y Average
73.3x
266% discount
Forward PE
262.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+1294%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+1663%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-121.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-598%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-616%
5Y Avg
73.3x
-266%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Basic Materials
11.0x
—
5Y Avg
29.0x
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Basic Materials
29.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
39.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1173%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+1991%
5Y Avg
18.6x
+111%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Basic Materials
1.41%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MP | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg MP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 262.2x | 18.8x+1294% | 14.9x+1663% | — |
| Trailing PE | -121.8x | 24.4x-598% | 23.6x-616% | 73.3x-266% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 11.0x | 29.0x |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 29.0x | — |
| Price/Sales | 39.3x | 3.1x+1173% | 1.9x+1991% | 18.6x+111% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.41% | — |
MP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMP Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for MP are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$348M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+60.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-39.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-20.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$314M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-90.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$123M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-3.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-4.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
178M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Execution risk
MP Materials faces significant execution risk as it scales its magnetics expansion, including the 10X facility targeting 10,000 metric tons annual NdFeB capacity.
Medium
Revenue sensitivity
The company's valuation is highly sensitive to revenue growth and margin changes, with potential downturns impacting DCF-based assessments.
High Risk
Profitability uncertainty
Despite forecasts of 30% annual revenue growth, MP Materials' profitability inflection remains uncertain, with EPS only projected to turn positive in the future.
Lower
Limited risk disclosure
MP Materials disclosed only 2 risk factors in its recent earnings report, potentially underrepresenting operational and market challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Vertical integration strategy
MP Materials is transitioning from a mining operation to a vertically integrated producer, enhancing its market position and supply chain control.
Critical national resource supplier
The company is becoming a key supplier of rare earth materials, which are vital for national security and technology sectors.
Positive 2026 forecast
Analysts project a bullish outlook for 2026, driven by MP Materials' strategic evolution and market opportunities.
Insider ownership changes
Recent Form 4 filings show insider transactions, which can indicate confidence or strategic shifts in the company.
Rare earth materials focus
MP Materials specializes in rare earth specialty materials, a high-demand sector for advanced technologies and green energy solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$60.88
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.58
+105.8% from the low
52-Week High
$100.25
-39.3% from the high
1 Month
+7.43%
3 Month
+5.80%
YTD
+10.8%
1 Year
+63.6%
3Y CAGR
+39.9%
5Y CAGR
+14.6%
10Y CAGR
+19.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
262.2x
vs 13.2x median
+1893% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.2%
vs +10.0% median
+62% above peer median
Net Margin
-20.5%
vs -82.7% median
+75% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MP MP MP Materials Corp. | $10.8B | 262.2x | +16.2% | -20.5% | Buy | +36.3% |
UUU UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. | $4.1B | — | +12.5% | -82.7% | Buy | +34.7% |
LAC LAC Lithium Americas Corp. | $976M | — | +10.0% | — | Hold | +60.2% |
NXE NXE NexGen Energy Ltd. | $7.0B | — | +1.5% | — | Buy | — |
URG URG Ur-Energy Inc. | $596M | — | +10.0% | -297.9% | Buy | +48.0% |
ALB ALB Albemarle Corporation | $18.9B | 13.2x | +5.7% | -4.2% | Hold | +30.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsMP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MP Materials Corp. (MP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MP Materials Corp. (MP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $83, implying +36.3% from the current price of $61. The bear case scenario is $0 and the bull case is $1.
02What is the MP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MP is $83 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+64.3% from today), and the low-end target is $69 (+13.3%). The base case model target is $1.
03Is MP Materials Corp. (MP) stock overvalued in 2026?
MP trades at 262.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MP Materials Corp. (MP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MP in 2026 are: (1) Execution risk — MP Materials faces significant execution risk as it scales its magnetics expansion, including the 10X facility targeting 10,000 metric tons annual NdFeB capacity. (2) Profitability uncertainty — Despite forecasts of 30% annual revenue growth, MP Materials' profitability inflection remains uncertain, with EPS only projected to turn positive in the future. (3) Revenue sensitivity — The company's valuation is highly sensitive to revenue growth and margin changes, with potential downturns impacting DCF-based assessments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MP Materials Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MP will report consensus revenue of $404M (+16.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.19 (+46.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $485M in revenue.
06When does MP Materials Corp. (MP) report its next earnings?
MP Materials Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.02 and revenue of $99M. Over recent quarters, MP has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MP Materials Corp. generate?
MP Materials Corp. (MP) had a free cash outflow of $314M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 90.3%. MP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).