Upside case
Bull case
$214+108.0%
ON would need investors to value it at roughly 73x earnings — about 38x more generous than today's 35x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
23 bullish · 1 bearish · 45 covering ON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
21
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
-39.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$23 – $214
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
35.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $40.4B
ON price targets
Three scenarios for where ON stock could go
Current
~$103
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $103
Bear
$23
Base
$103
Bull
$214
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$103+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ON — at roughly 35x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$23-77.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 27x multiple contraction could push ON down roughly 77% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ON Semiconductor Corporation
ON · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
ON Semiconductor is a semiconductor manufacturer specializing in intelligent power and sensing solutions for automotive, industrial, and energy applications. It generates revenue primarily from power semiconductors (~60% of sales) and sensing/imaging chips (~25%), with the remainder from analog and other components. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in power electronics and strong relationships with automotive OEMs—particularly in electric vehicle power management—which creates switching costs and technical barriers.
Market Cap
$40.4B
Revenue TTM
$6.1B
Net Income TTM
$574M
Net Margin
9.5%
ON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.53/$0.53
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.63/$0.59
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.62
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.61
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.53/$0.53 | -0.4% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.63/$0.59 | +6.8% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.64/$0.62 | +2.6% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64/$0.61 | +4.4% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.0B
-1.1% YoY
FY2
$5.9B
-1.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.43
+66.6% YoY
FY2
$2.77
+14.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 24.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ON beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Power Solutions Group
75.1%
-16.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other Geographical Areas
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Power Solutions Group is the largest disclosed segment at 75.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 16.2% YoY.
Other Geographical Areas is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $92 — implies -10.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ON
354.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+1310% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ON
354.1x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+1225% premium
vs ON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
354.1x
vs
5Y Average
53.2x
+566% premium
Forward PE
35.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+84%
Technology
22.1x
+59%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
354.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+1310%
Technology
26.7x
+1225%
5Y Avg
53.2x
+566%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
29.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+91%
Technology
17.5x
+67%
5Y Avg
13.4x
+118%
Price/FCF
28.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+35%
Technology
19.5x
+46%
5Y Avg
32.8x
-13%
Price/Sales
6.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+116%
Technology
2.4x
+176%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+69%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ON | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 35.1x | 19.1x+84% | 22.1x+59% | — |
| Trailing PE | 354.1x | 25.1x+1310% | 26.7x+1225% | 53.2x+566% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.1x | 15.2x+91% | 17.5x+67% | 13.4x+118% |
| Price/FCF | 28.5x | 21.1x+35% | 19.5x+46% | 32.8x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 6.7x | 3.1x+116% | 2.4x+176% | 4.0x+69% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
ON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolON Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ON generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 24.0% margin — returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-9.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
393M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Concentration in Automotive & Industrial
A large share of ON Semiconductor’s revenue comes from the automotive and industrial sectors. A cyclical slowdown in these markets, such as the recent decline in automotive demand and a slower-than-expected EV shift in China, is projected to reduce revenue in 2025. This concentration exposes the company to significant upside and downside swings tied to sector performance.
High Risk
Global Supply Chain Disruptions
The company relies on a complex global supply chain that can be disrupted by geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, trade policy changes, or pandemics. Recent Red Sea attacks have already driven up container shipping costs, and limited foundry capacity for image sensors could cause prolonged shortages. Such disruptions could delay product deliveries and increase costs, materially impacting earnings.
High Risk
Technological Obsolescence Risk
ON Semiconductor must continuously innovate to keep pace with rapid semiconductor technology advances. Failure to develop new products or adopt emerging technologies could erode market share and reduce pricing power. This risk directly threatens the company’s competitive position and revenue growth.
Medium
Customer Concentration Risk
A significant portion of revenue is derived from a handful of large customers. Losing any of these key accounts would materially reduce top-line performance and could give remaining customers stronger negotiating leverage. The concentration amplifies revenue volatility and earnings sensitivity.
