Upside case
Bull case
$1471+946.0%
BIDU would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
53
analysts
40 bullish · 0 bearish · 53 covering BIDU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
40
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$155
+10.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$240 – $1471
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
53
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $49.2B
BIDU price targets
Three scenarios for where BIDU stock could go
Current
~$141
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $141
Bear
$240
Base
$732
Bull
$1471
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$732+421.0%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$240+70.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BIDU down roughly 70% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Baidu, Inc.
BIDU · NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Baidu operates China's dominant internet search engine and AI-powered online platform. It generates most revenue from online marketing services — primarily search and feed-based ads — with cloud services and AI initiatives contributing growing shares. Its moat stems from its entrenched search dominance in China, massive user data for AI training, and regulatory barriers that limit foreign competition.
Market Cap
$49.2B
Revenue TTM
$130.5B
Net Income TTM
$9.0B
Net Margin
6.9%
BIDU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+16.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.55/$1.96
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.90/$1.74
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.56/$1.20
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.52/$1.39
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.55/$1.96 | +30.1% | $4.5B/$4.7B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.90/$1.74 | +9.2% | $4.6B/$4.3B | +5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.56/$1.20 | +30.0% | $4.4B/$4.7B | -6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.52/$1.39 | +9.4% | $4.7B/$4.7B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$132.5B
+1.5% YoY
FY2
$136.2B
+2.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$44.27
+66.8% YoY
FY2
$50.38
+13.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$15.7B
FCF Margin: -12.0%
Next Earnings
May 18, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.68
Expected Revenue
$4.6B
BIDU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BIDU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $134.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Online Marketing Services
60.3%
+8.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Online Marketing Services is the largest disclosed segment at 60.3% of FY 2023 revenue, up 8.7% YoY.
BIDU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $849 — implies +574.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
574.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BIDU
14.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
42% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
BIDU
14.5x
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
6% discount
vs BIDU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.5x
vs
5Y Average
3.6x
+308% premium
Forward PE
2.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-86%
Communication Services
13.1x
-80%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-42%
Communication Services
15.5x
-6%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+308%
PEG Ratio
0.24x
S&P 500
1.75x
-86%
Communication Services
0.66x
-63%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-29%
Communication Services
8.7x
+25%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+253%
Price/FCF
25.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+20%
Communication Services
11.6x
+121%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+699%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-20%
Communication Services
1.0x
+140%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+537%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Communication Services
3.38%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BIDU | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg BIDU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.6x | 19.1x-86% | 13.1x-80% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.5x | 25.2x-42% | 15.5x | 3.6x+308% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.24x | 1.75x-86% | 0.66x-63% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.3x-29% | 8.7x+25% | 3.1x+253% |
| Price/FCF | 25.6x | 21.3x+20% | 11.6x+121% | 3.2x+699% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-20% | 1.0x+140% | 0.4x+537% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 3.38% | — |
BIDU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBIDU Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BIDU returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$130.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-2.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$26.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$15.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-12.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$24.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$54.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$6.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
350M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBIDU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Geopolitical Exposure
Baidu’s operations are subject to China’s broad regulatory discretion, with evolving data‑security, anti‑monopoly, and foreign‑investment rules. The VIE structure could be deemed illegal, exposing the company to severe penalties or loss of operational control. Additionally, the U.S. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) threatens delisting if audit information is inaccessible, while deteriorating U.S.-China relations could lead to ADR delisting on Nasdaq.
High Risk
Financial Distress Risk
Baidu reported an operating loss in 2025 driven by impairments, and operating cash flow turned negative. Its Altman Z‑Score of 1.77 places it in the distress zone, indicating potential liquidity and solvency challenges. These factors raise the risk of financial instability and possible credit downgrades.
Medium
Core Business Revenue Decline
The core search engine business has seen plateauing domestic ad revenues, with revenue falling for the third consecutive quarter. Competition from short‑video platforms erodes market share, threatening Baidu’s traditional revenue base.
Medium
Uncertain AI & Cloud Investments
Baidu is investing heavily in generative AI, cloud, robotaxis, and intelligent EVs, but these large, uncertain projects carry execution and commercialization risks. Delays or failures could erode expected returns and strain capital resources.
