Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NET more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
40
analysts
28 bullish · 2 bearish · 40 covering NET
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$216
-11.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
217.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $86.4B
NET price targets
Three scenarios for where NET stock could go
Current
~$244
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cloudflare, Inc.
NET · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Cloudflare operates a global cloud platform that provides security, performance, and reliability services for websites and applications. It generates revenue primarily through subscription-based services — including security solutions (~60% of revenue), performance optimization (~25%), and developer tools — with enterprise customers driving most of its growth. The company's key advantage is its massive global network infrastructure — spanning over 300 cities worldwide — which creates network effects and makes it difficult for competitors to replicate its scale and performance.
Market Cap
$86.4B
Revenue TTM
$2.2B
Net Income TTM
-$102M
Net Margin
-4.7%
NET Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+31.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.16
Revenue
$479M/$469M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.21/$0.18
Revenue
$512M/$501M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.27/$0.23
Revenue
$562M/$545M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.28/$0.27
Revenue
$615M/$591M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.16/$0.16 | -2.3% | $479M/$469M | +2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.21/$0.18 | +14.5% | $512M/$501M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.27/$0.23 | +17.3% | $562M/$545M | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28/$0.27 | +3.2% | $615M/$591M | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.8B
+27.1% YoY
FY2
$3.5B
+25.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.54
+285.9% YoY
FY2
$0.58
+7.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$324M
FCF Margin: 15.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.23
Expected Revenue
$621M
NET beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NET Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
+29.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
49.5%
+26.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 29.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 49.5%, up 26.3% YoY.
NET Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $51 — implies -76.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
76.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NET
-842.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
3457% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NET
-842.9x
vs
Technology
26.7x
3253% discount
vs NET 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-842.9x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
217.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+1041%
Technology
22.1x
+884%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-842.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
-3457%
Technology
26.7x
-3253%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
1012.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+6550%
Technology
17.5x
+5694%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
266.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+1163%
Technology
19.5x
+1264%
5Y Avg
188.2x
+42%
Price/Sales
39.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1174%
Technology
2.4x
+1531%
5Y Avg
22.6x
+77%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NET | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 217.7x | 19.1x+1041% | 22.1x+884% | — |
| Trailing PE | -842.9x | 25.1x-3457% | 26.7x-3253% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 1012.1x | 15.2x+6550% | 17.5x+5694% | — |
| Price/FCF | 266.3x | 21.1x+1163% | 19.5x+1264% | 188.2x+42% |
| Price/Sales | 39.8x | 3.1x+1174% | 2.4x+1531% | 22.6x+77% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
NET trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNET Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
NET generates $324M in free cash flow at a 15.0% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+29.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-4.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.29
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$324M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-4.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$944M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.5× FCF
~8.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-7.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-4.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
353M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageNET Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Internal Financial Reporting Controls
NetApp’s implementation of a new ERP system heightens the risk of material weaknesses or significant deficiencies in its internal financial reporting controls. Such weaknesses could lead to financial misstatements, regulatory sanctions, and a loss of investor confidence. The company’s ability to maintain accurate reporting is critical to its ongoing compliance and market perception.
High Risk
External Storage Market Decline
The external storage market faces a terminal decline as enterprises shift toward public cloud services and cloud providers develop their own data‑management capabilities. This structural shift could erode NetApp’s revenue base and compress margins over the long term. The company’s exposure to this declining market segment represents a significant strategic risk.
High Risk
Reliance on Public Cloud Services
NetApp’s growth is increasingly tied to public cloud adoption, yet competition from cloud providers offering integrated data‑management solutions threatens its market share. A slowdown in cloud migration or aggressive pricing by competitors could reduce demand for NetApp’s hybrid and public cloud offerings. This reliance on a volatile cloud ecosystem poses a high risk to future revenue streams.
High Risk
Stock Price Volatility
NetApp’s share price is subject to sharp swings driven by market sentiment, investor expectations, and the company’s operating results. If earnings fall short of forecasts, the stock could experience a pronounced decline, affecting liquidity and shareholder value. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of the stock to short‑term performance signals.