Medium
Cyclical Market Downturns
The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical, and ON Semiconductor has experienced sharp revenue and net income declines in 2025, with a forecasted slump. Although a rebound is expected in 2026, the current downturn has already pressured the stock price and earnings outlook.
Lower
Commoditization of Silicon Carbide (SiC)
SiC is a key growth driver for ON Semiconductor, but increasing commoditization could erode margins and pricing power. As competitors offer similar SiC solutions, the company may face intensified price competition and reduced profitability in this segment.
Lower
Underutilization of Manufacturing Capacity
There is a risk that manufacturing capacity may remain underutilized, leading to higher per-unit costs and reduced operational efficiency. This could negatively affect profitability if demand does not meet capacity utilization targets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Premium Brand & CloudTec Innovation
On has positioned itself as a premium sportswear brand, leveraging its proprietary CloudTec® cushioning technology to deliver superior performance. The focus on design, athlete partnerships, and premium pricing has cultivated strong brand loyalty and enabled higher margins.
Robust Revenue Growth
The company exceeded CHF 3.0 billion in net sales in 2025 and is projected to grow at least 23% year‑over‑year on a constant‑currency basis in 2026. This growth is broad‑based across regions, with significant expansion in the Asia‑Pacific market.
Improving Profitability
Gross profit margins reached 62.8% in 2025, while adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be 18.5%‑19.0% in 2026. These figures reflect operational efficiencies and the strength of On’s premium positioning.
Direct‑to‑Consumer Expansion
On’s DTC channel is growing rapidly, contributing a significant share of sales and enhancing customer engagement and loyalty. The channel’s expansion supports higher margin capture and direct brand communication.
Strong Financial Position
The company maintains a robust balance sheet with over CHF 1.0 billion in cash reserves at year‑end 2025 and limited debt. This financial health provides flexibility for continued investment and growth initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$102.70
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$37.19
+176.1% from the low
52-Week High
$105.81
-2.9% from the high
1 Month
+61.75%
3 Month
+62.75%
YTD
+81.1%
1 Year
+167.4%
3Y CAGR
+8.1%
5Y CAGR
+22.3%
10Y CAGR
+27.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
35.1x
vs 54.0x median
-35% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.1%
vs +0.1% median
-1615% below peer median
Net Margin
9.5%
vs 4.5% median
+112% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $40.4B | 35.1x | -1.1% | 9.5% | Buy | -39.2% |
STM STM STMicroelectronics N.V. | $50.8B | 48.2x | -3.6% | 1.2% | Buy | +0.6% |
WOL WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | $1.7B | — | +0.1% | -233.9% | Hold | -45.5% |
DIO DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $5.2B | 48.4x | +6.1% | 4.5% | Buy | -34.2% |
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $78.0B | 73.7x | +22.7% | 22.1% | Buy | +1.7% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.3B | 59.6x | +0.0% | 5.0% | Buy | +2.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ON Dividend and Capital Return
ON returns 3.4% annually — null% through dividends and 3.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
13M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
393M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying -39.2% from the current price of $103. The bear case scenario is $23 and the bull case is $214.
02What is the ON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ON is $62 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (-27.0% from today), and the low-end target is $51 (-50.3%). The base case model target is $103.
03Is ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) stock overvalued in 2026?
ON trades at 35.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ON in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Concentration in Automotive & Industrial — A large share of ON Semiconductor’s revenue comes from the automotive and industrial sectors. (2) Global Supply Chain Disruptions — The company relies on a complex global supply chain that can be disrupted by geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, trade policy changes, or pandemics. (3) Technological Obsolescence Risk — ON Semiconductor must continuously innovate to keep pace with rapid semiconductor technology advances. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ON Semiconductor Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ON will report consensus revenue of $6.0B (-1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.43 (+66.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.9B in revenue.
06When does ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ON is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does ON Semiconductor Corporation generate?
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.0%. ON returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).