Upside case
Bull case
$115+37.4%
NYT would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 31x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The New York Times Company (NYT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
16
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 16 covering NYT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
-19.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$46 – $115
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.5B
NYT price targets
Three scenarios for where NYT stock could go
Current
~$84
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $84
Bear
$46
Base
$117
Bull
$115
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$117+39.9%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$46-45.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push NYT down roughly 45% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The New York Times Company
NYT · NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingDecember year-end
The New York Times Company is a global digital-first news organization that publishes journalism across multiple platforms. It generates revenue primarily through digital subscriptions (~70% of total revenue) and advertising, with additional income from licensing, live events, and product recommendations through Wirecutter. Its competitive advantage lies in its premium brand reputation, award-winning journalism, and successful transition to a sustainable digital subscription model that has created a loyal, paying audience.
Market Cap
$13.5B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$382M
Net Margin
13.2%
NYT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.35
Revenue
$636M/$669M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.58/$0.50
Revenue
$686M/$692M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.53
Revenue
$701M/$688M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.89/$0.88
Revenue
$802M/$791M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.41/$0.35 | +17.1% | $636M/$669M | -4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.58/$0.50 | +16.0% | $686M/$692M | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.59/$0.53 | +10.7% | $701M/$688M | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.89/$0.88 | +1.1% | $802M/$791M | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.0B
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$3.2B
+6.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.30
+11.7% YoY
FY2
$2.48
+7.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$542M
FCF Margin: 18.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.49
Expected Revenue
$700M
NYT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NYT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $2.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription
68.4%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Subscription is the largest disclosed segment at 68.4% of FY 2024 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
NYT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $59 — implies -25.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
25.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NYT
40.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+59% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
NYT
40.0x
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
+157% premium
vs NYT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
40.0x
vs
5Y Average
33.1x
+21% premium
Forward PE
30.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+61%
Communication Services
13.1x
+135%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
40.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
+59%
Communication Services
15.5x
+157%
5Y Avg
33.1x
+21%
PEG Ratio
1.41x
S&P 500
1.75x
-19%
Communication Services
0.66x
+114%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+63%
Communication Services
8.7x
+186%
5Y Avg
20.5x
+21%
Price/FCF
24.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+15%
Communication Services
11.6x
+113%
5Y Avg
30.0x
-18%
Price/Sales
4.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+53%
Communication Services
1.0x
+357%
5Y Avg
3.4x
+41%
Dividend Yield
0.80%
S&P 500
1.88%
-57%
Communication Services
3.38%
-76%
5Y Avg
0.88%
-9%
| Metric | NYT | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg NYT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.7x | 19.1x+61% | 13.1x+135% | — |
| Trailing PE | 40.0x | 25.2x+59% | 15.5x+157% | 33.1x+21% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.41x | 1.75x-19% | 0.66x+114% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.9x | 15.3x+63% | 8.7x+186% | 20.5x+21% |
| Price/FCF | 24.6x | 21.3x+15% | 11.6x+113% | 30.0x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 4.8x | 3.1x+53% | 1.0x+357% | 3.4x+41% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.80% | 1.88% | 3.38% | 0.88% |
NYT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNYT Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NYT generates $542M in free cash flow at a 18.7% margin — 18.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$542M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$255M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$207M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$165M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.67
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
162M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNYT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Competition & Consumer Preferences
The proliferation of free news sources, particularly from social media, poses a significant threat to traditional pay media models. Younger generations have a wide array of news sources, which may reduce their willingness to pay for news content.
High Risk
Economic Downturns
A severe economic downturn could negatively impact consumer discretionary spending on subscriptions and reduce advertising revenue. This could lead to a significant decline in overall revenue for The New York Times Company.
High Risk
Operational Risks
Operational risks include potential disruptions from generative AI replicating their content without authorization, which could harm traffic and intellectual property value. Additionally, reliance on external platforms introduces vulnerability to algorithm, policy, or pricing changes.
Medium
Subscriber Churn & Election Cycles
Current subscriber strength may be temporary, potentially fading after election cycles conclude, leading to increased subscriber churn. This could adversely affect revenue stability.