Medium
Gross Margin Fluctuations
Gross margins may swing due to macroeconomic volatility, competitive pricing pressure, component cost increases, inflation, and foreign exchange movements. Changes in the revenue mix between products, software, and services can further amplify margin variability. Such fluctuations can impact profitability and cash‑flow generation.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
NetApp relies on third‑party contract manufacturers and component suppliers, exposing it to risks of supply chain interruptions. Disruptions could delay product deliveries, increase costs, and impair the company’s ability to meet customer demand. The potential impact on operations and revenue makes this a material risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NET Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Revenue Growth & Customer Acquisition
Cloudflare’s Q4 2025 revenue surged 34%, driven by a growing paying customer base that reached approximately 296,000 customers. New Annual Recurring Revenue (New ARR) has also accelerated, underscoring strong business momentum.
AI & Emerging Technologies
The company is positioned to capture the rise of AI and the “agentic internet,” where AI agents are expected to generate higher traffic volumes. Cloudflare’s security and compute products, such as Workers, are already monetizing AI adoption and serve as critical infrastructure for this digital shift.
Network Effects & Edge Infrastructure
Cloudflare’s global network handles a significant portion of internet traffic, giving it a competitive edge. Its edge‑native architecture delivers cost and performance efficiencies that enable it to compete effectively against hyperscalers.
Enterprise Momentum & Retention
Enterprise customer growth is strong, highlighted by record wins and the signing of the company’s largest-ever contract. Dollar‑Based Net Retention rates have improved, indicating that existing customers are expanding their use of Cloudflare’s services.
Strategic Partnerships & Acquisitions
Recent collaborations, such as the GoDaddy partnership to enable an open agentic web, and acquisitions like Human Native, are expected to enhance revenue growth and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NET Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$244.43
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$120.46
+102.9% from the low
52-Week High
$260.00
-6.0% from the high
1 Month
+15.49%
3 Month
+49.91%
YTD
+24.7%
1 Year
+96.1%
3Y CAGR
+77.0%
5Y CAGR
+25.3%
10Y CAGR
+29.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NET vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
217.7x
vs 35.2x median
+518% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+27.1%
vs +12.9% median
+111% above peer median
Net Margin
-4.7%
vs 2.0% median
-340% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NET NET Cloudflare, Inc. | $86.4B | 217.7x | +27.1% | -4.7% | Buy | -11.5% |
FSL FSLY Fastly, Inc. | $4.6B | 121.3x | +12.9% | -19.5% | Hold | -39.7% |
AKA AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $17.7B | 17.2x | +5.7% | 10.7% | Hold | -5.7% |
BAN BAND Bandwidth Inc. | $1.5B | 26.6x | -9.3% | 2.0% | Buy | -2.8% |
ZS ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $22.7B | 35.2x | +17.7% | -2.3% | Buy | +96.1% |
PAN PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | $129.3B | 49.9x | +15.3% | 13.0% | Buy | +13.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNET Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $216, implying -11.5% from the current price of $244.
02What is the NET stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NET is $216 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+6.4% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (-42.7%).
03Is Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) stock overvalued in 2026?
NET trades at 217.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NET in 2026 are: (1) Internal Financial Reporting Controls — NetApp’s implementation of a new ERP system heightens the risk of material weaknesses or significant deficiencies in its internal financial reporting controls. (2) External Storage Market Decline — The external storage market faces a terminal decline as enterprises shift toward public cloud services and cloud providers develop their own data‑management capabilities. (3) Reliance on Public Cloud Services — NetApp’s growth is increasingly tied to public cloud adoption, yet competition from cloud providers offering integrated data‑management solutions threatens its market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cloudflare, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NET will report consensus revenue of $2.8B (+27.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.54 (+285.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.5B in revenue.
06When does Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) report its next earnings?
Cloudflare, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $621M. Over recent quarters, NET has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cloudflare, Inc. generate?
Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) generated $324M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.0%. NET returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).