Medium
Intense Domestic Competition
Baidu faces increasing domestic competition in China, impacting its market share. While strong in AI and cloud, it has not reached the top three in cloud computing, limiting its competitive advantage.
Lower
International Revenue Negligibility
Less than 1% of Baidu’s revenue comes from overseas, and past international ventures have failed to gain traction. Limited global presence reduces diversification and growth opportunities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BIDU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI-Centric Transformation
Baidu is pivoting from a traditional search engine to an AI-driven technology platform, anchored by its ERNIE foundation model and Baidu Cloud. This ecosystem supports a wide range of multimodal AI applications for Chinese enterprises, positioning Baidu as a leader in China’s evolving tech landscape.
ERNIE & Digital Humans
The ERNIE foundation model powers innovative applications such as "Digital Humans," which automate marketing, sales, and customer engagement. This move signals Baidu’s shift toward AI-native business operations.
Baidu Cloud Growth
The iA-CLOUD segment now accounts for over 40% of Baidu’s total revenue and the company plans to increase prices on its AI Cloud services, indicating strong demand and a clearer path to profitability in AI.
Apollo Go International Expansion
Baidu’s Apollo Go autonomous driving platform is expanding internationally, with recent rollouts in Dubai. This expansion highlights Baidu’s global ambitions in AI-powered mobility.
Shareholder-Friendly Actions
Baidu has implemented a $5 billion share buyback program and introduced its first-ever dividend policy, aiming to support the stock price and signal confidence in future cash flows.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BIDU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$140.59
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$81.17
+73.2% from the low
52-Week High
$165.30
-14.9% from the high
1 Month
+26.34%
3 Month
-3.66%
YTD
-6.5%
1 Year
+54.1%
3Y CAGR
+4.7%
5Y CAGR
-6.1%
10Y CAGR
-2.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BIDU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.6x
vs 20.2x median
-87% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.5%
vs +7.0% median
-78% below peer median
Net Margin
6.9%
vs 32.8% median
-79% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BID BIDU Baidu, Inc. | $49.2B | 2.6x | +1.5% | 6.9% | Buy | +10.0% |
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.81T | 29.6x | +14.1% | 37.9% | Buy | +2.1% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.07T | 24.9x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +33.3% |
BAB BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $341.6B | 4.1x | +3.6% | 12.2% | Buy | +37.3% |
NTE NTES NetEase, Inc. | $75.0B | 1.9x | +6.0% | 30.0% | Buy | +26.5% |
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.55T | 20.2x | +16.1% | 32.8% | Buy | +34.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BIDU Dividend and Capital Return
BIDU returns 1.9% annually — null% through dividends and 1.9% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$6.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
45M
Approx. Share Reduction
12.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
350M
At 12.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsBIDU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 53 analysts covering the stock, 40 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $155, implying +10.0% from the current price of $141. The bear case scenario is $240 and the bull case is $1471.
02What is the BIDU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BIDU is $155 based on 53 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $215 (+52.9% from today), and the low-end target is $110 (-21.8%). The base case model target is $732.
03Is Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) stock overvalued in 2026?
BIDU trades at 2.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BIDU in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Geopolitical Exposure — Baidu’s operations are subject to China’s broad regulatory discretion, with evolving data‑security, anti‑monopoly, and foreign‑investment rules. (2) Financial Distress Risk — Baidu reported an operating loss in 2025 driven by impairments, and operating cash flow turned negative. (3) Core Business Revenue Decline — The core search engine business has seen plateauing domestic ad revenues, with revenue falling for the third consecutive quarter. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Baidu, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BIDU will report consensus revenue of $132.5B (+1.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $44.27 (+66.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $136.2B in revenue.
06When does Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) report its next earnings?
Baidu, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-18. Consensus expects EPS of $1.68 and revenue of $4.6B. Over recent quarters, BIDU has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Baidu, Inc. generate?
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) had a free cash outflow of $15.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.0%. BIDU returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($6.3B TTM).