Upside case
Bull case
$1441+1087.7%
NTES would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
NetEase, Inc. (NTES) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
26 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 covering NTES
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$149
+23.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$689 – $1441
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $77.5B
NTES price targets
Three scenarios for where NTES stock could go
Current
~$121
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $121
Bear
$689
Base
$1094
Bull
$1441
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1094+801.4%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$689+467.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NTES down roughly 468% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NetEase, Inc.
NTES · NASDAQTechnologyElectronic Gaming & MultimediaDecember year-end
NetEase is a Chinese technology company primarily focused on developing and operating online games, with additional businesses in music streaming and education technology. It generates most of its revenue from online games—primarily through in-game purchases and subscriptions—while its Youdao education segment and Cloud Music streaming service contribute smaller but growing portions. The company's main competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in game development and operation within China's massive gaming market, combined with strong intellectual property portfolios and established user communities.
Market Cap
$77.5B
Revenue TTM
$114.4B
Net Income TTM
$34.1B
Net Margin
29.8%
NTES Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
18%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.07/$2.04
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.07/$2.08
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.57/$2.03
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.53/$2.19
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.07/$2.04 | +1.5% | $3.9B/$4.0B | -2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.07/$2.08 | -0.5% | $4.0B/$4.0B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.57/$2.03 | -22.7% | $3.9B/$4.1B | -4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.53/$2.19 | +15.5% | $4.4B/$4.3B | +4.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$128.5B
+12.4% YoY
FY2
$138.6B
+7.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$61.93
+17.1% YoY
FY2
$67.22
+8.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$50.3B
FCF Margin: 44.0%
Next Earnings
August 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.35
Expected Revenue
$4.4B
NTES beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NTES Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Innovative businesses and others
53.5%
-15.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Innovative businesses and others is the largest disclosed segment at 53.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 15.9% YoY.
NTES Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $200 — implies +65.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
65.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NTES
15.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
36% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NTES
15.7x
vs
Technology
29.0x
46% discount
vs NTES 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.7x
vs
5Y Average
2.6x
+499% premium
Forward PE
1.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-90%
Technology
22.3x
-92%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-36%
Technology
29.0x
-46%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+499%
PEG Ratio
0.66x
S&P 500
1.66x
-60%
Technology
1.51x
-56%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-17%
Technology
16.6x
-24%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+537%
Price/FCF
10.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-48%
Technology
19.2x
-44%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+420%
Price/Sales
4.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+50%
Technology
2.4x
+91%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+624%
Dividend Yield
2.54%
S&P 500
1.91%
+33%
Technology
1.11%
+130%
5Y Avg
13.32%
-81%
| Metric | NTES | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.8x | 18.8x-90% | 22.3x-92% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.7x | 24.4x-36% | 29.0x-46% | 2.6x+499% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.66x | 1.66x-60% | 1.51x-56% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6x | 15.2x-17% | 16.6x-24% | 2.0x+537% |
| Price/FCF | 10.8x | 20.7x-48% | 19.2x-44% | 2.1x+420% |
| Price/Sales | 4.7x | 3.1x+50% | 2.4x+91% | 0.6x+624% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 13.32% |
NTES trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNTES Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NTES generates $50.3B in free cash flow at a 44.0% margin — 24.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$114.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
65.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
33.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$52.88
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$50.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
44.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$51.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$45.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.5%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$622M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$20.83
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
638M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNTES Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Growth slowdown
Bear case scenario projects growth slowing to +3% if international expansion fails and core franchises decline.
High Risk
Stock price decline
AI models forecast a -0.5% decline in stock price to $120.47 by 2026, indicating potential underperformance.
Medium
International expansion risks
Failure in international push could limit growth opportunities and diversify revenue streams.
Medium
Franchise fatigue
Risk of core gaming franchises losing popularity, impacting long-term revenue stability.
Lower
Regulatory risks
Operating in China exposes NetEase to potential regulatory changes impacting internet and gaming sectors.