Medium
Rising Costs
Escalating newsroom and operational costs present a challenge for The New York Times Company, potentially impacting profitability. Increased expenses could outpace revenue growth, affecting margins.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Some analysts view the stock as potentially overvalued, trading at a higher P/E multiple compared to the broader market. This could lead to downward pressure on the stock price if market sentiment shifts.
Lower
Reputational & Legal Risks
Recent events, such as an internal review at The Athletic and a libel ruling, highlight potential reputational and legal challenges. Political scrutiny could create short-term negative sentiment, although the impact on fundamentals may be mixed.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NYT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Digital Subscription Growth
The company has significantly increased its digital subscriptions, which has become a major revenue driver. Projections indicate continued growth in digital-only average revenue per user (ARPU) and net subscriber additions.
Diversified Revenue Streams
Beyond subscriptions, NYT is expanding into areas like live events and podcasts, further diversifying its revenue sources and audience reach.
Strong Financial Health
Recent financial performance shows robust revenue and net income figures. The company boasts healthy margins, strong operating cash flow, and a significant amount of cash and investments with minimal debt.
Brand Authority and Moat
The New York Times possesses a strong brand authority that has helped it build an economic moat in the fragmented media landscape. This allows for pricing power and consistent cash flow generation.
Strategic Focus and Innovation
The company's commitment to innovation and quality journalism, coupled with its 'digital-first' transformation, positions it well for future growth.
Analyst Confidence
A majority of analysts recommend buying or holding the stock, citing its strong digital performance and financial health. Some analysts even see potential for the stock to outperform the market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NYT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$83.66
52W Range Position
90%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$51.03
+63.9% from the low
52-Week High
$87.10
-3.9% from the high
1 Month
-1.73%
3 Month
+22.84%
YTD
+19.8%
1 Year
+58.9%
3Y CAGR
+28.0%
5Y CAGR
+13.6%
10Y CAGR
+21.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NYT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.7x
vs 39.9x median
-23% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.9%
vs -4.0% median
+299% above peer median
Net Margin
13.2%
vs 3.3% median
+304% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYT NYT The New York Times Company | $13.5B | 30.7x | +7.9% | 13.2% | Hold | -19.9% |
GCI GCI Gannett Co., Inc. | $877M | 51.0x | -4.0% | 4.1% | Hold | -6.9% |
NWS NWS News Corporation | $17.2B | 28.8x | -0.5% | 5.1% | Buy | — |
LEE LEE Lee Enterprises, Incorporated | $51M | — | -5.3% | -4.8% | — | — |
IAC IAC IAC InterActive Corp. | $3.1B | 107.5x | -21.9% | 1.8% | Buy | +16.4% |
ZD ZD Ziff Davis, Inc. | $1.7B | 7.2x | +2.8% | 3.3% | Buy | -1.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NYT Dividend and Capital Return
NYT returns 1.2% annually — 0.60% through dividends and 0.6% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
0.60%
Payout Ratio
28.2%
How NYT Splits Its Return
Div 0.60%
Buyback 0.6%
Dividend 0.60%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.50
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
25.4%
5Y Div CAGR
23.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$165M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
162M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.67 | +34.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.50 | +19.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| 2023 | $0.42 | +23.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.34 | +25.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsNYT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The New York Times Company (NYT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The New York Times Company (NYT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying -19.9% from the current price of $84. The bear case scenario is $46 and the bull case is $115.
02What is the NYT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NYT is $67 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (-10.4% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-28.3%). The base case model target is $117.
03Is The New York Times Company (NYT) stock overvalued in 2026?
NYT trades at 30.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The New York Times Company (NYT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NYT in 2026 are: (1) Competition & Consumer Preferences — The proliferation of free news sources, particularly from social media, poses a significant threat to traditional pay media models. (2) Economic Downturns — A severe economic downturn could negatively impact consumer discretionary spending on subscriptions and reduce advertising revenue. (3) Operational Risks — Operational risks include potential disruptions from generative AI replicating their content without authorization, which could harm traffic and intellectual property value. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The New York Times Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NYT will report consensus revenue of $3.0B (+7.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.30 (+11.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.2B in revenue.
06When does The New York Times Company (NYT) report its next earnings?
The New York Times Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.49 and revenue of $700M. Over recent quarters, NYT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The New York Times Company generate?
The New York Times Company (NYT) generated $542M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.7%. NYT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($165M TTM).