Upside case
Bull case
$269+113.7%
NXT would need investors to value it at roughly 62x earnings — about 33x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nextpower Inc. (NXT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering NXT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$124
-1.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$16 – $269
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.7B
NXT price targets
Three scenarios for where NXT stock could go
Current
~$126
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $126
Bear
$16
Base
$195
Bull
$269
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$195+54.8%
At 45x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$16-87.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 25x multiple contraction could push NXT down roughly 87% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nextpower Inc.
NXT · NASDAQTechnologyConsumer ElectronicsMarch year-end
Nextracker designs and manufactures solar tracking systems that follow the sun to maximize energy production from photovoltaic power plants. It generates revenue primarily from selling its NX Horizon and NX Gemini tracker hardware—which accounts for the bulk of sales—alongside software subscriptions for its TrueCapture optimization platform. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary software algorithms that optimize tracker positioning and its extensive installation experience across diverse terrains.
Market Cap
$18.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.6B
Net Income TTM
$592M
Net Margin
16.4%
NXT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+42.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.29/$0.96
Revenue
$924M/$829M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.03
Revenue
$864M/$841M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.06
Revenue
$905M/$858M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.10/$0.93
Revenue
$909M/$815M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.29/$0.96 | +34.0% | $924M/$829M | +11.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16/$1.03 | +12.6% | $864M/$841M | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.19/$1.06 | +12.3% | $905M/$858M | +5.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.10/$0.93 | +18.3% | $909M/$815M | +11.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.9B
+9.2% YoY
FY2
$4.7B
+20.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.59
+19.3% YoY
FY2
$5.37
+17.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$589M
FCF Margin: 16.4%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.89
Expected Revenue
$828M
NXT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NXT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
NXT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $635 — implies +429.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
429.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NXT
36.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+44% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NXT
36.3x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+32% premium
vs NXT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.3x
vs
5Y Average
14.4x
+152% premium
Forward PE
28.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+51%
Technology
21.7x
+33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+44%
Technology
27.5x
+32%
5Y Avg
14.4x
+152%
PEG Ratio
14.65x
S&P 500
1.75x
+739%
Technology
1.47x
+900%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+80%
Technology
17.4x
+58%
5Y Avg
17.5x
+57%
Price/FCF
30.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+41%
Technology
19.8x
+52%
5Y Avg
26.8x
+12%
Price/Sales
6.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+102%
Technology
2.4x
+162%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+131%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NXT | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.9x | 19.1x+51% | 21.7x+33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.3x | 25.2x+44% | 27.5x+32% | 14.4x+152% |
| PEG Ratio | 14.65x | 1.75x+739% | 1.47x+900% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.5x | 15.3x+80% | 17.4x+58% | 17.5x+57% |
| Price/FCF | 30.1x | 21.3x+41% | 19.8x+52% | 26.8x+12% |
| Price/Sales | 6.3x | 3.1x+102% | 2.4x+162% | 2.7x+131% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
NXT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNXT Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NXT generates $589M in free cash flow at a 16.4% margin — 62.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+30.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$589M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
62.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$766M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$766M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
27.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
149M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNXT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Valuation
NXT stock is currently trading at a price significantly above its intrinsic value, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio higher than its 5-year median. This elevated valuation suggests a lower margin of safety for new investors.
High Risk
Dependence on Government Subsidies
A substantial portion of NXT's revenue is reliant on government subsidies, particularly the IRA 45X tax credit. Any changes to these subsidies, especially in the current US economic climate, could adversely affect the company's profitability.
Medium
Margin Compression
Despite NXT's strong profitability and high EBIT margins, there is a risk of margin compression due to competitive pressures or changes in customer agreements. This could significantly impact future earnings.
Medium
Customer Concentration
NXT's revenue is dependent on a relatively small number of customers, which poses a concentration risk. Loss of any major customer could have a detrimental effect on the company's financial performance.
Medium
Execution Risk
While NXT has a strong backlog, there is a risk that bundled orders may not scale beyond current capabilities. The complexity of integrating multiple products could hinder revenue growth and operational performance.
