Upside case
Bull case
$182+44.3%
NXT would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Nextpower Inc. (NXT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering NXT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$152
+20.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$87 – $182
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.9B
NXT price targets
Three scenarios for where NXT stock could go
Current
~$126
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $126
Bear
$87
Base
$138
Bull
$182
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$138+9.5%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NXT — at roughly 30x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$87-31.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push NXT down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nextpower Inc.
NXT · NASDAQTechnologyConsumer ElectronicsMarch year-end
Nextracker designs and manufactures solar tracking systems that follow the sun to maximize energy production from photovoltaic power plants. It generates revenue primarily from selling its NX Horizon and NX Gemini tracker hardware—which accounts for the bulk of sales—alongside software subscriptions for its TrueCapture optimization platform. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary software algorithms that optimize tracker positioning and its extensive installation experience across diverse terrains.
Market Cap
$18.9B
Revenue TTM
$3.6B
Net Income TTM
$586M
Net Margin
16.5%
NXT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+46.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.03
Revenue
$864M/$841M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.06
Revenue
$905M/$858M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.10/$0.93
Revenue
$909M/$815M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.05/$0.92
Revenue
$881M/$826M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.16/$1.03 | +12.6% | $864M/$841M | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.19/$1.06 | +12.3% | $905M/$858M | +5.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.10/$0.93 | +18.3% | $909M/$815M | +11.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.05/$0.92 | +13.8% | $881M/$826M | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.0B
+11.2% YoY
FY2
$4.4B
+12.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.01
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$4.34
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$516M
FCF Margin: 14.5%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.03
Expected Revenue
$931M
NXT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NXT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $3.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
+20.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2026 revenue, up 20.3% YoY.
NXT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NXT
32.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+34% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NXT
32.8x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+13% premium
vs NXT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.8x
vs
5Y Average
20.1x
+63% premium
Forward PE
27.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+45%
Technology
22.3x
+23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+34%
Technology
29.0x
+13%
5Y Avg
20.1x
+63%
PEG Ratio
9.31x
S&P 500
1.66x
+461%
Technology
1.51x
+518%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+61%
Technology
16.6x
+47%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+28%
Price/FCF
37.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+79%
Technology
19.2x
+93%
5Y Avg
29.1x
+27%
Price/Sales
5.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+72%
Technology
2.4x
+118%
5Y Avg
3.3x
+59%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NXT | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.3x | 18.8x+45% | 22.3x+23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.8x | 24.4x+34% | 29.0x+13% | 20.1x+63% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.31x | 1.66x+461% | 1.51x+518% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.5x | 15.2x+61% | 16.6x+47% | 19.1x+28% |
| Price/FCF | 37.0x | 20.7x+79% | 19.2x+93% | 29.1x+27% |
| Price/Sales | 5.3x | 3.1x+72% | 2.4x+118% | 3.3x+59% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
NXT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNXT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NXT generates $516M in free cash flow at a 14.5% margin — 49.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+20.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.79
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$516M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
49.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$395000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
150M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNXT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Policy and regulatory risk
The investment case for solar technology manufacturers like Nextpower is impacted by policy changes, particularly in the US, creating uncertainty.
Medium
Competing technologies
Nextpower faces risks from competing technologies in the solar sector, which could erode its market position.
Medium
Valuation concerns
With a P/E of 36.57x and limited upside to the analyst target price, Nextpower's valuation may be stretched.
Lower
Earnings uncertainty
The projected EPS of $4.72 carries a confidence score of only 67/100, indicating potential volatility in earnings estimates.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NXT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Solar tracker leadership
Nextpower Inc. highlighted its solar tracker technologies and role in large-scale projects, showcasing its leadership in the solar industry.
Strong financial performance
The company's upcoming Q3 fiscal 2026 results and consistent cash generation underscore its strong financial health and operational efficiency.
Strategic rebranding
Nextpower's rebrand from Nextracker and expansion into an integrated power-technology platform signal growth beyond solar trackers, including utility-scale power conversion systems.
High demand in energy infrastructure
Backlog and energy infrastructure demand support the investment thesis, indicating robust market opportunities for Nextpower's solutions.
Analyst confidence
With an overall score of 82/100 and active buy-quality rating, analysts remain confident in Nextpower's stock despite trading above preferred price levels.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NXT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$125.90
52W Range Position
67%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$51.69
+143.6% from the low
52-Week High
$163.13
-22.8% from the high
1 Month
-6.38%
3 Month
+9.12%
YTD
+35.7%
1 Year
+113.8%
3Y CAGR
+47.1%
5Y CAGR
+32.3%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NXT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.3x
vs 25.3x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.2%
vs +12.3% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
16.5%
vs 6.3% median
+163% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXT NXT Nextpower Inc. | $18.9B | 27.3x | +11.2% | 16.5% | Buy | +20.4% |
ARR ARRY Array Technologies, Inc. | $1.2B | 11.0x | +15.1% | -5.6% | Buy | +22.5% |
SHL SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | $1.7B | 25.3x | +12.3% | 6.3% | Buy | -23.2% |
FLN FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. | $3.3B | — | +21.2% | -1.6% | Hold | -22.1% |
STE STEM Stem, Inc. | $70M | — | -1.5% | 93.3% | Hold | +151.5% |
ENP ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $6.9B | 25.9x | -2.1% | 9.6% | Hold | -8.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NXT Dividend and Capital Return
NXT does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$395000
Estimated Shares Retired
3.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
150M
FAQ
7 questionsNXT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nextpower Inc. (NXT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $152, implying +20.4% from the current price of $126. The bear case scenario is $87 and the bull case is $182.
02What is the NXT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NXT is $152 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $180 (+43.0% from today), and the low-end target is $125 (-0.7%). The base case model target is $138.
03Is Nextpower Inc. (NXT) stock overvalued in 2026?
NXT trades at 27.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nextpower Inc. (NXT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NXT in 2026 are: (1) Policy and regulatory risk — The investment case for solar technology manufacturers like Nextpower is impacted by policy changes, particularly in the US, creating uncertainty. (2) Competing technologies — Nextpower faces risks from competing technologies in the solar sector, which could erode its market position. (3) Valuation concerns — With a P/E of 36. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nextpower Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NXT will report consensus revenue of $4.0B (+11.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.01 (+5.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.4B in revenue.
06When does Nextpower Inc. (NXT) report its next earnings?
Nextpower Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.03 and revenue of $931M. Over recent quarters, NXT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nextpower Inc. generate?
Nextpower Inc. (NXT) generated $516M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.5%. NXT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($395000 TTM).