Upside case
Bull case
$139+118.7%
O would need investors to value it at roughly 84x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 38x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Realty Income Corporation (O) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
34
analysts
13 bullish · 3 bearish · 34 covering O
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
18
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$65
+2.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$49 – $139
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $59.4B
O price targets
Three scenarios for where O stock could go
Current
~$64
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $64
Bear
$49
Base
$85
Bull
$139
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$85+33.0%
At 51x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$49-23.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push O down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Realty Income Corporation
O · NYSEReal EstateREIT - RetailDecember year-end
Realty Income is a real estate investment trust that owns and leases single-tenant commercial properties to retail and service-oriented businesses. It generates revenue primarily through long-term triple-net leases—where tenants pay rent plus property expenses—with retail clients like convenience stores and drugstores accounting for roughly 80% of its portfolio. The company's moat lies in its massive scale, diversified tenant base, and long-term lease structure that provides predictable monthly cash flow supporting its famous monthly dividend payments.
Market Cap
$59.4B
Revenue TTM
$5.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
18.4%
O Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-20.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.28/$0.36
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.40
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.40
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.32/$0.38
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.28/$0.36 | -22.2% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.22/$0.40 | -45.3% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.34/$0.40 | -14.7% | $1.5B/$1.4B | +5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.32/$0.38 | -16.6% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.4B
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$7.4B
+15.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.41
+20.7% YoY
FY2
$1.56
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.8B
FCF Margin: 48.5%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.41
Expected Revenue
$1.4B
O beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
O Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product And Service, Retail
100.0%
+7.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
81.3%
-19.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product And Service, Retail is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 81.3%, down 19.2% YoY.
O Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $68 — implies +5.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
O
54.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+116% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
O
54.3x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+125% premium
vs O 5Y Avg P/E
Today
54.3x
vs
5Y Average
55.0x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
38.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+100%
Real Estate
26.4x
+45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
54.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
+116%
Real Estate
24.1x
+125%
5Y Avg
55.0x
-1%
PEG Ratio
73.34x
S&P 500
1.72x
+4174%
Real Estate
1.25x
+5789%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Real Estate
16.7x
-14%
5Y Avg
17.7x
-19%
Price/FCF
14.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
-30%
Real Estate
15.4x
-4%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-4%
Price/Sales
10.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+230%
Real Estate
3.0x
+247%
5Y Avg
10.7x
-3%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Real Estate
4.66%
—
5Y Avg
4.92%
—
| Metric | O | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg O |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.2x | 19.1x+100% | 26.4x+45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 54.3x | 25.1x+116% | 24.1x+125% | 55.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 73.34x | 1.72x+4174% | 1.25x+5789% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4x | 15.2x | 16.7x-14% | 17.7x-19% |
| Price/FCF | 14.9x | 21.1x-30% | 15.4x | 15.5x |
| Price/Sales | 10.3x | 3.1x+230% | 3.0x+247% | 10.7x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 4.66% | 4.92% |
O trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolO Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
O pays 0.0% total shareholder yield with 28.3% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
89.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
28.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.17
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
28.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$435M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$435M
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
Net cash ✓
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
905M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Changes
Interest rate changes, often driven by central bank policies, can impact borrowing costs and equity valuations. A sudden increase can compress earnings and push valuations lower.
High Risk
Inflation
High inflation can erode the purchasing power of investment gains and squeeze corporate profit margins. Persistent inflation may force higher input costs and reduce net income.
High Risk
Political & Regulatory Changes
Government policies, tax laws, and new regulations can create uncertainty and affect market performance. Unexpected changes can alter cost structures and compliance expenses.
High Risk
Financial Risk
High levels of debt, an inability to meet interest payments, or refinancing difficulties can pose a risk to a company's financial stability. Such scenarios can lead to credit downgrades and higher borrowing costs.
Medium
Industry Risk
Sector-specific challenges, such as changes in consumer demand, technological disruptions, or increased competition, can affect companies within that industry. These dynamics can erode market share and compress margins.
Medium
Liquidity Risk
Risk of not being able to sell an investment quickly at its market price, often associated with stocks that have low trading volumes. Low liquidity can amplify price swings and increase transaction costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why O Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Interest Rate Cuts
Expectations that central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, will cut interest rates are a strong driver of the bull case. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs for companies and can make future earnings more valuable, supporting higher stock valuations.
Earnings Growth
Strong corporate earnings, especially in technology and AI sectors, are a significant factor. The belief that companies will continue to grow profits justifies higher stock prices.
Economic Resilience
The assumption that the economy will avoid a significant slowdown or contraction is crucial. Strong consumer spending and robust employment figures provide a solid foundation for the stock market.
Inflation Decline
The view that inflation will continue to decrease, or remain manageable, supports the bull case. Lower inflation reduces pressure on central banks to raise rates and can lead to lower Treasury yields, which in turn supports higher stock multiples.
Corporate Share Buybacks
Companies repurchasing their own stock can increase demand for shares and boost earnings per share. This activity contributes to a bullish outlook by supporting share prices.
Technological Advancements (AI)
Ongoing investment and development in Artificial Intelligence are seen as a significant tailwind. AI drives productivity, efficiency, and future earnings growth for companies involved in this sector.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
O Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$63.57
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$54.38
+16.9% from the low
52-Week High
$67.94
-6.4% from the high
1 Month
+2.81%
3 Month
+0.33%
YTD
+10.9%
1 Year
+11.6%
3Y CAGR
+0.3%
5Y CAGR
-0.4%
10Y CAGR
+0.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
O vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.2x
vs 23.9x median
+60% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.5%
vs +17.3% median
-34% below peer median
Net Margin
18.4%
vs 40.1% median
-54% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O O Realty Income Corporation | $59.4B | 38.2x | +11.5% | 18.4% | Hold | +2.6% |
NNN NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | $8.4B | 21.6x | +6.1% | 41.4% | Hold | +3.7% |
ADC ADC Agree Realty Corporation | $9.1B | 38.8x | +17.3% | 29.3% | Buy | +9.9% |
EPR EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.7B | 23.9x | +22.8% | 43.3% | Buy | +17.1% |
GTY GTY Getty Realty Corp. | $2.0B | 22.0x | +8.5% | 40.1% | Buy | +3.1% |
NTS NTST NETSTREIT Corp. | $1.7B | 64.7x | +31.1% | 0.1% | Buy | +8.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
O Dividend and Capital Return
O does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
27Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.5%
5Y Div CAGR
5.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Monthly
12 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
905M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.49 | +21.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $2.87 | -6.2% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $3.06 | +3.0% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $2.97 | +7.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Realty Income Corporation (O) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Realty Income Corporation (O) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $65, implying +2.6% from the current price of $64. The bear case scenario is $49 and the bull case is $139.
02What is the O stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for O is $65 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $69 (+8.5% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-5.6%). The base case model target is $85.
03Is Realty Income Corporation (O) stock overvalued in 2026?
O trades at 38.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Realty Income Corporation (O) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for O in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Changes — Interest rate changes, often driven by central bank policies, can impact borrowing costs and equity valuations. (2) Inflation — High inflation can erode the purchasing power of investment gains and squeeze corporate profit margins. (3) Political & Regulatory Changes — Government policies, tax laws, and new regulations can create uncertainty and affect market performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Realty Income Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates O will report consensus revenue of $6.4B (+11.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.41 (+20.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.4B in revenue.
06When does Realty Income Corporation (O) report its next earnings?
Realty Income Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $1.4B. Over recent quarters, O has beaten EPS estimates 8% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Realty Income Corporation generate?
Realty Income Corporation (O) generated $2.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 48.5%. O returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).