Lower
Growth in New Segments
Future growth for NXT is contingent on successful expansion into new, unproven segments, as the majority of its revenue still comes from legacy solar-tracking technology. The success of these new ventures remains uncertain.
Lower
Stock-Based Compensation
High stock-based compensation, which accounts for 15-20% of net income, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings. This could affect investor sentiment and stock performance.
Lower
Extreme Weather Costs
The costs associated with extreme weather events may be factored into project pricing and insurance terms, potentially impacting future returns. Investors should consider this risk in their assessments.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NXT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership
Nextracker is the world's largest solar tracker provider, holding a significant market share. Its solar tracking systems enhance solar panel efficiency by following the sun, potentially increasing energy output in major solar projects globally.
Strong Financial Performance
Nextracker's revenue increased by 30% year-on-year and 7% since the previous quarter, reaching $2.96 billion in fiscal year 2025, an 18.38% increase from the prior year. The company has zero debt and has improved gross margins from 15.3% to 27.8% and profit margins from 6.3% to 12.3% between 2022 and 2023.
Favorable Industry Trends
The demand for renewable energy, especially solar, is accelerating due to global commitments to clean energy. Nextracker is positioned to benefit from this expansion, effectively monetizing the Inflation Reduction Act by meeting domestic content thresholds for components.
Innovation and Market Expansion
Nextracker's commitment to research and development keeps it ahead of competitors, with new architectures like terrain-following solutions expanding its total addressable market. This innovation lowers return on investment hurdles for solar projects.
Robust Backlog and Demand Visibility
The company has a backlog exceeding $5 billion, which supports strong demand visibility and indicates a solid pipeline for future revenue.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NXT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$126.08
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.25
+205.6% from the low
52-Week High
$131.72
-4.3% from the high
1 Month
+16.68%
3 Month
+3.88%
YTD
+35.9%
1 Year
+194.0%
3Y CAGR
+57.6%
5Y CAGR
+32.4%
10Y CAGR
+15.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NXT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.9x
vs 17.8x median
+62% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.2%
vs +11.6% median
-20% below peer median
Net Margin
16.4%
vs 6.3% median
+162% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXT NXT Nextpower Inc. | $18.7B | 28.9x | +9.2% | 16.4% | Buy | -1.6% |
ARR ARRY Array Technologies, Inc. | $1.2B | 11.6x | +17.1% | -5.6% | Buy | +12.9% |
SHL SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | $1.4B | 20.6x | +15.1% | 6.3% | Buy | +18.0% |
FLN FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. | $1.8B | — | +11.6% | -1.6% | Hold | +41.2% |
STE STEM Stem, Inc. | $91M | — | +4.0% | 94.2% | Hold | +93.4% |
ENP ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $4.7B | 17.8x | -4.5% | 9.6% | Hold | +21.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNXT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nextpower Inc. (NXT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $124, implying -1.6% from the current price of $126. The bear case scenario is $16 and the bull case is $269.
02What is the NXT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NXT is $124 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $142 (+12.6% from today), and the low-end target is $81 (-35.8%). The base case model target is $195.
03Is Nextpower Inc. (NXT) stock overvalued in 2026?
NXT trades at 28.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nextpower Inc. (NXT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NXT in 2026 are: (1) High Valuation — NXT stock is currently trading at a price significantly above its intrinsic value, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio higher than its 5-year median. (2) Dependence on Government Subsidies — A substantial portion of NXT's revenue is reliant on government subsidies, particularly the IRA 45X tax credit. (3) Margin Compression — Despite NXT's strong profitability and high EBIT margins, there is a risk of margin compression due to competitive pressures or changes in customer agreements. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nextpower Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NXT will report consensus revenue of $3.9B (+9.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.59 (+19.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.7B in revenue.
06When does Nextpower Inc. (NXT) report its next earnings?
Nextpower Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.89 and revenue of $828M. Over recent quarters, NXT has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nextpower Inc. generate?
Nextpower Inc. (NXT) generated $589M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.4%. NXT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).