Upside case
Bull case
$302+64.0%
PANW would need investors to value it at roughly 82x earnings — about 32x more generous than today's 50x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
86
analysts
63 bullish · 2 bearish · 86 covering PANW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
63
Hold
21
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$208
+13.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $302
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
86
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
49.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $129.3B
PANW price targets
Three scenarios for where PANW stock could go
Current
~$184
Confidence
78 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $184
Base
$184
Bull
$302
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$184+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PANW — at roughly 50x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
PANW · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJuly year-end
Palo Alto Networks is a cybersecurity company that provides a comprehensive platform of security products and services to protect organizations from cyber threats. It generates revenue primarily through subscription services — which account for over 80% of total revenue — along with product sales and support contracts. The company's key advantage is its integrated security platform approach, which creates switching costs and network effects as customers adopt more of its ecosystem.
Market Cap
$129.3B
Revenue TTM
$9.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
13.0%
PANW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-14.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.95/$0.89
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.89
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.50/$0.94
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.03/$0.94
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.95/$0.89 | +7.3% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93/$0.89 | +4.4% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.50/$0.94 | -47.2% | $2.1B/$2.6B | -17.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.03/$0.94 | +9.7% | $2.6B/$2.6B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.4B
+15.3% YoY
FY2
$13.6B
+19.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.28
+82.2% YoY
FY2
$3.67
+11.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.1B
FCF Margin: 41.1%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.81
Expected Revenue
$2.9B
PANW beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PANW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription
53.9%
+18.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
67.3%
+13.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription is the largest disclosed segment at 53.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 18.8% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 67.3%, up 13.2% YoY.
PANW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $224 — implies +23.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
23.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PANW
115.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+358% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
PANW
115.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+330% premium
vs PANW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
115.0x
vs
5Y Average
116.1x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
49.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+162%
Technology
22.1x
+126%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
115.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+358%
Technology
26.7x
+330%
5Y Avg
116.1x
-1%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
80.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+428%
Technology
17.5x
+360%
5Y Avg
76.4x
+5%
Price/FCF
37.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+77%
Technology
19.5x
+91%
5Y Avg
32.0x
+16%
Price/Sales
14.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+349%
Technology
2.4x
+474%
5Y Avg
11.6x
+21%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PANW | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg PANW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 49.9x | 19.1x+162% | 22.1x+126% | — |
| Trailing PE | 115.0x | 25.1x+358% | 26.7x+330% | 116.1x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 80.3x | 15.2x+428% | 17.5x+360% | 76.4x |
| Price/FCF | 37.3x | 21.1x+77% | 19.5x+91% | 32.0x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 14.0x | 3.1x+349% | 2.4x+474% | 11.6x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
PANW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPANW Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PANW generates $4.1B in free cash flow at a 41.1% margin — 17.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
73.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.80
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
41.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
709M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePANW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Palo Alto Networks trades at a high valuation, with investor expectations baked into the price. If growth slows or fails to meet these expectations, the stock could experience sharp volatility and a potential decline in market value.
High Risk
Acquisition Integration Risks
The $25 billion CyberArk acquisition presents significant execution risks. Any integration stumbles could negatively impact financials, erode margins, and shake investor confidence.
High Risk
Dilution Risk
Issuance of additional shares for financing, acquisitions, or incentive plans can dilute existing shareholders’ stakes. This dilution could lower the stock price and reduce earnings per share.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Rivals such as CrowdStrike and Zscaler threaten Palo Alto’s market share and margins. Intense competition could erode pricing power and slow revenue growth.
Medium
AI Disruption & Threats
Rapid AI advancements could weaken demand for traditional security platforms or enable more sophisticated cyberattacks. This dual risk could pressure product relevance and increase security incidents.
Medium
Geopolitical & Regulatory Risks
As a global company, Palo Alto is exposed to geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes. Such events could disrupt operations, supply chains, or market access.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PANW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership & Secular Growth
Palo Alto Networks is the market leader in cybersecurity, benefiting from strong industry tailwinds such as increasing AI‑driven threats and the adoption of zero‑trust architectures. The company is positioned to capture the growing demand for integrated security platforms that protect against evolving cyber risks.
Platformization Strategy Drives Adoption
The company consolidates its offerings into unified platforms—Strata for network security, Prisma for cloud security, and Cortex for security operations—displacing point solutions. This approach wins larger, multi‑year deals and boosts annual recurring revenue (ARR) per customer.
Robust Financials & Cash Generation
Palo Alto Networks has shown consistent revenue growth and strong cash generation, with healthy free cash flow margins. These financial fundamentals support continued earnings and revenue expansion in the coming years.
Strategic AI‑Driven Acquisitions
The firm actively pursues acquisitions in high‑growth areas like AI security, expanding its capabilities and market reach. Integrating AI into its security solutions is seen as a key driver for future growth.
Customer Consolidation Advantage
Enterprises increasingly prefer a single, comprehensive security provider over managing multiple vendors. Palo Alto Networks’ scale and platform offerings position it well to benefit from this consolidation trend.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PANW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$183.98
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$139.57
+31.8% from the low
52-Week High
$223.61
-17.7% from the high
1 Month
+13.65%
3 Month
+18.87%
YTD
+2.6%
1 Year
-2.2%
3Y CAGR
+26.0%
5Y CAGR
+26.5%
10Y CAGR
+22.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PANW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
49.9x
vs 35.2x median
+42% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.3%
vs +17.7% median
-13% below peer median
Net Margin
13.0%
vs -2.3% median
+675% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAN PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | $129.3B | 49.9x | +15.3% | 13.0% | Buy | +13.0% |
FTN FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | $66.9B | 30.2x | +13.2% | 27.3% | Hold | -3.5% |
CRW CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $120.7B | 97.9x | +23.5% | -3.8% | Buy | +10.9% |
ZS ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $22.7B | 35.2x | +17.7% | -2.3% | Buy | +96.1% |
CHK CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. | $12.3B | 11.3x | +4.0% | 38.4% | Hold | +30.9% |
CYB CYBR CyberArk Software Ltd. | $20.6B | 81.9x | +28.5% | -10.8% | Buy | +12.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsPANW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 86 analysts covering the stock, 63 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $208, implying +13.0% from the current price of $184.
02What is the PANW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PANW is $208 based on 86 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $265 (+44.0% from today), and the low-end target is $157 (-14.7%). The base case model target is $184.
03Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) stock overvalued in 2026?
PANW trades at 49.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PANW in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Concerns — Palo Alto Networks trades at a high valuation, with investor expectations baked into the price. (2) Acquisition Integration Risks — The $25 billion CyberArk acquisition presents significant execution risks. (3) Dilution Risk — Issuance of additional shares for financing, acquisitions, or incentive plans can dilute existing shareholders’ stakes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PANW will report consensus revenue of $11.4B (+15.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.28 (+82.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.6B in revenue.
06When does Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) report its next earnings?
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $0.81 and revenue of $2.9B. Over recent quarters, PANW has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Palo Alto Networks, Inc. generate?
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) generated $4.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 41.1%. PANW returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).