MRK trades 4.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $158.12.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes MRK achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 55.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 38 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 23, 2026, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $158.12, based on estimates from 38 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $150.91, this represents a potential upside of +4.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $372.73B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $105.00 to a high of $180.00, representing a 47% spread in expectations. The median target of $161.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 26 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,11 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, MRK trades at a trailing P/E of 20.7x and forward P/E of 55.0x. The forward PEG ratio of 2.59 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow +113.9% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $135.20, with bear and bull scenarios of $85.18 and $178.14 respectively. Model confidence stands at 55/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PFEPfizer Inc. | $159.2B | $27.93 | $28.50 | +2.0% | Hold | 9.4x | 39 |
 LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.1T | $1170.48 | $1343.07 | +14.7% | Buy | 32.1x | 45 |
 ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $468.8B | $265.32 | $287.08 | +8.2% | Buy | 18.9x | 43 |
 BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $127.1B | $62.25 | $70.00 | +12.4% | Buy | 9.0x | 42 |
 AMGNAmgen Inc. | $221.4B | $410.24 | $393.72 | -4.0% | Buy | 17.8x | 41 |
 JNJJohnson & Johnson | $648.0B | $269.19 | $286.93 | +6.6% | Buy | 23.4x | 40 |
 AZNAstraZeneca PLC | $130.5B | $168.37 | $186.67 | +10.9% | Buy | 16.4x | 41 |
 GSKGSK plc | $101.6B | $50.72 | $60.00 | +18.3% | Hold | 14.1x | 29 |
 NVONovo Nordisk A/S | $175.0B | $39.40 | $44.67 | +13.4% | Buy | 1.8x | 39 |
 GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $189.6B | $152.67 | $150.00 | -1.7% | Buy | — | 58 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MRK stock.
The consensus price target for MRK is $158.12, close to the current price of $150.915 (4.8% implied move). Based on 38 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
MRK has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 38 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 26 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $158.12 implies 4.8% upside from current levels.
At a forward P/E of 54.9541x, MRK trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $158.12 (4.8% upside) suggests analysts may view current valuations as stretched.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $180 for MRK, while the most conservative target is $105. The consensus of $158.12 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $178 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MRK is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 38 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 26 have Buy ratings, 11 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MRK stock forecast based on 38 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $158.12, with estimates ranging from $105 (bear case) to $180 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $135, with bear/bull scenarios of $85/$178.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MRK's fair value at $135 (base case), with a bear case of $85 and bull case of $178. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 55/100.
MRK trades at a forward P/E ratio of 55.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 20.7x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
MRK appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $158.12 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MRK analyst price targets range from $105 to $180, a 47% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $158.12 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $85-$178 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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