Lower
Competitive pressures
Intense competition in gaming and internet services could erode market share and margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NTES Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Leading global game developer
NetEase is a top developer and publisher of video games across multiple genres and platforms, with a strong presence in China and globally.
Diverse gaming ecosystem
The company operates a wide range of popular and long-running mobile and PC games, supported by cross-platform login capabilities.
Strong growth potential
Analysts project a bull case 10-year CAGR of +10% if NetEase successfully expands into broader entertainment and strengthens its international presence.
Favorable demographic trends
Gen Z's increasing gaming engagement supports NetEase's growth, as the company capitalizes on this demographic shift.
Premium content focus
NetEase's strategy centers around high-quality content, which drives user engagement and monetization across its gaming and internet services.
International expansion opportunities
The company's push into global markets, including titles like Naraka Bladepoint, presents significant upside if execution is successful.
Analyst bullish sentiment
Wall Street analysts provide a consensus Buy rating with a $148 price target, implying a 27% upside potential.
Diversified internet services
Beyond gaming, NetEase operates in news aggregation, music streaming, advertising, and e-commerce, providing multiple revenue streams.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NTES Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$121.33
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$106.06
+14.4% from the low
52-Week High
$159.55
-24.0% from the high
1 Month
+6.80%
3 Month
+3.70%
YTD
-17.8%
1 Year
-5.7%
3Y CAGR
+8.4%
5Y CAGR
+2.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NTES vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.8x
vs 3.0x median
-39% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.4%
vs +10.0% median
+24% above peer median
Net Margin
29.8%
vs 0.8% median
+3879% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NTE NTES NetEase, Inc. | $77.5B | 1.8x | +12.4% | 29.8% | Buy | +23.1% |
BID BIDU Baidu, Inc. | $38.0B | 2.1x | +10.9% | 3.5% | Buy | +43.4% |
BIL BILI Bilibili Inc. | $7.2B | 2.4x | +23.4% | 0.8% | Buy | +74.4% |
HUY HUYA HUYA Inc. | $517M | 3.0x | +10.0% | -2.5% | Buy | +50.4% |
DOY DOYU DouYu International Holdings Limited | $142M | 6.4x | +2.0% | -4.8% | Hold | +91.7% |
EA EA Electronic Arts Inc. | $50.6B | 23.5x | +6.7% | 11.8% | Hold | -14.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NTES Dividend and Capital Return
NTES returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.54% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
2.54%
Payout Ratio
39.8%
How NTES Splits Its Return
Div 2.54%
Dividend 2.54%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$20.83
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
25.9%
5Y Div CAGR
26.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$622M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
638M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.88 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.04 | +24.3% | 0.7% | 15.8% |
| 2024 | $2.44 | +39.4% | 15.3% | 34.7% |
| 2023 | $1.75 | +15.3% | 8.6% | 21.9% |
| 2022 | $1.52 | +85.9% | 17.0% | 30.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsNTES Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NetEase, Inc. (NTES) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NetEase, Inc. (NTES) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $149, implying +23.1% from the current price of $121. The bear case scenario is $689 and the bull case is $1441.
02What is the NTES stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NTES is $149 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $158 (+30.2% from today), and the low-end target is $132 (+8.8%). The base case model target is $1094.
03Is NetEase, Inc. (NTES) stock overvalued in 2026?
NTES trades at 1.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NetEase, Inc. (NTES) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NTES in 2026 are: (1) Growth slowdown — Bear case scenario projects growth slowing to +3% if international expansion fails and core franchises decline. (2) Stock price decline — AI models forecast a -0. (3) International expansion risks — Failure in international push could limit growth opportunities and diversify revenue streams. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NetEase, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NTES will report consensus revenue of $128.5B (+12.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $61.93 (+17.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $138.6B in revenue.
06When does NetEase, Inc. (NTES) report its next earnings?
NetEase, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-13. Consensus expects EPS of $2.35 and revenue of $4.4B. Over recent quarters, NTES has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does NetEase, Inc. generate?
NetEase, Inc. (NTES) generated $50.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 44.0%. NTES returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.5% yield) and share repurchases ($622M TTM).